WILL THERE BE ELECTIONS IN SERBIA

The authorities and the opposition

The fact that the Serbian opposition has unanimously demanded the holding of elections within such a short period of time almost certainly means that there won't be any elections in foreseeable future. Many representatives of the authorities have already stated their opinion on this subject by saying that "they had better and more urgent things to do" than to organize early elections.

AIM, PODGORICA, October 23, 1999 (From AIM correspondent from Belgrade)

Recently, practically all important Serbian opposition parties have signed a document demanding from the authorities the calling and holding of the elections at all levels (local, republic and federal) by the end of the year. At the same time that document specified the election terms and conditions under which the opposition was willing to participate in them - a proportionate system, the OSCE control and maximum eight electoral units. Late this week, on the proposal of the Serbian Revival Movement (SPO), in all municipalities in which the opposition is in power (taken altogether the opposition "covers" municipalities with some four million inhabitants) municipal assemblies have given this initiative a legal form demanding from the Assembly, Government and Presidents of Serbia and FR Yugoslavia to do everything that is in their power urgently so that the elections could be held in December this year, at the latest.

The fact that the Serbian opposition has unanimously demanded the holding of elections within such short period of time almost certainly means that the elections will not be held soon. In any normal state such demand of the opposition would be immediately put through the regular parliamentary procedure. In a state in which nine years after the first multi-party elections the multi-party system exists only formally (incidentally, such a system is not recognized either in theory or practice of European countries) the haste with which the opposition is demanding the soonest possible holding of elections is interpreted and received with less seriousness than the authorities of any western country would treat such an initiative if it were coming from marginal groups (such as "lovers of Yoga flying", etc.). Many representatives of the authorities have already had their say on this subject and stated that "they had better and more urgent things to do" than to organize early elections which "all kinds of low life parties" are demanding.

The Radical leader Dr.Vojislav Seselj, said something like "we won't hurry just to spite you" and intimated that parliamentary channels for this initiative of the Serbian opposition will remain blocked. Also, there will be no round table of the authorities and opposition. At this week's session of Belgrade Parliament some moments before he left the session in protest, from the speaker's platform Seselj sent a message to the SPO and DS delegates: "There will be elections, regular but not extraordinary ones and certainly not on the date you have chosen.". This practically means that the regime has agreed to hold the elections but not before next September when the deadline for local and federal elections expires.

In the meantime, the red and black coalition has decided to answer to the opposition's initiative for early elections at all levels already at the next session of the Serbian Assembly scheduled for next week with a kind of counter-initiative and a provocation. At that session the delegates will be presented a draft law on local self-government. This legal project has been prepared already last May and has been pulled out of drawers just now with the objective of offering the opposition something it could not possibly accept and changing the direction of the story on extraordinary elections. Its movers know full well that this law will never be put to vote unless the Left-Radical coalition decides to participate in the elections alone.

The key provisions of this new bill relate to the expansion of the Government's jurisdiction in regard to local authorities. On the one hand, this law would introduce a totally new mode of electing deputies to local assemblies (one-round majority elections) which would, in general opinion, suit best the Socialists and most probably reduce the number of opposition municipalities in Serbia. On the other hand, this law also envisages that in case of "collateral electoral mistake" and possible victory of opposition in a commune, the Republican Government will have far more authority to totally subjugate such a community and even disband the disobedient local bodies. The Socialist and Radicals are ready to adopt that law already at the next assembly session and thus make it clear to the opposition that its rules on extraordinary elections stand no chance of being adopted.

At the same time, the ruling coalition is lately frequently mentioning the possibility of introducing emergency management in some communities. Belgrade is most frequently mentioned because of "criminal way of running the city". Such threats with emergency management and frequent stories on alleged criminal acts of the opposition city authorities are actually a reply to the criticism which has been coming from city squares all over Serbia in recent weeks - troubles of this state have not originated at the local level, but at the top. Or as Nebojsa Covic, President of the Democratic Alternative has remarked recently - The local authorities cannot be blamed for the loss of Kosovo and Metohija and we all know who can.

After the first step made and agreement reached on election terms, the Serbian opposition now has to make the second step which everyone is fearing considering the evident inclination of the "opposition army" to disintegrate even before the true battle for power begins. Since it is rather obvious that the authorities are avoiding any talks about new elections, especially according to the rules offered by the opposition, the inevitable question arises - what next? Slobodan Vuksanovic, the DS Vice-President, recently said that the opposition will wait two weeks at the most for the reply of the authorities and then decide on the forms of persistent non-institutional pressure to be exerted until all opposition demands are met.

The "non-institutional pressure" exerted so far was rather poorly organized and assessed. Whoever came to the idea that the opposition should take to the streets (be it western advisers or opposition leaders themselves) late last summer, he has certainly pushed it into something poorly organized and badly timed losing sight of the fact that Milosevic is a master of the survival game in a system full of self-defence mechanisms which he has improved over the years. The next step and new forms of non-institutional pressure also imply joining the game of the strongest opposition party - SPO and its leader Vuk Draskovic. In his last week's interview to the RFI the SPO leader called the protests organized all over Serbia "shameful", with "degrading results for the opposition" and accused the Alliance for Change (SZP) for that calling it a "political corpse". For the time being, Djindjic and others from the SZP have not reacted to Draskovic's accusations stating that they were not looking in the SPO's direction but rather in the direction of the regime, which was their only target. Naturally, all this can easily mean that already tomorrow the opposition leaders will open up a new round of mutual imputations and animosities. Or perhaps their vanity will wake up supported by the unavoidable regime media.

In contrast to that of the opposition, the next step of the authorities is much easier to predict. Milosevic and his team, for whom the term "lose the power" is acquiring the meaning "to lose everything", have not much choice. They are well aware that the unity of the opposition that has been achieved with regard to election terms is rather fragile and that it still carries the sign "Fragile, handle with care". For example, Vuk Obradovic's Social-Democratic Party has withdrawn from the SZP on the day it was transformed into election coalition not wishing to lose its own identity in that rather binding coalition. Milosevic and his men also know that of all mathematical operations the Serbian opposition is best versed in the "multiplication of divisions". They also know that almost each of their today's sworn enemies has tried to eat from the power table and that it would perhaps be worth trying once more. But, that takes quite a lot of time.

Counting on the opposition's impotence to ensure the holding of early elections by exerting non-institutional pressure (street protests, strikes, blockades), the Left-Radical coalition will, at the same time, block all institutional ways, buying time and waiting for the regular elections, but also for the final decision of Montenegro on its position within the Yugoslav federation. Until that happens, the SPS and the Radicals will hold their regular congresses and celebrate great victories while Djindjic and the others will for the umpteenth time be called "spies and foreign mercenaries" while the reconstruction and development of the country will be blown out to monumental proportions by the RTS.

However, in this entire election story the hardest thing to predict are unforeseeable developments which are always possible in this divided, isolated and exhausted state and which can bring about such turn of events that very few people, even here, can imagine. Something like that is especially possible in a situation when unsuccessful, increasingly nervous and repressive authorities (there are more and more bans, court trials, car explosions, unexplained liquidations or regime "lynches") stand face to face with the equally unsuccessful and increasingly impatient opposition which has lost so many elections until now than anyone else in the neighbourhood - i.e. the arrogant and haughty authorities, which obviously think that they will last forever and the opposition which thinks that conditions are ripe for the "euthanasia" of those same authorities.

Nenad Lj. Stefanovic

(AIM)