Controversial Invitation to Luxembourg

Ultimatum or Dialogue

AIM Podgorica, 14 October, 1999 (By AIM correspondent from Belgrade)

President of FR Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic, who appears very rarely among "ordinary" people (even the Socialists say "only when it is absolutely necessary"), appeared last Monday (11 October) in Leskovac and gave a speech which was interpreted by many as the first indirect announcement of early elections in Serbia. Although his speech included the message which the Socialists could very soon choose to be their pre-election slogan, it is quite possible that the true goal of Milosevic's appearance in Leskovac was somewhat different, that is that the president of FRY had estimated that 11 October was one of those days when "it was absolutely necessary" to do it.

That day, ministries of EU expected members of Serbian opposition in Luxembourg, and according to certain announcements this meeting should have been an expression of the greatest support ever of the international community to those in Serbia who are fighting for the change of the regime. After this meeting, Serbian opposition should have earned the status of a "serious parther". In the end it turned out that many of the invited have not gone to Luxembourg, that Serbian opposition seemed to have been invited according to the principles "we do not care what you think, it is only important that you agree", and that Milosevic perhaps had hurried to address his followers in the south of Serbia and neutralise the possible success of the opposition without actual need.

That the gathering in Luxembourg was not quite ordinary, it became quite evident among other because for days before it was held, regime controlled media in Belgrade had intensified accusations of the leaders of the opposition of high treason all over again. Daily Politika, for instance, claimed that EU had invited the group of "verified NATO collaborationists and separatists" and that they had been given special assignments aimed at "enslaving the Serb people". Politika's commentator threatened the "puppets" to "watch what they are doing": "They should keep in mind that they are being carefully watched by every citizen who knows that the West is continuing the ruthless aggression against our country" was the message of this journal which was similar to the one published by Radio-Television Serbia. What is this time especially interesting in otherwise stereotypical commentaries of regime-controlled media and spokesmen was the fact that they have all had the text of the document - declaration that EU had intended to offer to Serbian opposition and the invited representatives of non-governmental organisations. Leaders of the League for Changes claimed later that the y had got the text of this document at a minute to twelve - on the eve of the planned journey.

They claim that on the eve of the scheduled meeting in Luxembourg Finnish ambassador in Belgrade showed to the participants of this gathering the text of the declaration in which apart from the demand for democratization, the stand of EU is mentioned which obliges democratic parties in Serbia to extradite president of FRY Slobodan Milosevic to the Hague Tribunal once they come to power. A part of potential passengers for Luxembourg, primarily all those from the League for Changes interpreted this text of the declaration as a sort of dictate of EU and another piece of evidence of "the wrong approach of the international community" to what is happening in this space. This approach was advocated not only by the League for Changes but also by the largest opposition party, Serb Revival Movement (SPO) whose representative also refused to set out on the journey referring to the arrogant and insulting approach of the EU. In their statements the opposition leaders made it clear that what bothered them the most in the offered document was the obliging stand about sending Milosevic to the Hague. A little later, an additional explanation arrived that none of those who were planning to come to power in Serbia had an intention to evade international obligations and rules, but that they were generally annoyed by the approach of EU which was increasingly hard to understand and appears as a dictate without any serious attempt and effort to understand the full complexity of the "Serbian story".

On Monday 11 October, mostly representatives of the parties from Voivodina and representatives of non-governmental organisations from Serbia appeared in Luxembourg, along with prime minister of Montenegro Filip Vujanovic. Among the passengers was also Vuk Obradovic, president of Social Democracy who stressed that he was travelling solely as the leader of his party and not as one of the leaders of the League for Changes. Instead of the invited Dusan Mihajlovic, president of New Democracy, Rebeka Srbinovic, spokeswoman of this party, appeared in Luxembpourg and in the name of Serbian opposition handed the ministries of EU the text of a declaration written in Belgrade in the language and style which the opposition leaders considered to be incomparably more appropriate than the offered one. All those who were in the end present at the gathering claim that nobody asked them to sign anything and that the whole affair was a simple misunderstanding. The EU itself is signing such declarations regardless of whether those this document is addressed to approved it or not. Among participants of the gathering there were also speculations that what was offered in the declaration was not in fact so rigidly formulated and bad for the Serbian opposition, but that the problem had occurred because of inadequate translation of the document.

That same evening, immediately after the end of the gathering with the rump composition of participants calcuations began about who had suffered a greater loss and why - those who have remained at home or those who have participated at the meeting with ministries of EU. Those who had participated at the meeting, almost all of them, claimed that it was worth their while and that it was a shame that due to misunderstanding an opportunity was missed to have at least part of the sanctions introduced against FR Yugoslavia (and Serbia in particular) lifted. Few Yugoslav journalists who followed this gathering say that never had a larger number of reporters and microphones in a single place waited for somebody coming from Belgrade and that it might have been wiser to go to Luxembourg and publicly say what was unacceptable for the opposition. In the name of the League for Changes, Zoran Djindjic claimed that nothing was lost and that this gathering in Luxembourg was "a good beginning of formalisation of relations of EU". People from the League for Changes believe that the project "power for democracy" which implies aid in power sources for certain cities in Serbia has not been endangered. They are also convinced that by mid November at the latest a new meeting with the ministers of EU will be organised, and that probably a translator might by then be found in Belgrade who would have the feeling for the meaning and intonation of what was written in the offered document.

Certain foreign media tried to explain the refusal of a part of the Serbian opposition to go to Luxembourg by "fear of Milosevic" who is still in the position to control "his opposition" or to accuse it for high treason. In one of the analyses it was possible to find the thesis according to which EU had acted according to American dictate again and "intentionally offered a document which was unacceptable for most of the opposition. According to this interpretation, the USA have reached a conclusion that there was definitely no sufficiently capable opponents of Milosevic in Belgrade, and that it was better to give up on the impotent and disunited opposition and push Serbia to solve things according to the "Romanian model". And then see what happens. Majority of foreign media observed that this was a badly organised gathering with a quite odd and heterogeneous list of the invited and a text of the declaration which did not respect the reality and had an evident dose of arrogance in its approach to the opposition.

Everything that was happening concerning the meeting in Luxembourg leads like so many times before to the conclusion that Milosevic still has two enemies (the opposition and the international community) which are in fact helping him stay in power. The disunited Serbian opposition, its vain leaders who are inclined towards corruption and who are used to fighting only for their small share of power, have a long time ago become one of the "pillars" Belgrade regime relies on and a source of its power. Similar could be said for international community. In many critical moments the West treated Milosevic as a statesman without whom there could be no peace in the whole region. When Milosevic finally stopped being "the factor of peace and stability in the Balkan" , NATO intervention followed, bombing, destruction of civilian targets and in the end total collapse of western policy in Kosovo where a multiethnic community was promised, and then power was in fact given to the extremist faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army.

All these moves of the West denied not only the benevolence of the Western governments but threatened the position of the opposition which in its attempts to introduce some changes has always relied on and referred to principles of western democracies. Similar could be said about the latest move of EU and the declaration which demanded promises on extradition of Milosevic to the Hague. The stand concerning cooperation with the Hague Tribunal should not be questionable for anybody (not even for Milosevic himself who took this obligation when he signed the Dayton accords), but insisting on this provision at this moment is quite risky for the opposition, in view of the fact that a lot is at stake and that the probability is very high that the regime will use all possible means to defend itself from the opposition which is ready to sign anything of the kind.

A few days after Luxembourg, vehement discussions still continue about whether the opposition should have gone or not. In her regularly published column in Belgrade daily Danas, former leader of the Civil Party of Serbia, Vesna Pesic accused Serbian opposition (her successor at the head of the party Goran Svilanovic, inclusive) of behaving unwisely and absence of readiness for a dialogue with the world. Absence of readiness to talk with the world (if this is what has happened in this case at all) has brought the opposition parties to a position to finally begin a serious dialogue among themselves. The decision of a part of the opposition not to go the gathering has not deepened the gap amng them. On the contrary, the cooperation among the opposition has reached a much higer level than before. For instance, Vuk Draskovic's Serb Revival Movement and Zoran Djindjic's Democratic Party, for the first time after almost two years acted quite harmoniously, issued identical statements and hinted that this "idyll" might last and even turn into joint protests if the regime refused to agree to opposition election conditions.

As both parties have promised, another gathering will be scheduled for November. Serbian opposition is expected to show in the meantime whether there is in its ranks what it has so far lacked the most - the energy and wisdom for democratic changes. The international community is expected to finally show that it is ready to change something in its attitude towards Belgrade: for Milosevic' s regime it was one of the "dearest enemies", for Serbian opposition it resembles somebody who pushes you overboard and then throws a rope to save you.

Nenad Stefanovic

(AIM)