FISHING IN MUDDY WATERS

AIM, ZAGREB, October 11, 1999

Croatia will turnout for the elections in the same way as it did in these past ten years since HDZ had come to power, which means that Tudjman's party will set the rules of the electoral race, i.e. pass the electoral law whereby the number and structure of electoral units will be regulated. The first attempt to do that in agreement with the opposition, which was initiated last year, definitely failed last week as HDZ did not keep its word that the law on public television would be adopted in package with the electoral law.

As usual, the two sides are casting aspersions and accusations on each other for undermining what had practically been already agreed upon. Thus, the impression that neither is truly interested in reaching an agreement, could be false and this could easily turn out to be a part of pre-election strategy. Actually, this agreement would in interest of both sides because straining the relations with the opposition which could get its chance to form the Cabinet by the end of the year, could prove rather detrimental for the HDZ. The opposition is not willing to strain the relations either and risk a possibility of Tudjman and his party refusing to surrender power if they lose the elections.

The two sides became disinterested in the negotiations only in the final stage: the HDZ because it could not surrender one of the main levers of its power - the television - at this crucial moment, and the opposition because the negotiations took forever and lasted up to the elections when it is not psychologically wise to be in such a "close embrace" with a direct rival in the power race. That is why the HDZ negotiators are probably right when they accuse the opposition for showing up at the last negotiations round with a demand that it knew full well would be turned down - the release of duty of all HRTV editors who are on the management bodies of the ruling party.

Be that as it may, a paradoxical consequence of the failed negotiations is that now, when an attempt was made to resolve these question by consensus, there is an even greater legal mess than was the case on the eve of the last elections. Namely, the negotiations have taken so long without giving any fruit that now, approximately three months before the elections nothing is known about the elections: the date of their holding, the applicable law, the number of electoral units... In other words, practically nothing is known. Nevertheless, underneath the mask of failed negotiations lies an implicit agreement of the two largest political groups in the country - the HDZ and its right wing satellites on the one side, and the SDP (Racan) - HSLS (Budisa) coalition with small regional parties which are part of its network, on the other.

This agreement is reflected in the fact that both sides have shown equal readiness to renounce the combined, majority-proportionate electoral law and opt for the proportionate one. Its basic feature is that it passively follows the balance of powers on the political scene, i.e. it rules out a possibility of supremacy in parliamentary representation, which the HDZ had profusely exploited till now. Consequently, at these elections the opposition would get its first chance to use it. By abandoning this electoral multiplier the two sides have opted for a peaceful electoral finish which will be probably concluded by some kind of a division of powers which has probably already been arranged.

This has put all other opposition parties on the defensive as, in essence, the proportionate electoral system is a race of party apparatuses and bureaucracies which they have not developed yet, while the majority-proportionate system favours the reputed individuals which smaller opposition parties have many. In addition, the SDP-HSLS axis has frozen its relations with other opposition parties although they were rather developed within the so called "group of six" which is made up of all parliamentary opposition parties. That is why four smaller parties of the so called civil center - Tomic's HSS, Gotovac's LS, Jakovcic's IDS and Cacic's HNS - have recently formed coalition and, according to the semi-official announcements, the last three are seriously considering the possibility of forming one party after the elections.

The coming together of four parties of the center is based on the good tradition from the last parliamentary elections when in 1995 a similar four-member group (at that time with the HKDU of Marko Veselica, but without Vlado Gotovac's LS) formed a coalition called "The New Assembly" and to general surprise won close to twenty percent of votes. That was a triumph of the so called "synergy effect" when parties win much more votes when running together than individually, which was a telling proof that small parties could also play an important role if they make well-thought-out and bold moves at the right time. Admittedly, in these four years the circumstances have changed. The first effects of the HDZ erosion could be sensed already then, but the opposition was too weak and dumb stricken to be able to form an important political bloc, as Racan and Budisa did recently. since

But even so surrounded by the weakened but still vital HDZ and ambitious and increasingly influential SDP-HSLS coalition

• the successors of the "New Assembly" still have chances of repeating their result from 1995 or perhaps scoring an even better one. This is corroborated by the fact that they have experience with electoral race in with such multitude of participants so that now they only need to apply the knowledge that the SDP-HSLS coalition is lacking. Still, the most important thing is that long and untransparent negotiations between the HDZ and the opposition have taken some of the sting from the opposition and thereby convincing a part of the public that it is afraid of winning a too convincing victory and has, perhaps with the discretion of inter-party diplomacy, made some kind of an agreement on gradual and painless withdrawal of the HDZ from the political scene.

Since the main say in negotiations with the HDZ had the SDP-HSLS coalition, this coalition of four smaller parties of the center have been given a chance to assume the responsibility for the expectations of that part of public and appear as standard-bearers of urgent and radical changes. This opportunity seems more realistic when it is known that the public is relatively well informed about the behind the scenes dealings regarding the election of new members of the Constitutional Court after the expiry of the term of office of eight out of eleven of its members in two months times, including the Court President Jadranko Crnic. In the last few days Crnic gave several interviews in which he reminded that already four months ago he had announced the departure of eight judges and thereby initiated the legal procedure for re-election.

"It is absolutely unacceptable", he said "for everyone to keep silent about this while, at the same time, a story is going around about dozens of candidates from the ruling and other parliamentary parties which gives the impression that a public procedure is being avoided so that the leading parties could push through their candidates while everyone has forgotten about non-party legal experts or, for that matter, judges of the Constitutional Court who could renew their mandates. This warning is important since it is a first tangible indication about some sort of agreed divisions of power between the opposition, which cannot be stopped in its advance, and the ruling party, which although leaving is still capable of dictating the conditions of its retreat into the past.

In other words, the battle for places in the Constitutional Court, where the change will probably occur a month before the one in Parliament, has all characteristics of a dress rehearsal since all the protagonists are already on the stage, from the first fiddles to the small fry. Consequently, even some smaller parties from the coalition "four" have nominated their candidates trying to prove that there is place for everyone in this vanity fair and desired demonstration of power.

MARINKO CULIC