SERBIAN REPRESENTATIVES AS A STAKE IN NEGOTIATIONS

AIM ZAGREB, September 16, 1999

Although at his recent meeting with Milorad Pupovac, President of the Serbian National Council, Franjo Tudjman promised that the authorities would not infringe upon the already secured Serbian rights in the future, the HDZ has prepared another unpleasant surprise for the Croatian Serbs. According to the new draft law on elections which, pending parliamentary debate, the HDZ has presented to the public, instead of three as until now, the Serbs would have just one delegate same as other minorities. This was a step backward in the already limited electoral rights of the Serbian minority.

Immediately after the draft law was published, parliamentary delegates and representatives of the Serbian National Council Milan Djukic and Veselin Pejnovic said that they would call the Serbs to boycott the elections in case the draft is adopted. They called the draft dishonest and below any level of civil and human dignity. Veselin Pejnovic also said that he thought that the Serbs should have four delegates as their number in Croatia has increased since the last elections. Djukic was of a similar opinion.

Milorad Pupovac, the third current Serbian representative and President of the Serbian National Council also expressed his protest against the proposed law. However, he was against the boycott and believed that negotiations with the authorities could ensure the preservation of the present electoral model. However, if it were up to him voters should elect at least six Serbian delegates at the next elections. Namely, Pupovac proposed that the number of Serbian voters in Croatia should be divided by 30 thousand, which was an average number of votes an elected representative of Croatian political parties could get at the last elections. Since, according to his information, there were over 210 thousand voters of the Serbian nationality in Croatia, a separate electoral unit would elect six to seven Serbian delegates.

However, it is hard to expect that the influential authors of the law would accept Pupovac's idea on linking the last elections with the new election model. The fact that six delegates represent about 5 percent of the total number of Serbian voters in relation to the number of voters in Croatia, is in favour of Pupovac's proposal. Naturally, these are only estimates, as there are no official data and the police files are accessible only to the HDZ. Opposition parties do not wish to get involved in these affairs and mostly try to avoid them unless directly asked by journalists. Still, some have understood that exerting pressure in favour of a minority could also help opposition candidates.

Jasna Omejec, a member of the Liberal Party and author of the opposition's draft electoral law, pointed to a provision according to which voters would have to decide whether they want to cast their vote in a special electoral unit or vote as "normal" voters. Omejec proposed the adoption of the "and - and" system so that a minority voter could vote both for the ballot of a party of his political choice (this year elections in Croatia are held according to a proportionate system and only party ballots can be voted for) and once again in a special minority unit according to his ethnic choice. Jasna Omejec expressed her fear that HDZ's "right of option" would deprive them of the minority electors' votes as they think that minority voters would much rather vote for an opposition list than for the HDZ.

If most of the minority members decide to vote on special lists, the opposition would lose these potential votes. Jasna Omejec was in favour of a solution according to which the Serbs would have four seats in Parliament, as already explained by Pejnovic: at the last elections they had three delegates and since then the number so Serbs in Croatia has undoubtedly grown.

The international community will probably not remain indifferent in regard to the final form of the electoral model for minorities. A deadline by which the Croatian Government is obliged to revise the suspended Constitutional Law on Minorities which gave the Serbs the right to be proportionately represented and have local self-government, expires is October. The Government promised to the Council of Europe to put back in force that law or to adopt a completely new text which would meet the international standards. Vladimir Seks, HDZ Vice-President said recently that the new Constitutional law would not include a provision according to which minorities with more than 8 percent of members in relation to the total number of the population can be proportionately represented. Seks said no more, but it is expected that the new law will be changed so as to grant greater rights to minorities. Maybe there is a chance for the provision on the proportionate representation of the Serbs to come into being with the assistance of foreign powers since the Croatian Government has made such a promise to Serbs at the time of the reintegration of Eastern Slavonia into the Croatian legal system.

After the operation "Storm" in 1995, the Serbs have lost the right to have the number of representatives which would be in proportion to their share in the total population. At that time the Parliament summarily suspended the Constitutional Law on Minorities which granted the right to minorities with more than 8 percent of members to be proportionately represented and have local self-government in the areas in which they are the majority. According to 1991 population census the Serbs had 12.7 percent of inhabitants which gave them the right to have 13 delegates out of the total 120 Parliamentary delegates. At the 1992 elections 13 Serbian representatives from various parties were elected (most of them were SDP members). However, at the 1995 elections the Serbs got only three seats in a special electoral unit. The authorities gave no explanation how did they arrive at this number, there was no fuss in the public and the Serbian organisations kept quiet. Simply, the atmosphere after the "Storm" was not adequate for such debates.

Before the elections the number of Serbian electors should be first precisely determined. At the 1995 elections 172 thousand people were registered in a special Serbian electoral unit. Jure Radic, Minister for Reconstruction confirmed that about 60 thousand Serbs have returned from their exile in FR Yugoslavia and B&H (the Republic of Srpska) out of which the majority had the right to vote as these were mostly senior citizens. According to the provisions of the proposed electoral law all Croatian citizens shall have the right to vote irrespective where they are at the time of the elections so that the Serbs will have the possibility of exercising this right in diplomatic and consular offices of Croatia abroad.

It is hard to tell what will the election model of the Croatian Serbs look like. Tudjman's HDZ is following with set teeth the participation of Serbs in public life and were it not for the international observers it would have never let the Serbs into Parliament. Its relation towards minorities is best reflected in the data that the HDZ has come up of a rather humiliating method of representation for the delegates of German, Austrian, Jewish, Ruthenian and Ukrainian minorities which should take turns each nine months and fifteen days at one delegate seat. Even the HDZ has admitted that this was not in accordance with the Constitution after the warning issued by the experts on elections.

But, if it is forced to let the Serbs into Parliament, the HDZ will use them as a stake in its bargaining with the opposition and the international community: the realists expect them to give in during parliamentary debate on the new election law and keep the existing three Serbian delegates. Serbian politicians in Croatia will have to invest great efforts in order to secure this result.

IGOR VUKIC