Who is Ruling Croatia?

Masked Ball Around Deathbed

AIM Zagreb, 22 November, 1999

Everything is nowadays starting to resemble a grand masked ball around a deathbed. For three weeks already Franjo Tudjman is lying down severely ill in Dubrava hospital in Zagreb, and nobody knows for sure what the state of his health really is, one cannot even say with certainty that he is alive. Indeed, on several occasions rumour has already spread that he is not alive, or that he barely is and that the physicians are just waiting for the approval of the family to turn off the appliances which are just technically keeping him alive, because allegedly he is clinically dead already.

Some of this has even been published by world news agency, but later they withdrew the information confused by statements of the team of doctors who continue issuing curt statements. At first they sparkled with tasteless optimism, and then they shyly admitted how serious the illness was when even Tudjman's closest associates could not keep it secret. They too did it only after independent media made it public that Tudjman had almost died of sepsis caused by streaming of pus from the inflamed colon, evidently scared of being caught unprepared by the developments about which they themselves either knew very little or were informed at second-hand, from a very carefully hidden source.

After very persistent urging of the media it was revealed that even the few associates who are allowed to go to Dubrava hospital were forbidden access to Tudjman's sick room, that only members of his family could enter it. That is how the myth about the illness of the head of Croatia acquired such proportions that it enabled manipulations not only of the public but even of the political leadership of the state with obvious wish to use Tudjman's illness as a powerful trump card in squaring accounts between factions. At the moment the initiative is in the hands of the faction of Tudjman's closest associates gathered around Ivic Pasalic which with minor deviations at moments when his state is extremely critical, insists that his recovery is proceeding steadily and well and that it is not necessary to take any emergency measures because the state normally operates.

This primarily means that there is no reason to take measures for temporary least of all permanent transfer of power from the ailing president (the Constitution prescribes that in case he is "permanently prevented", the head of the state is replaced by the chairman of the assembly who shall schedule presidential elections within two months). The other faction gathered around Vladimir Seks who is from the background supported by Mate Granic with his men, is against the false medical optimism and demands that constitutional mechanism of succession be at least put on the alert.

Motivation for that has increased especially since a highly intriguing article had appeared in Vecernji list which claimed without stating the source that before going to the hospital Tudjman had authorised Ljerka Mintas-Hodak, who is close to Pasalic, to replace him while he is absent and to organise, if need arises, election of the new president of the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) who would at the same time be the candidate for the new head of the state. The opinion prevails that Pasalic himself is behind this letter - although Ljerka Mintas-Hodak immediately denied that she had been given power of attorney to lead the HDZ - because he loses the most with the departure of Tudjman since he enjoys greater confidence of Tudjman than of HDZ, but he wishes to use the illness of his chief in order to manipulate the public, and even more his rivals within the party, but most of all Tudjman himself.

Nobody knows whether Tudjman is capable of communicating with the people around him, so that the central question of all internal political analyses is who has in fact ruled Croatia in the past few weeks. Obviously in order to cool down the red hot rumours in the lobbies, prime minister Matesa paid a short visit to Dubrava and stated afterwards that he had seen Tudjman (not making it clear whether Tudjman had seen him) and wished him quick recovery (not making it clear whether the patient had heard him and thanked him for his good wishes). In the division of roles on the Croatian political scene, Matesa is believed to be close to Granic which means also close to Seks. That is why reasons for this visit could be interpreted as an attempt to parry Pasalic, that is, to eliminate the possibility of his manipulating Tudjman's health.

But, there is plenty of reason for such a visit among others as well. While Tudjman is in the hospital, matters of state that must not be postponed are piling up. By logic of enormous power he has seized nobody can discharge the duties instead of him (promulgation of the law on temporary financing of the state budget, solemn oath of new members of the constitutional court...). But this primarily refers to the forthcoming parliamentary elections which were announced by Tudjman for three days before Christmas, but which he has not actually scheduled, and the time limit within which it should have been done in the end of last week has expired. Pasalic's faction believes that no fuss should be raised about that either because the elections can be postponed for a whole month and still take place within the time limit prescribed by law.

Therefore all that is necessary to do is wait for Tudjman to get well which is allegedly just a matter of days and then schedule elections instead of before New Year's day after it, and everything will be in perfect order. Pasalic's clan which controls a considerable part of bureacracy in the party and the state is obviously buying time during which, with an undertaking such as the one in Vecernji list or even bolder, it would use to take over control in the authorities which is evidently slipping out of its hands. But Seks controls the assembly which has suddenly from being the despised hen-coop (as one of the former Tudjman's favourites, actor Zlatko Vitez, called it) was promoted into a first-rate institution, and he announced passing a law or a Constitution amenment which would enable temporary transfer of power to the chairman of the assembly, which is not prescribed by the existing legislature). This means that Tudjman would continue being the "head of the state", but presidential duties would temporarily, until his recovery, be transferred to the head of the parliament Vlatko Pavletic.

The opposition has in principle accepted this idea, but demands that the Constitution first be applied and then amended. The Constitution prescribes, as mentioned, that in case he is "permanently prevented" to discharge his duties, the president of the Republic's term of office ends when the fact that he is prevented is established by the constitutional court at the initiative of the government. In the name of six opposition parties, Ivica Racan demanded that the procedure prescribed by the Constitution be respected, that the government initiate the procedure in which it would be established whether the head of the state was capable of discharging his duties. Only if it were determined that he is not permanently but temporarily uncapable to lead the state, conditions would be created for launching the initiative which Seks would come out with (once he managed with the help of HDZ deputies in the assembly, to impose this as the official stand of the party).

Besides, the opposition warns against a trap in the procedure they could be caught in if Seks's idea would be hastily carried out. If the provision on temporary prevention were regulated by law it would have to be confirmed by Tudjman which means that it would be a dead letter. That is why the opposition demands that temporary prevention be regulated either by the Constitution or the constitutional law because these are promulgated by the chairman of the assembly. And this would be done, as already said, only after the actual state of health of the head of the state is determined. This reservation was introduced because Pasalic most probably had to settle down to a compromise with Pasalic's faction when they decided to proclaim Tudjman "temporarly prevented", because a clause was introduced that the beginning and the end of his prevention was first announced by the head of the state himself, and only if he is not capable to do it, the government and the constitutional court would come up on the scene. And this practically means that Tudjman may rule from his sick bed, or even more probably somebody may do it in his name, in fact, for as long as he or they want to.

MARINKO CULIC