Ordeals of Prime Minister Dodik

THE END OF GOOD YEARS

Dodik will rule until the elections aware that the Republic of Srpska was never less a state and that there is no reason and possibility for his Government to become something more

Banjaluka, September 2, 1999 (AIM)

After the expiry of the deadline set in the ultimatum which the Bosniac parties gave to Milorad Dodik demanding that he receive them or else they would deny him support, it became evident that the Prime Minister of the Republic of Srpska (RS) had not learned much from the times when the SDS was ousted a year and a half ago. Just like Momcilo Krajisnik, who in January 1998 regretted refusing to strike a deal with the then Prime Minister designate Mladen Ivancic, Dodik will probably regret not reaching an agreement with the SDS last month. The cherry on top of the attack on the Serb Prime Minister was the accusation of Munib Jusufovic, a delegate to the RS Parliament, who compared Dodik to Krajisnik. "I claim with full responsibility that he hinders everything leading to democratisation of and joint life in the Republic of Srpska. There is no difference between him and his predecessors", catogerically said Jusufovic.

WHAT DOES ALIJA HAVE AGAINST DODIK: In this way the Bosniacs have shown that they have no intention of continuing to finance Dodik in their political struggle against the Serbian nationalists, which is their legitimate demand although it would be much more interesting to know the motive why Izetbegovic's delegates turned against someone they thought until recently to be the lesser of two evils on the Serbian side. Although there are comments among the Bosniacs that Dodik did not do much for the return of refugees to the RS, which is also true, it is hard to believe that that is the only motive. Equally unlikely motive could be frequent Dodik's statements by which he wanted to prove that he had no national feelings whatsoever. This is rather a disastrous assessment on the part of the Serb Prime Minister. Namely, after the war between NATO and FRY, same as Milo Djukanovic, Dodik had reasons to feel victorious as he had grown stronger thanks to the pro-Western elements among Serb politicians. Namely, the SDS and the Radicals stopped trying to rally as many as possible anti-Dodik delegates in the Parliament, the dethroned Nikola Poplasen could no longer find it in him to entertain guests in his dissolved presidential cabinet, let alone elect the prime minister designate, and Milosevic, who was after his head, was left etrenched on the right bank of the Drina river.

Dodik had every reason to gloat and he did: when he invited the SDS to join him in the government he explained that now it was his turn to make demands. And then he just discarded them cold-heartedly. As a favourite with the international community he believed that he was allowed to write an impertinent reply to Simon Heislock when the Office of High Representative (OHR) demanded from the Government to change its relations with TV. And when he was caught red-handed in the latest corruption scandal with oil from the Brod Refinery, in which the Party showed great interest, Dodik looked like a man who believed that he was in everybody's good books. But, he was much mistaken.

He simply failed to understand that despite the fact that he was on the side of those forces that have defeated Milosevic, he was nevertheless still a member of the defeated Serbian nation and a representative of the weakened Serb authorities. Since he did not realise that even when the revenge-seeking political Bosniacs ceased to call him "that Social-Democrat Dodik" and started calling him "that Serb Dodik", the Serb Prime Minister could do nothing but take the blows.

A LIST OF DEFEATS AND ENEMIES: The first thing that Dodik had to accept was the arrest of Radoslav Brdanin by SFOR, which showed that his cooperativeness could not defend his men. Minister of Information Rajko Vasic, a note-worthy example that disagreeing with the SDS doesn't mean being a Momcilo Krajisnik's follower, disgraced him before the foreigners so much that it took him a month of apologizing to rectify that. After that came the nightmare with the Bosniacs and the oil scandal which caused his quarrel with his coalition partners Biljana Plavsic and Zivko Radisic. Finally, General Momir Talic, the first RS soldier and one of the most important pillars of the pro-Western stream among the Serbs, was sent to the Hague. How unaware of the goings-on Dodik was is best shown by the reactions of the papers under his control which interpreted the Bosniac ultimatum as an agreement between the SDS and Alija Izetbegovic to topple the RS Government.

Consequently, the Serb Prime Minister did not have much time left to secure a temporary truce, at least in his stand-off with the nationalists. He opened fire from all weapons: Heislock called him an unintelligent politician and his colleagues stated that the positive results of the RS Government could never match the level of their corruption. Plavsic and Radisic were mad at him as they felt cheated by their coalition partner after the oil scandal. The Bosniacs would love to have his head as they believe that in that way they could prove that all Serbs are alike and that there is no difference between Dodik and Krajisnik whatsoever.

Nationalist hard-liners will never forgive him for his participation in the removal of Nikola Poplasen and his humiliation of the Radical leader when Dodik refused to further finance his Presidential Cabinet from the budget. Some nationalists are equally scared of the Hague and the Bosniacs in the Government and do not trust Dodik at all. In brief, wherever he could pick a fight Dodik did just that and precisely at the moment when he managed to remove the greatest threat to him - Slobodan Milosevic. It only remains to be seen whether his talent in making enemies can topple him. The answer is: it cannot. Namely, no matter how dissatisfied with the Serb Prime Minister the international community is, it cannot discard him before the elections since it has no one else to put in his place and since that removal would be admitting to their own failure more than to Dodik's.

The Bosniacs can only grind their teeth as they cannot go against the foreigners and everything they do against Dodik is to Krajisnik's benefit which is the least thing they want to achieve. Dodik's coalition partners, although increasingly eager to make amends with the SDS, are simply doomed to have such a Prime Minister, despite the fact that there are signs that Ostoja Knezevic, the chased-out Dodik's follower, might return and that the nationalists in Biljana Plavsic's camp like to joke with her that Dodik will extradite her to the Hague. Ms. Plavsic can only wish for another anti-corruption campaign and only give support to the Prime Minister who did not give her much choice. Radisic will most probably take advantage of this whole mess with Dodik in the September party elections which is the most he can do against Dodik for the time being.

The only thing left to Dodik is to rule until the next elections. His rule has already lost all its appeal and brought him only problems.

Zeljko Cvijanovic (AIM)