Political Situation and Presidential Elections
"Coalition Split, But Did Not Fall Apart Yet"
Partners in the government of Macedonia just before repeated elections in about twenty electoral districts which will decide who the new president of the state will be, postponed the answer to the question of survival of the ruling coalition. For the time being it is evident that numerous variations are possible. However, much depends on who the new president will be.
AIM Skopje, 2 December, 1999
By mere hair's breadth the split of government coalition just a few days before voting in the second round of presidential elections in 230 polling stations of 24 electoral districts missed becoming the climax of the excitement on the Macedonian political scene in the past couple of months. The decision of the Supreme Court of Macedonia to repeat voting for about 160 thousand voters who will practically decide about the second president of the Republic of Macedonia caused visible nervousness in the ranks of the most powerful party in power, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Party - Democratic Party of Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE). This was caused on the one hand by the fact that according to the preliminary results of the State Election Committee the candidate of this party Boris Trajkovski was practically elected president - he even received congratulating notes from the leading world statesmen. On the other hand, it was believed that after the decision of the State Election Committee to reject most of the appeals lodged by proxies of the presidential candidate of the most powerful opposition party, the Social Democratic League of Macedonia, Tito Petkovski, the Supreme Court of Macedonia would confirm the decision of the State Election Committee.
Instead to celebrate the victory, VMRO-DPMNE and Trajkovski are fretting and hoping that on Sunday 5 December they will manage to get 56 thousand votes they lack and win. The foundation for such hope lies in the fact that 90 per cent of 160 thousand potential voters who will vote again are the Albanians, and it is assumed that they are controlled by the coalition partner, Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA). The votes of the Albanians Boris Trajkovski won in the second round of presidential elections were decisive in turning the minus of about 110 thousand votes in the first round into the advantage of about 140 thousand over the opponent Petkovski after the second round of voting. This curious electoral statistics of the second election round showed that in Western Macedonia where the Albanians are the majority population Boris Trajkovski won more votes than two presidential candidates of Albanian political parties in the first round. Higher turnout of voters which was close to 100 per cent was also evident. Of course, the opposition parties proclaimed it a forgery claiming that activists of DPA simply stuffed about 200 thousand ballots in the boxes in the name of that many Albanians. The fact that representatives of international monitoring groups and foreign diplomats in Skopje closed their eyes and their politicians congratulated Trajkovski on his victory was a sign for his VMRO-DPMNE, despite the figures which stared them in the face, that everything would end in the style of a nine days wonder.
However, it turned out that VMRO-DPMNE overlooked one thing that proved to be decisive. Members of the Supreme Court were nominated during the rule of SDSM. Their party affiliation was especially significant for their election. VMRO-DPMNE is not far from the truth when it claims that the Supreme Court reached a pro-SDSM decision. It is also evident that there have been irregularities during the voting. In such strained atmosphere VMRO-DPMNE made another wrong move: it accused minister of justice Vlado Kambovski that he had offered arguments to the Supreme Court to reach the decision on annullment of voting by giving them the number of undelivered voting cards. The climax was the demand of prime minister Ljupco Georgievski that Kambovski who is member of the Democratic Alternative submit resignation, and that foreign minister Aleksandar Dimitrov who is also member of DA explain allegations that he had lobbied among foreign observers and diplomats that presidential elections be proclaimed illegitimate. This was the immediate cause for the ministers from the ranks of DA to leave the session which gave rise to serious mutual accusations in the following couple of days. Everything pointed out to the possibility of dissolution of the government coalition, especially because VMRO-DPMNE officially and DPA with the statement of its leader Arben Xhaferi rejected the coalition platform offered by DA.
In this document which was made accessible to the Macedonian public by publication in pro-VMRO-DPMNE Nova Makedonija daily, DA among other demanded introduction of the new post of deputy prime minister who would directly control the economic sector and strengthen the position of the ministers. While handing this paper to his coalition partners, leader of DA Vasil Tupurkovski declared that his party would not remain in the coalition if it were not accepted. When he declared rejection of the declaration, spokesman of VMRO-DPMNE Ljuben Paunovski declared that it was a political pamphlet, a document which was "utterly frivolous, utterly irresponsible and utterly blackmailing". Although he criticised publication of the document in Nova Makedonija as a frivolous gesture of the editorial team, Paunovski in fact approved of its title - commentary that "Cile" (nickname of Tupurkovski) wished to be "capo di tuti capi"! In the end when it seemed that at the meeting of Tupurkovski with Georgievski DA would formally step out of the coalition, at first sight a surprising easing of tensions occurred and the leaders of the two parties agreed to continue contacts after completion of presidential elections. "We owe the nation that much", Tupurkovski declared explaining that if his party decided to leave the coalition it would cause legal chaos in the country: Savo Klimovski, member of DA and chairman of the assembly who is also acting president of the state until a new president is elected, would withdraw from the post, the parliament and the government would not be able to operate normally... Reconciliating statements arrived from the other party too. Paunovski declared that there were "no real problems in operation of the coalition", and leader of DPA Xhaferi stressed that they accepted the "triple coalition as the most productive one" although his right-hand man Menduh Thaci in his interview to the BBC said that DA had "neither the force, nor the morality, nor the decisiveness to come out of the coalition".
What can be expected to happen now? Some people think that "the coalition has split, but has not fallen apart yet" (Vecer daily from Skopje), others, like the opposition SDSM that "everything is possible now" including cooperation with DA which was until now, especially concerning the "case of Taiwan" sharply criticised. Much depends on what will happen after the repeated voting in the presidential elections on Sunday 5 December. According to certain estimates VMRO-DPMNE and Boris Trajkovski need about 80 thousand votes to make up for the lack of 56 thousand votes and win, even in case Tito Petkovski wins all the 10 per cent of Macedonian votes. With his rhetoric and qualifications about the Albanians in the course of the elections Tito Petkovski can hardly expect to win majority of their votes on Sunday. Xhaferi and especially his personnel manager and chief party organiser Thaci will have to confirm the thesis that Boris Trajkovski will be the first president of Macedonia to be elected by the votes of all the citizens of the state, not just the Macedonians.
Western countries and their representatives in Skopje in the past couple of weeks have made it clear that they believe that further prolongation of presidential elections was not good for the stability of the country and even the whole region. This is explained by their readiness to accept the outcome despite "certain irregularities". According to them, survival of the tripartite coalition is still needed, which they clearly demonstrated by messages sent a few days ago to leaders of the three parties in power. In the country which is for the past ten years usually looking up to its western mentors for solutions of its problems, this certainly is not insignificant.
Elections of Trajkovski would also relax the atmosphere within VMRO-DPMNE itself, but also relations among three partners in the coalition. Just as the victory of Petkovski would certainly cause further clashes within VMRO-DPMNE and continuation of serious conflicts in the coalition. In the latter case, complications of cohabitation of the government should be added, regardless of whether with or without DA, and Petkovski who would as the possible president of the state do his best to cause parliamentary crisis and scheduling new elections.
AIM Skopje
Iso RUSI
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