Second Round of Presidential Elections

THE EXPECTED AND WELL PREPARED SURPRISE

The second round of presidential elections in Macedonia has shown that even impossible is possible. Candidate of the opposition SDSM , Tito Petkovski, who in the first round had won 120 thousand votes more than Boris Trajkovski, a candidate of the leading ruling party VMRO-DPMNE, who came in second, by means of "electoral mathematics" practically lost the elections as he lacked almost 80 thousand votes in the second round.

AIM Skopje, November 17, 1999

The results of the second round of presidential elections in Macedonia are at the same time an (un)explicable surprise, as well as something that was to be expected. It was only logical that Petkovski would triumph in the second round after the "yellow card" the VMRO-DPMNE got in the first electoral round in the form of the advantage Tito Petkovski, as a candidate of the opposition Social-Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), had secured with 120 thousand votes more than their candidate Trajkovski. The more so as just before the second round the Liberal Democratic Party (LDK) invited its members to vote for Petkovski (their candidate Stojan Andov had won 110 thousand votes) and despite Vasil Tupurkovski's neutral behaviour and a "tacit" invitation of his Democratic Alternative (DA) to their followers to abstain from voting in the second round, it was more than clear that a large number of those who had given him his votes (some 150 thousand voters) would cast their vote in favour of Petkovski just because of "ideological closeness".

How could then the electorate of Macedonia in only two weeks turn Petkovski's advantage of 120 thousand votes into a minus of almost 80 thousand votes, i.e. the same number Trajkovski got more than Petkovski in the second round according to the unofficial results presented by the State Electoral Commission (DIK)?

No matter how absurd it may sound, the answer to this question is at the same time an argument in favour of a thesis that such a turnabout was to be expected. The "electoral mathematics" of the second round of Macedonian presidential elections opens up room for much wild guessing about what had exactly happened on Sunday, November 14. In the second round, Trajkovski won 380 thousand votes more than in the first. Then, votes in 17, out of more than 85 electoral units, mostly in Western Macedonia which are predominantly populated by the Albanians, went to Trajkovski. In the first round, when two Albanian candidates were still in the race, although without even a theoretical chance of making it to the second round and when the getting each other's measure of the Albanian parties boiled down to comparing one's rating within ones ethnic community, both parties got around 215 thousand votes, which is equal to the number they had won at the last-year's parliamentary elections.

At that time the two parties had participated together, while now presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA) got almost four times more votes than the candidate of the Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP): 165 thousand to 45 thousand votes. According to unofficial results, about 245 thousand Albanians cast their votes in the second round, although they had no Albanian candidate. That turnout was for over 30 thousand votes better than the one in the first round when they had two Albanians to choose from. In this region Trajkovski got three times more votes than Petkovski, while in a greater part of the other "Macedonian"(ethnic) communities he lost, as a rule. In addition, in some parts of Western Macedonia the turnout was around 90 percent and in others even 25 percent lower.

According to unofficial results (there is little chance for the official to be any different), the turnout it the second round of presidential elections was by almost 4 percent higher. Although according to experience the turnout in the second round, as a rule, is much lower if four candidates fall from the race because their voters usually do not turnout in the second round as thy lost their candidate. It was possible for the turnout to be even lower because of a "roundabout" invitation of DA and a direct call of the PDP to their voters to abstain from voting in the second round.

Even before that, especially during Sunday voting, the opposition SDSM and its satellite parties warned of the possible pressure on voters, rigging of elections and forging of election results. There were rumours that the DPA has promised its coalition partner VMRO-DPMNE 150 - 200 thousand Albanian votes if it fulfills the Albanian requests in return (legalization of University in the Albanian language, official use of the Albanian language, etc.). There were also contrary explanations that with their rhetoric, which, to say the least is nationalistic vis-a-vis the status of Albanians in Macedonia, the SDSM and its presidential candidate Petkovski have provoked a mass turnout of the Albanians and their voting against Petkovski. As always in life, the truth is somewhere between.

When it failed at getting the expected, its own president, the opposition SDSM announced protests against the rigging of elections, as they called it. The first one was held on Monday on the central city square in Skopje, while the second has been announced for Thursday when the 48 hour deadline expires, within which the DIK has to answer to as many as 170 objections of the SDSM to the regularity of elections in 17 electoral units in Western Macedonia. At the Skopje rally, as well as in all its reactions during Sunday voting, the SDSM kept to its old vocabulary. It mentioned patriotism, sale of Macedonian national interests, etc. also using terms like the "Albanian" and "Macedonian" voting places, and even claiming that the Albanians have elected the Macedonian president. There were allusions to the value of Albanian votes in comparison to Macedonian, etc. This only confirmed the impression about the SDSM playing populistic and (ethnic) Macedonian card, same as at the last-year's parliamentary elections.

There is an impression that this time too the SDSM was cutting its own throat. As far as the last-year's parliamentary elections are concerned, it is common opinion that the forming of a coalition and the victory of the DPMNE-VMRO, DA and DPA meant a definite end of the political radicalism on ethnic basis bringing about the easing of ethnic tensions, which in the previous eight years were constantly kept at a high level. Despite all this, and all its warnings during the Kosovo crisis (about Macedonia being turned into a corridor for the Kosovo refugees, about the disturbance of a delicate inter-ethnic balance because of a large number of received Kosovars, etc.), which turned out to be a shot in the dark, during presidential elections the SDSM kept to the formula that populism on ethnic basis would bring it votes of (ethnic) Macedonians. Perhaps, it was a case to some degree. But, at the same time, the SDSM did not realize that such rhetoric is counter-productive in relations with the international community.

Because, if they claim that the Albanians have elected the Macedonian president that can score them points on the internal scene and bring about new heightening of inter-ethnic tensions, but most certainly, will not meet with the approval of the Western quarters. That is why foreign monitors at the elections were not taken as a disadvantage, but rather as a plus in view of the fact that even the Albanians have voted for Boris Trajkovski. Although they mention some problems with voting in Western Macedonia, according to even first OSCE reports the elections were fair. The statement of State Department in which it commends Boris Trajkovski for his work during the Kosovo crisis and congratulates him on his elections, also carries weight. This could also be an indication that after he lands on the Skopje Airport on his way to Kosovo on November 23, President Clinton might meet with Trajkovski, who during his presidential campaign boasted of being Hillary Clinton's personal friend.

What future developments can be expected? It is almost certain that neither the DIK nor the Supreme Court would propose radical solutions such as the holding of a new second round of presidential elections. All the more so because the West is not prepared for something like that. The SDSM will continue its protests which can last several months, but cannot provoke meaningful popular reaction as, on the one hand, there are no social tensions among the population, and on the other, if the government tripartite coalition manages to survive, better times are ahead for the economy also. In that case, the leading opposition SDSM can be only furious because the new authorities have used its recipe for stealing votes it applied at parliamentary and presidential elections in 1994, using foreign monitors as a cover. It is of no use either that, one way or the other, conditionally speaking all relevant parties have found themselves opposite the VMRO-DPMNE and DA.

AIM Skopje

ISO RUSI