Montenegrin Public Opinion at a Turning Point

Nobody Believes in the Federation

AIM Podgorica, 24 September, 1999

"The number of those who do not believe in the possibility of any form of community with Serbia is increasing every day in Montenegro. Montenegro, but especially its young generation, is not ready to lose another decade because of wrong policy on the level of the federal state", declared president of Montenegro, Milo Djukanovic, in his speech at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

And while Djukanovic stayed in Strasbourg, Montenegrin public learnt what its president had probably known before his journey. Daily Vijesti and weekly Monitor have got hold of the results of a public opinion poll which was conducted in the beginning of September for the needs of Montenegrin ruling coalition "To Live Better" by the renowned agency Damar from Podgorica. One thousand pollees took part in the poll conducted in eight Montenegrin municipalities: Podgorica, Niksic, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Pljevlja, Kotor, Bar and Cetinje.

The most interesting result of the poll is that at a referendum on the legal status of Montenegro 43.9 per cent of the citizens of this Republic would vote in favour of its full independence! There are 38.9 per cent of those who would be against, while 9 per cent of the pollees still do not have a firm stand, and 8.2 per cent simply would not go to the polls to vote at the referendum.

All things considered, Montenegrins are turning their backs on FRY. An evident increase of the number of supporters of Montenegrin independence in comparison with previous similar polls testifies about it. A little more than six months ago, more precisely, in February, a poll conducted on the same sample and in the same municipalities by the same agency Damar showed that independence of Montenegro at that moment was supported by only 21 per cent of the pollees. At that moment, this datum was evaluated as a considerable increase, especially when it was taken into account that from the beginning of this decade until two years ago, the number of supporters of Montenegrin state independence ranged constantly between 12 and 15 per cent of the electorate.

But, everything FRY has experienced in the past several months - the intensifying political crisis in Serbia and the increasingly strained political and economic relations between Serbia and Montenegro - has doubled the number of supporters of the confederate organisation of the current "modern federation". In February there were 10.5 per cent of supporters of this idea, and in the first days of September, there were 19.6 per cent of them. In the same period, the number of "sympathisers" of FRY was reduced by almost half - from 51.7 to 27.6 per cent.

The increasing Montenegrin discontent with the present FRY is manifested through answers to the currently most topical economic and political questions. That Montenegro should have its own currency (Montenegrin mark, dinar or perper) is believed by 56.2 per cent of the pollees. The proposal that Montenegrin recruits do military service in their own Republic is supported by 58.7 per cent of the pollees, while there is only five per cent less of those who agree with the demand of Montenegrin government that the president of this Republic be the commander of the units of the Army of Yugoslavia deployed on its territory...

Political analysts in Podgorica are studying data Damar has collected with great seriousness, since this agency has proved to be very reliable when estimates of the disposition of Montenegrin public are concerned (in its forecasts of the outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections Damar "missed" by two per cent at the most). They agree that the trend of increase of the number of those who support independent Montenegro is significant. But they also warn that none of the offered solutions of the future organisation of FRY (not even the one on its disappearance) has the support of more than half of Montenegrin voters. That is why the increasingly mentioned referendum could be a double-edged weapon both for peace in Montenegro and for its local ruling establishment.

And technology of remaining in power is very well known ro the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the most powerful member of the ruling coalition. Therefore, one should not be surprised that it persists in its policy of expectation, half-measures and contradictions, which many claim are more the result of tactics than of actual discord among the coalition partners. "Platform on redefining relations between Serbia and Montenegro", the document written and sent to the authorities in Serbia by the government of Filip Vujanovic is a very sound basis for delaying possible "radical" solutions. However, there is less and less possibilities for endless delays.

The information that Serbian prime minister Mirko Marjanovic has just forwarded the Platform to the federal government of Momir Bulatovic, which is treated in Podgorica as "the so-called, illegal and illegitimate", has just broadened the circle of those who believe that the regime in Serbia is not ready even for serious talks, least of all an agreement about a new (con)federal organisation of FRY. And they are raising their voices in demand for an alternative to persistent advocating of survival of the Serb and Montenegrin federation.

Perhaps the smallest reason for concern of the authorities in Podgorica is the fact that popularity of Montenegrin Liberals, the most ardent supporters of independence, has nowadays doubled in comparison with the time of last year's parliamentary elections. It is widely believed that in case of necessity, with an intensive campaign and with the help of state controlled electronic media, the regime could comparatively easily get the Liberal League of Montenegro (LSCG) back into "acceptable limits".

But the real problems for the coalition seem to be coming from within - due to growing discontent of its members and sympathisers. Polls kept in strict confidence showed that only about five per cent of the members of DPS believed in the survival of FRY. This is a fact that forces to action. At the same time it shows that party balance - on the one hand between Djukanovic as the leader of the "pro-Montenegrin" faction and on the other chairman of the parliament and vice president of DPS Svetozat Marovic, the leader of the "pro-Yugoslav" faction - is seriously disturbed. This is a possible threat of something DPS fears the most - a new party split.

Similar is the case with the People's Party (NS). President of this party Novak Kilibada has barely politically survived sharp criticism of his main board. Kilibarda was reproached for lack of "Serbs and Yugoslav feelings" which are believed to be the trademark of this party. Nevertheless, this has not contributed to the improvement of rating of this party which has never been lower since the foundation of NS.

Rakcevic's Social Democrats (SDP) are not threatened by a split or removal of its president. But the latest session of the main board of this party has shown the growing serious misunderstandings between the officials who have taken posts in the state administration and other members of their party. While the former are mostly satisfied with the situation in Montenegro and the work of Republican agencies, their opponents are increasingly discontented in their observations that the authorities still have not been cured of corruption and protectionism, and that the policy of the coalition is not in tune with this party's commitment to independence of Montenegro...

While anti-Yugoslav disposition is growing in Montenegrin public, the regime is still avoiding to explicitly answer the question whether it is in favour of independent Montenegro or of FRY with no alternative (and prospects for the future?). Their irresoluteness is corroborated by threats that should it choose independence, Montenegro will experience the Golgotha of Croatia and B&H. There is also fear that in independent Montenegro certain new political forces might come out on top.

This leads to the conclusion that when Montenegrin statehood is concerned, whatever the Republican regime might choose to do, it will be sorry. But should it fail to do anything, it will also be sorry.

Zoran RADULOVIC

(AIM)