Tudjman is dead - Let Us Do It All Over Again
AIM Zagreb, 11 December, 1999
"By the Constitution and the destiny I was assigned in this most difficult moment to announce to the citizens of the Republic of Croatia and all the Croat women and men outside the homeland that the big heart of Dr. Franjo Tudjman, statesman and nation-builder, and the first president of modern, independent, sovereign, democratic Republic of Croatia, has stopped beating", in the night between Friday and Saturday, Vlatko Pavletic, chairman of the assembly and since a fortnight ago deputy of the president of the state, with these words addressed the Croatian public.
News about Tudjman's death did not come as a surprise, it had been expected for days. Especially since about two weeks ago when he was subjected to an urgent surgery in Dubrava hospital in Zagreb, when the final phase of his long, but never admitted illness began. Three years ago, American physicians discovered cancer of the stomach of Croatian president and forecast that he would live for several months. Medical treatment delayed this forecast. Even media which during all this time supported his deception of the public, are now openly writing that first metastasis appeared on the brain, and then in two places on the spine. But the malignant disease has officially never been mentioned, and the by now late president proclaimed asking about his health an anti-state activity, and not even at the moment of his death was it stated what he had actually suffered of.
Tudjman's body was immediately transferred to the presidential palace in Pantovcak where it will be exhibited until the funeral. A three-day mourning has been proclaimed in Croatia, and on Monday, on the day of the funeral, nobody will work in this country. The place of the burial at Mirogoj cemetery had been pre-determined and all things considered it will be a pompous state funeral. In this sense the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) has already acquired significant experience. One could say that the dress rehearsal for Tudjman's burial was the funeral of late minister of defence Gojko Susak which was directed by a known theatre director. Allegedly, the shots taken at Tito's funeral were also watched in Pantovcak. Regardless of whether and to what extent this experience will be used, the two partings can by no means be the same concerning one thing. Almost all world statesmen gathered at Tito's funeral, and hardly any significant name will be present at Tudjman's funeral.
Immediately after death of the president had been announced to the nation via Croatian Television, appropriate program started. The rhetoric of the ruling party proclaimed Tudjman the founder of the Croatian state and Croatian freedom, father of the nation, the greatest son of the Croat people, Croat Bismarck or Washington. The opposition were unable to resist this pathetic rhetoric. Ivica Racan, leader of the most powerful opposition Social Democratic Party, said that Tudjman's contribution to creation of Croatia would remain a lasting merit and that it was "our duty to preserve that". Such statements are partly an expression of conviction, but partly they are certainly result of fear that every critical word at this moment might return as a boomerang.
Only independent media mar the atmosphere of stressed pathos, stressing along with Tudjman's merit for creation and defence of the Croatian state, his negative heritage. As the eastern sin of his policy they mention the idea about division of Bosnia & Herzegovina; in foreign policy, due to Tudjman's lack of understanding of modern integration processes, Croatia is left alone and isolated; internally, his rule is marked by authoritarianism, crime and corruption, transformation plunder, accumulation of wealth in the hands of the political elite, the president's family being no exception in this, and catastrophic economic situation.
Presidential elections have to take place within sixty days. As parliamentary elkections have already been scheduled for 3 January, 2000, the question which is raised now is whether the Croats will go to the polls twice or whether parliamentary and presidential elections might be held simultaneously. HDZ does not wish to have the already scheduled elections postponed. First, shortening of the campaign is convenient for the ruling party. Officially, the campaign should have started on Monday, but it will certainly be postponed for a few days, during the Christmas and New Year's holidays there will surely be a pause, so that the pre-election competition will in fact last for no more than two weeks. Second, funeral ceremonies may powerfully affect election results. "One funeral is worth more than a hundred pre-election gatherings", noted a few days ago Maria Bruna Pustetto, expert for political marketing. She believes that the ruling party will use Tudjman's death for pre-election purposes, and that it had already abused his illness in this way, she also says that "for the party in power it is very fortunate to have a candidate who is dying", and that the opposition can hardly parry in such a campaign which will "certainly be remembered in history".
Candidates for Tudjman's successor had started to appear even before the post became vacant. HDZ has allegedly silently agreed that its candidate should be foreign minister Mate Granic who according to polls has high chances to succeed. Granic is popular perhaps because he makes the impression of being just the opposite of HDZ proverbial enragement; he is also the favourite of the international community probably because he always mended what quarrelsome Tudjman spoiled. However, Vlatko Pavletic who has so far been a total outsider both in the party and in public also expressed his interest for the presidential post. Since he has been replacing Tudjman he has imposed himself as a personage who should be seriously considered. He has manifested great self-confidence, when he suspected his telephone was bugged he openly attacked the secret police; he is also manifesting a great gift for political marketing, journalists accompany him on his customary Saturday tour of the central Zagreb marketplace. A president with a shopping bag instead of the leader who parades in uniform with a ribbon across his chest - this possibility would probably be agreeable to a large portion of Croatia. Vladimir Seks who has so far been the chief of HDZ assembly majority has also announced his candidacy for Tudjman's successor.
For the time being, the opposition is not united about the presidential candidate either. Although it was clear that Tudjman was leaving, the oppositionists have not practically even opened talks about it. A few days ago, Drazen Budisa, leader of the Social Liberal Party, expressed of his own initiative the interest for the post, and he - at least when the public is concerned - is not without a chance. But he can hardly count on winning the support of other opposition parties without which, he says, he would not even enter the race. This sticking his neck out was assessed in the ranks of the opposition as an attempt of exerting pressure and it was received with great reserve. Some parties have already made it public that they would not support him, four opposition parties which run in the elections together are allegedly inclined to nominate a non-partisan person for their candidate.
Polls show that at this moment, three persons stand the same chances: minister Granic, Liberal Budisa and his election partner, president of SDP, Racan. But, regardless who will live in Pantovcak after Tudjman, his term in office will probably not last long. There are already rumours about a transitional president who would see to implementation of constitutional amendments, reduction of the present enormous president's power, transformation of the presidential system into a parliamentary one, and then organisation of new elections. It is possible that the future assembly will also have a very short term in office.
Everybody is saying that after Tudjman great changes will occur. The international community has already sent signals of expectation that after death of the patriarch Croatia would set out on the road to democracy. Among the Croatian public guesses can also be heard that with the departure of the authoritarian president, new opportunities have opened for Croatia. People speak about the end of an era, about the beginning of a new time in which nothing will be the same. After announcement of Tudjman's death, one of the respected intellectuals shouted: "I am sorry president Tudjman died. Let us do it all over again!".
JELENA LOVRIC
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