The West and Presidential Elections in Macedonia
PREMATURE CONGRATULATIONS
AIM Skopje, December 9, 1999
Contrary to expectations (was it truly accidental), meeting of the EU Council of Ministers held on December 6, did not give a "green light" for the start of negotiations on Macedonia's associated membership which government officials in Skoplje claimed would start as of January 2000. Radmila Kiprijanova, Vice-President of the Government in charge of relations with the international integrations, explained this with the administrative slackness of the European Commission adding, just to be on the safe side, that the Euro-bureaucrats were usually more efficient in their work.
At that same meeting the European Union, through its Ministerial Council, i.e. immediately after the second round of presidential elections on December 5, expressed concern over the stability of Macedonia and demanded the conclusion of electoral process within specified time limits and, perhaps even more importantly, in a fair atmosphere. The Union representative in Skoplje, Pinto Thesheira from Portugal, informed about this Branko Crvenkovski, the leader of the opposition Social-Democratic Alliance on Tuesday and will inform the Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski, also the leader of VMRO-DPMNE, on Friday at the meeting scheduled after his return from abroad.
Commenting on the stand of the 15, Thesheira said that the elections should be concluded as soon as possible because such a situation "does not contribute to the internal stability of the country nor to its credibility although its boasts of having a stable democratic system". Although European Union was of the opinion that the irregularities which were registered at individual polling places would not have any bearing on the final outcome of the elections and Boris Trajkovski's victory (a VMRO-DPMNE candidate), that could easily influence Brussels position towards Skoplje as presidential elections have cast a doubt about the actual level of democracy in this country: "Perhaps our decision was rash" the EU Ambassador stated openly his doubts to the press. Thesheira's statement was rather embarrassing for the hosts.
Equally embarrassing was the conclusion that Macedonia did not deserve to be in a better company than "among countries of the Western Balkans", i.e. with FR Yugoslavia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Albania. "I do not recall anything similar happening at the time of elections in any of the Central and East European countries, i.e. among countries applying for membership". With this unhidden doubt the European diplomat obviously wanted to annul the effect of reports submitted by the OSCE Monitoring Mission after the second electoral round on November 14, which, to say the least, caused general puzzlement, and not only of not the opposition. Namely, the report stated that for the most part the elections were regular and that only in certain parts of the country certain omissions were registered. That is why OSCE originally decided not to send its monitors to the repeated voting.
It decided and then changed its mind. The optimistic conclusion of the OSCE monitors was firstly shaken by an avalanche of complaints from the opposition Social-Democratic Alliance to be finally annulled by the Supreme Court's decision: to repeat the second round of presidential elections in 230 (out of 2,973) voting units! True, mathematically observed it is only one tenth of electoral units, but as it turned out it was the tenth that would decide the new president of Macedonia. In addition, this concerned a very sensitive field of inter-ethnic relations, as most of those who had to exercise their voting right once again on December 5, were Albanians. On Monday, Chief of the OSCE Mission, Stivens still insisted on the thesis presented in the report claiming that it would not be fair to proclaim the entire elections irregular because only 7 percent of electoral units (on November 14) reported irregularities. On Sunday (December 5) this figure was halved.
The incident with European Union is only the latest in a series of unexpected turnabouts which the international community, personified in the European Union, United States, NATO, as well as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank has made before the local political public. Actually, everything started already after the first round of presidential elections in which Boris Trajkovski, the VMRO-DPMNE candidate, got the largest number of votes. The opposition Social-Democratic Alliance and certain media outside Government's control started a campaign claiming that the elections were rigged in the western parts of the country where followers of the Democratic Party of Albanians have "staged" the victory of their coalition partner (the decision of the Supreme Court confirmed this claim).
The statement of the American State Department issued a day after the State Electoral Commission presented preliminary election results, on its satisfaction with Trajkovski's victory and the democratic spirit in which the elections were organised, came as a total surprise. Similar congratulations from other Western countries members of NATO and European Union, soon followed. Without exception, they all pointed to the contribution that Trajkovski, as deputy chief of diplomacy, had rendered during the refugee crisis. Those trying to find a hidden meaning of this move observed certain nuances in the approach of European representatives in contrast to delighted and enthusiastic Americans. First of all, the statement from Brussels which the state media interpreted as congratulations of the European Union, came with some delay and included a note that, according to the Constitution, only the Union was authorised to proclaim the winner.
This was considered a kind of hidden reprimand addressed to Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski, who (no one knows whether he has done it as Prime Minister or the VMRO-DPMNE leader) proclaimed his close associate Trajkovski the winner immediately after midnight on November 15. In their statement, 15 European leaders warned that "uncertainty regarding the duration of the electoral procedure creates distrust in democratic institutions of the system, while imputations and mutual accusations can heighten tension between political and ethnic groups which undermines the internal stability of the country".
As far as the American policy is concerned, some consistencies could be observed: the Americans applied their old principle of supporting the candidate they find suitable not caring for the means used to attain the desired goal. That is nothing new as we know that the American President Clinton, disregarding the international etiquette, had congratulated Kiro Gligorov on his electoral victory back in 1994 at the time between two electoral rounds; all subsequent objections of the then opposition (VMRO-DPMNE) was futile. That is why many think: if Gligorov was acceptable for the West and the Albanians at that time, today it is Boris Trajkovski as the advocate of the policy of his party which is successfully cooperating with the Albanians, the policy which is commended by that same West for the relaxation of inter-ethnic relations. Analysts have noted that the candidate of the opposition Social-Democratic Alliance is much to blame for his bad rating in the West - both as a former communist and advocate of a unitarian state (contrary to the Albanian requests), as well as a moderate critic of NATO operations against FR Yugoslavia.
The western media have rung the alarm already during the presidential campaign: the "red" are coming back! No less important is that the regime-controlled media in the neighbouring FR Yugoslavia have openly supported Petkovski. That was reason enough for the West not to waste any tears...And now, when it is clear that Petkovski cannot change the electoral outcome, to complain to the West would be just like in that old satirical story: to complain to the waterworks administration.
AIM Skopje
ZELJKO BAJIC
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