Is Bulatovic Leaving?

Reactions in Montenegro to Demand that Federal Prime Minister be Removed from Office

The topical question in Montenegro is not only whether Milosevic will sack Bulatovic, but whether Bulatovic's Socialist People's Party is getting ready to disassociate itself from Milosevic in order to survive his possible political death

AIM Podgorica, 12 Novemebr, 1999

From table to table, from corner to corner, in the night between Monday and Tuesday, rumour spread through "Casablanca": "Three hours have already passed since Milosevic sacked Bulatovic in Belgrade". "Casablanca" - that is the hypocoristic name of the big hall of "Montenegro" Hotel in Podgorica, which is the night meeting place of all important personages in Montenegro (from Djukanovic downward and all those who wish to be seen with him). News usually do not just spread in "Casablanca", they are created there - the role of life is just to confirm them later on.

It turned out differently in "Momir's case". The reason for this is untouchable: the power of guests of Montenegrin "Casablanca", including the most prominent among them, does not reach that far that they could decide about the destiny of social beings who are under jurisdiction of Slobodan Milosevic.

This is repeated in numerous variants: when decisions which might chgange its course are concerned, Montenegro lacks information the most, and this shortage is compensated by a multitude of words with no foundation. Everybody in Montenegro knows about all the statements of the leading persons of the Serb Radical Party (SRS), the Yugoslav United Left (JUL), and the Army of Yugoslavia (VJ) that Momir Bulatovic is not doing his job well. This led to the conclusion that his removal from the post was an accomplished fact, and this "accomplished fact" was the foundation for a number of theories what it meant for Montenegro. That is how the removal of Momir Bulatovic has become the most significant social fact even before he was "depreciated" and despite the fact that nobody at all knows whether or when this will happen. The known facts are insufficient for a reliable conclusion about the destiny of Momir Bulatovic. The fact that disapproval of the former Montenegrin president has started even among the cadre from immediate Milosevic's surroundings does not in itself imply his departure from the post of the federal prime minister. Side blows, equally as the announcement of his removal may imply just descending of Bulatovic to a new scale in the service at Milosevic's court, but in fact that he will remain at the same post. One should be reminded: until the very eve of his flight to Belgrade, Bulatovic had sharply criticised JUL. The order that Seselj be banished from Montenegro was issued by him and not Djukanovic. Bulatovic had gone to take the post of the federal prime minister with the intention to return a victor to Montenegro and with the image of himself as the more important Milosevic's follower and associate than both Seselj and JUL. This "importance" of his has faded in time; and it is not at all wise to eliminate the possibility that he will not be sacked from the post, but that he will just be given the status of domestic staff that occasionally courtiers of all ranks can snap at.

In the Socialist People's Party (SNP) in Podgorica, the closest associates of Momir Bulatovic unanimously reject the possibility that Milosevic might send their boss away in any foreseeable future. Predrag Bulatovic, vice president of SNP, explains for AIM the possible course of events in case it occurred to anybody to do this. "President of FRY, Slobodan Milosevic, would have to nominate somebody from Montenegro for the post of the new prime minister. If he wanted to nominate somebody else from SNP, he would have to count on the split in our party, and this is a miscalculation. He could offer the mandate to the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) which is at this moment also improbable. If Milosevic offered the mandate to somebody from Serbia, it would automatically imply dissolution of Yugoslavia. Such a move would force even the Socialist People's Party to take a different track".

Due to all this, Predrag Bulatovic thinks that all the stories about Momir Bulatovic being sacked are just part of the efforts aimed at weakening Yugoslav forces in Montenegro.

The unwillingness to step in and fill the possibly vacancy at the top of FRY was on several occasions expressed by high officials of DPS, as well. "Of course, we will not accept it. We have no intention at all to try to save Yugoslavia with those who have done their best to destroy it", Miodrag Vukovic, president of the executive board of DPS and advisor of president Djukanovic for internal policy, was resolute.

After this, everything is even more vague. If Milosevic gets rid of Bulatovic, it turns out that the result of this move will be banishment of Montenegro from FR Yugoslavia. There are certain serious people in Montenegro who assess that this is exactly what Milosevic wants. According to the advocates of this theory, after the expiry of his term in the office of the president of FRY, it would suit him best to serve a few more terms in the office of the president of independent Serbia. His statement that "Montenegro may freely choose its own way" is interpreted in this sense. It is not easy, however, to explain why either Milosevic or Djukanovic have agreed to negotiations on redefining the relations within FRY. It is quite clear that both have a need to buy some time, but what they will use it for, it is an unfathomable secret.

For a long time already, the political local gossip is speculating that there are serious differences between Momir and Predrag Bulatovic concerning this issue. The two Bulatovics, of course, publicly deny it. However, ever since the time of NATO intervention, it is obvious that differences do exist. Predrag Bulatovic made many statements that could be interpreted as his disassociation from Milosevic. Those not well informed were taken aback by the statement of the other vice president of SNP Zoran Zizic about readiness of his party to accept new solutions in the organisation of FRY which would lead to its decentralisation.

There are serious signs that both in DPS and in SNP there are those who advocate normalisation of relations between former comrades. Svetozar Marovic, chairman of Montenegrin parliament is usually marked as the leader of this faction within DPS, and within SNP the already mentioned Predrag Bulatovic.

Vice president of SNP, Predrag Bulatovic, confirms that DPS and SNP have taken the step which had until recently been unconceivable - they agreed that to begin open talks. According to his estimate, the platform of Montenegrin government on redefinition of relations in FRY is unacceptable as such, but if it is taken as a maximalist offer subject to changes, it is possible to find a compromise. "Both we and the leadership of DPS have to be aware that straining of relations between us may lead Montenegro to catstrophe", says Bulatovic not concealing hope that despite personal intolerance arisen during the conflict, this dialogue could be fruitful: "They say they are in favour of a joint state, we say that we are in favour of a joint state; we declare ourselves as a civil party and they declare themselves to be a civil party; they say Montenegro is a state, we do not deny that, on the contrary, we say that Montenegro has its statehood, its history and tradition and that it cannot be unequal in any community; they say we are Milosevic's, we say that we are rooted in the very tissue of Montenegro; we tell them that they are the servants of the West, they say that they advocate authentic interests of Montenegro. On the factual level, conditions have been created for a dialogue in which we can find adequate solutions", says Predrag Bulatovic.

The new era of rapprochement between DPS and SNP was first reported to the Montenegrin public by the Liberals. "It is quite clear that SNP is just putting up an act of an opposition party in Montenegro. They are in fact together with DPS waiting for the fall of Slobodan Milosevic, and then at a convenient moment, one of its factions which is aware that Milosevic belongs in the past will establish a link again with the Democratic Party of Socialists. This is an operation which is already under way", claims for AIM Slavko Perovic, deputy and until recently the leader of the Liberal League of Montenegro (LSCG). Perovic explains: "It can be detected by the fact that not a single essential issue which would lead to unmasking of this system as autoritarian is neither opened by SNP, nor are we supported by it when we open such issues in the parliament. It is also evident that their joint attack has started against the Liberal League as the only party which demands changes of the existing mutation of the communist system. The existing division in Montenegro is convenient for both the ones and the others, because the whole mechanism is adjusted so as to keep Djukanovic's electorate homogeneous under the pretext of defence of Montenegro, and Bulatovic's under the pretext of defence of Serbdom and Yugoslavdom".

The latest episode with Momir Bulatovic is just another sign that Montenegro is in some form of cosmic chaos in which all possibilities have equal chances. Momir Bulatovic might, of course, be sacked by Milosevic because he has not done his job; he can just as well be removed by Predrag Bulatovic in order to ensure survival in post-Milosevic's era. Leaders of DPS and SNP may line up their followers under military banners opposite to each others. They may equally set out to make plans on new brotherhood in order to preserve peace and joint power.

Esad KOCAN

(AIM)