LAST BETS OF ALBANIAN POLITICAL RING

AIM Tirana, 13 October, 1999

The theatre or better the political ring of Albania witnessed dramatic developments last week venturing to push the country towards new political tensions. The staged congresses by the ruling Socialist Party and the opposition Democratic Party nearly at the same time, ended with the victory of radical wings, further polarising the Albanian politics.

The 32-year-old Pandeli Majko Albanian Prime Minister and secretary general of the socialists lost in the race for Socialist Party chairman, in the hands of ex-Premier and former party boss Fatos Nano. With 34 more suffrages, Nano re claimed the post of party chairman, from which he resigned late January this year. Since then the post of the chairman was vacant.

The campaign for the new party chairman was accompanied with harsh charges and anti-charges by both rivals, were incidents were manifested too. Nano, who conducted a more persistent campaign, primarily played anti Berisha card, still strong among the socialist ranks, while Majko organised his campaign more abroad than in Albania attempting to unfold his international support card. For the 46- year-old liberal economists, Nano to return to power he was backed up by the radical side of the party, while Majko, 32, seemed to attract more the sympathy of the moderators.

As never during the Albanian post communist transition, the race- winner among socialists was so difficult to be forecasted until the last minute. This brought about that even the Tirana renown book- makers lay bets in favour or against Majko and Nano candidates, neglecting the soccer match bets between Albania and Georgia, which took place the same time when the voting process for the future socialist chairman was underway. This confirmed the anecdote, which is passing on for some years in the country that "while in America the national sport is baseball, in Albania the national sport is politics."

The return of Nano at the party head launches many question marks related with the political scene as well as the fate of the current governance. The ruling socialist part suffered a deep split and probably an unreparable one. The announcement of Nano' victory was followed by Majko's and his entire cabinet walk out from the meeting hall. The country entered into a power vacuum phase.

In fact if it seen the narrow outcome which separates the two rivals, (the difference is less than two percent) it seems that the victorious Nano hasn't gained everything, and the losers Majko, hasn't lost everything. (As the Bible says: don't be glad, you joyous man, don't sink into despair you despaired man). Now the problem is if the Socialist Party will continue to behave as a party , by achieving any compromise among the groups, or split will reach that point as the current fractions will act as a single party.

The balance in the voting process seem to be the main reason making the new leader Nano restrained in his first statements, when he asked the government to proceed with his work. But this balance seems to be the motive, giving Majko enough courage to declare that his cabinet will fulfil the constitutional duties, meaning that he will not step down immediately. Earlier Nano has declared that if he wins the reshuffling of the governmental cabinet would be inevitable, while Majko had stated if he losses he would resign.

Of course in the coming days, Albania will have a new governmental cabinet. In spite that Majko cabinet doesn't have any constitutional obligations to resign, it can't survive, but it is hard to predict the new cabinet configuration.

Nano who also managed to win the majority for the changes of the socialist statute, according to which the post of Premier is separated from that of party chairman, wouldn't be Prime Minister for the fifth time, but on the other hand wouldn't be easy to set up what can be called "Nano's cabinet without Nano".

If the proportion of the forces noticed at the Congress is also reflected in the gigantic group of 101 members, that the socialists have in Parliament, then for Nano would be impossible to set up a new cabinet, without reaching a compromise with Majko's Group. And if the compromise is lacking, then the new cabinet wouldn't get the vote of confidence and the country would head towards fresh elections.

Also, if the current cabinet would manifest signs of stubbornness and would try to resist, in a regular vote of confidence without the support of Nano's Group it would fall.

It seems that the country can move faster towards new parliamentary elections due to the internal developments of the ruling party, than as a result of opposition pressure, despite that repeats the demand for fresh elections, seem not be prepared for them yet.

Finally the split among the socialists seems to reflect also a crack in the ruling coalition, because it was seen clear during the Congress that the Democratic Alliance is closer to Majko, while the Social Democratic Party is closer to Nano. Both these parties have some ministers in the current cabinet, among them the Social Democrat foreign minister, Paskal Milo.

Not fully confirmed sources have reported that under the pressure of Western diplomats in Tirana is being worked towards a compromise between the sides, thus for a kind of government of inter-socialists coalition. And if this is accomplished, for Majko to hold the Premierós post, the chances are few or none. Probably the pragmatic deputy Prime Minister Ilir Meta or the powerful Public Order Minister, Spartak Poci can be the persons of compromise formula

It was not a secret to any one that Majko's cabinet enjoyed the international support, which originated mainly from the successful management of the Kosovo crisis, during which nearly half a million kosovar refugees entered Albania. On the other side , although Albania remains an unsafe country, the recent moves against crime, initiated by Public Order minister Spartak Poci are regarded with sympathy by the Albanians and foreign Western Chancelleries too.

The return of Nano intricate the cards a little bit. Even if a compromise is achieved for a third socialist cabinet, in their third mandate, this compromise wouldn't be a long-term one. Some names from what can be called Nano's team sound unacceptable to the Albanian public and also to the foreign chancelleries due to the supposed connections with the corruption networks.

While Majko and his cabinet are considered as more acceptable by Berisha and the opposition, Nano's name continuously causes nervousism to them. The relationship between Berisha and Nano remain completely hostile.

Knowing the bitter hostility between Berisha and Nano, exists the danger that a kind of detante noticed in the political life in the last years, can be replaced by a new period of conflicts. Undoubtedly Berisha and Nano are the politicians with the largest number of fanatic supporters, but of course, they also have the biggest number of the fanatic opponents.

The first reactions of Berisha on the return of Nano have been severe. "The third Congress of the socialists voted for the return of gangs to power," said Berisha, who considered the return of Nano as a dramatic development not only for Albania, but also for the region. Berisha called upon for a Government with a broad base.

Meanwhile Nano in an interview after his victory said: "the dialogue with Berisha will be eased to that level, that Berisha will demonstrate respect and responsibility for the state institutions, include here the justice system as well."

Former President Berisha don't possess the Parliamentarian immunity since September last year, when he was accused by the Government of the September 14 violent acts, which followed the assassination of opposition deputy, Azem Hajdari, a murder which is still unclear. Berisha has consistently refused to present in front of the prosecutors.

On the other side, the Democratic Party Congress didn't created any problem to the book-makers. As it was expected, Berisha won again, but his victory was marred by the withdrawal of the moderators group from the party leadership, who critisizwed ex-President for his authoritative style.

The previous deputy chairman of the party, Genc Pollo, who unexpectedly early September had decided to compete with Berisha for the party's chairman post, withdrew from the race a day before the Congress, leaving behind grave charges for his ex-chief. Pollo complained for an unfair race, manipulation of delegates' lists and for his charges towards him as "a man of Greeks".

The Congress dominated by the calls in favour of Berisha and had re confirmed him as the leader of the DP , left Pollo out of the leadership, as well as ex-party chairman, Tritan Shehu, ex-Premier Aleksander Meksi and some other members of the leadership. If Pollo figured out to win in the Congress, that would be a miscalculation, but if he had figured out ot weaken Berisha, he achieved that perfectly. Known for his links with the outside world and considered as the "European face" of the DP, Pollo has a lot of influence in the European right wings circles. Doris Pack, a former ardent supporter of Berisha, though came in Tirana, didn't prefer to go to the Congress hall, in stead she met Pollo and his group in one of Tirana's hotels.

The program presented by Berisha in the Congress has also shifted right-wards. The blue leader has promised the restitution and compensation of all properties to former owners, and further more of concessions to some foreign companies, which have been active in Albania before the Second World War.

Adopting a program of the conservative right wing, Berisha aimed to homogenise the Albanian fragmented right-wing, but the too strong right-wing terms of this program jeopardise to distance him more from the Albanian shaken electorate, which seems to make up the majority..

While he managed to maintain the control over the party, Berisha has to face a serious split in the Parliamentarian group, where is still unclear, where the balance leans. Part of Berisha opponents, while have lost their posts in the party, preserve the deputy mandate. In the strange rebuses of the Albanian politics, this group may influence in the fragile equlibrums, which can be created in the future. None of the side have their hands untied from one another.

Anyway, what should not be forgotten is that a great part of the Albanians, probably half of them, are not presented politically. Moderation seems to come out of fashion in the tiny Balkan country. Meanwhile, after the last matches in the Albanian political ring, losers have not only been Pollo and Majko, but also thier western political sponsors, who have nothing else to do but to see upcoming match. Remzi Lani (AIM)