Where is Montenegro Going?

Redefinition or Referendum

AIM Podgorica, 11 October, 1999

It seems that after all Serbian-Montenegrin negotiations on the future of FRY will take place. Spokesman of Milosevic's Socialists Ivica Dacic set the date and the place of the "historical" meeting for 26 October in Belgrade. This message was assessed by Montenegrin prime minister Filip Vujanovic as a "positive signal and voice of reason of Belgrade ruling coalition which has so far acted very unreasonably".

Nevertheless, the announcement of the forthcoming meeting should not be taken lightly or for granted. Even the place of the meeting is controversial, at least formally. "We answered that we are ready for talks on a high party level, which would take place in Montenegro", said head of the club of deputies of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in the Republican Assembly Dragan Djurovic. Reasons which would condition sincere talks and reaching of an agreement are even more controversial.

The platform offered by Montenegro to Belgrade significantly limits Milosevic's power primarily when illegal issuing of money is concerned, as well as control of the army and the possibility of outvoting the "smaller federal unit" in the federal assembly. It is not clear either what could be the motives which would now induce Podgorica to make a deal with Milosevic, leader of the "evidently autocratic and undemocratic regime" and reinforce his position in this way after the two-year war in which Montenegro is considered to be a winner. At least for the time being.

It is more probable that this is an expression of a wish of the one and the other party to buy time. Milosevic has already explained to his associates - it is necessary for the regime to survive this winter, everything will be much easier after that. In this context, the proposal for initiation of negotiations with Podgorica can be very simply interpreted. Milosevic wishes to show once again that he is the boss and wants to make the impression in Serbian public that the future of FRY depends solely on him.

Serbia's general acceptance of the offer for initiation of the talks is convenient for Djukanovic's regime, too. The (demanded) signal to the international community has been sent that Montenegro is ready to try to preserve the federal state even if it means that it will have to talk with the "abhorred" Milosevic. This also implies "democratisation of Belgrade via Podgorica" with adequate financial aid of the West, of course. The latest public appearance of Montenegrin president also leads to this conclusion.

" Unjustly attention has been focused on the question whether Montenegro will remain in the community with Serbia or leave it. The basic question is whether Montenegro will continue to pursue its policy of reforms and whether it will manage to lead the other part of the community towards them", explained Djukanovic to the participants of the international debate on the topic "Montenegro - facts and future".

In the meantime, while waiting for the (im)possible agreement or the convenient moment to play the trump card of "uncooperativeness of the other party", both the regime in Belgrade and in Podgorica focused on resolving their problems at home.

Therefore, there is still no clear answer to the question what Montenegrin regime wants when the future of FRY is concerned. Spokesmen of the regime seem to be intentionally stimulating confusion. Prime minister Filip Vujanovic, for instance, was precise: "Negotiations should be given a chance. There is no need to speak about independence of Montenegro as a threat to Serbia in these negotiations, and there is no need to think that the Platform is an act of treason and secession from Serbia..."

At the same time Ranko Krivokapic, vice-president of the Social Democratic Party which along with DPS and the People's Party forms the Montenegrin ruling coalition called To Live Better, says: "Referendum on independence will certainly be held. This is not a question of state borders any more, it is a question of fundamental freedom. Because who would be ready to imprison Montenegro in a community with Serbia which will not even resemble a democratic state for another twenty years".

Montenegrin opposition is offering its reply to these dilemmas for months. "Djukanovic's regime is doing its best to keep Montenegro firmly shut inside FRY and for a long time deprived it of the possibility to become part of the civilised world as a democratically and economically organised state", claim leaders of the Liberal League who persistently advocate Montenegrin state independence. Counter-accusations arrive from the other side. "Head of the regime (Djukanovic) and his followers are doing their best, contrary to the people's will, to carry out the task given to them by their Western masters and dissolve FRY", claim followers of Bulatovic's Socialist People's Party almost every day remaining firmly loyal to "Yugoslavia with no alternative".

With no doubt, there are numerous calculations. Officially, survival of FRY is not questioned at all, under the condition that the demanded "equality" of Montenegro is accepted by relevant political subjects in Belgrade. In this way responsibility for a possible dissolution of the federation is like a hot potato thrown into the lap of the other party. This also buys time which is necessary for reduction of the existing tensions inside Montenegro caused by different views of necessity of the existence of the joint state.

On the other hand, driven into a corner by queer moves of the federal administration, with its policy Montenegrin regime is increasingly reducing the need for further existence of FRY. All the members of the main board of DPS, for instance, were given the task to prepare alternative programs in their respective fields, as it was already done with the customs, the banking system, power generation, trade... Reconstruction of Montenegrin government and the club of deputies of DPS was also announced which according to unofficial announcements is expected to go in the direction of reinforcing the pro-Montenegrin faction in state administration. It should be added that Montenegro is already establishing its own foreign political network, abolishing visas for foreigners contrary to the will of the federal administration, passing its own Law on citizenship and making preparations for constituting a currency committee and introducing its own currency.

It is most interesting that both directions of actions of Montenegrin authorities - in favour and against FRY - can find powerful corroboration in the disposition of the public. The latest public opinion polls show that a large number of Montenegrins (44 per cent) have turned their back to any form of union with Serbia. About twenty per cent of the citizens of Montenegro consider confederation an ideal state community. But the minority which supports unconditional survival of FRY is not giving up on the struggle for it relying on its strongest argument - loud threats with an armed conflict. Tribal gatherings of support to the existing community were held again last weekend. The messages conveyed from them are quite clear. In the proclamation "adopted" at the gathering in Rijeka Crnojevica it is stated: "Cursed be every Montenegrin who denounced joint life with brotherly Serbia".

This makes the prevailing tactic of work on "two fronts" understandable. Everything indicates that time of final decision is approaching. Rumour can be heard that at the meeting of DPS main board the approximate deadline was set for a possible agreement to be reached with Serbia. Allegedly, it is the end of this and the beginning of next year. If an agreement on redefining relations between Montenegro and Serbia is not reached by then, the referendum will be scheduled, the "well-informed" claim. However, it is necessary to be cautious, because "we must take care about all the citizens of Montenegro, those who are in majority, but also the minority group, those who are aware and those who live in deception..." president of Montenegro warns.

Zoran Radulovic (AIM)