After the First Round of Negotiations Between Serbian and Montenegrin Ruling Parties

AIM Podgorica, 20 July, 1999

After almost two years, interrupted communications and vehement conflicts, representatives of Montenegrin and Serbian ruling parties sat down around the same table again. Negotiations about the new organization of the joint state of Serbia and Montenegro were initiated by Podgorica. From the declarations of its officials it has become clear that Montenegro demands much more independence in the joint state, loose confederate relations with Serbia or maybe even an alliance of sovereign states.

Negotiations of the Serbian and the Montenegrin party started at a dramatic moment - after the war Belgrade had lost in the clash with NATO forces, crimes committed by Serbian forces in Kosovo and now when the only remains of the federal state left in Montenegro is the common currency and the Army of Yugoslavia which may at any moment turn against Montenegrin citizens, civilian institutions and the authorities.

The first meeting of representatives of Montenegrin and Serbian authorities has passed, as witnesses claim, in a tolerant atmosphere. Even Seselj's Radicals talked about mutual understanding and necessary cooperation. Ivica Dacic, spokesman of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), stressed that talks between Belgrade and Podgorica should be continued, because: "SPS has never avoided talks". But he also complained that Montenegrins in Belgrade had not brought a specific platform on changes of the federal state.

Nevertheless, although there was no platform on the table, according to sources close to Montenegrin authorities, SPS immediately presented its offer to former associates and partners from Podgorica. Milosevic is ready to sacrifice his most loyal Montenegrin associate, Momir Bulatovic, prime minister of the federal government, which is not recognised by official Montenegro. Instead of Bulatovic, SPS offered the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) to nominate its representative for the post, and reconstruction of the federal government. Besides, Milosevic is ready to accept the new delegation of Montenegro in the Chamber of the Republics of the federal assembly. Bulatovic's Socialists and Bojovic's Populists still sit in the Chamber of the Republics because official Belgrade refused to accept results of parliamentary elections that took place last year in Montenegro which were won by Djukanovic's coalition.

Representatives of DPS, however, want more: leader of Montenegrin delegation, Zeljko Sturanovic, declared that DPS insists on the change of constitutional organization of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in order to eliminate causes of illegal and illegitimate actions of Belgrade which have shaken the federal state for several years. Montenegrins have also proposed to Milosevic's Socialists and other Serbian parties that the future community be based on three principles: equality of member states, democratic system and openness to the worlld - readiness to join European and Euro-Atlantic associations.

Based on statements given previously by the president of Montenegro, foundations of the platform Podgorica intends to offer Belgrade have already been laid. The future community of Serbia and Montenegro should have just a few common functions - foreign affairs, monetary policy and defence. The agencies which would carry these out on the federal level would be elected by the principle of parity and decisions would be made by consensus. However, in order to offer anything to Belgrade, it is necessary to reach an agreement in Podgorica, and then talks would not be on the level of the ruling parties, but they would be conducted by the government of serbia and Montenegro.

But, the decision of Djukanovic's party to travel to Belgrade caused a turmoil among coalition partners in Montenegrin athorities. The other two members of the Montenegrin coalition government, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People's Party (NS), were sharply against the departure of Montenegrin representatives to Belgrade. The coalition partners reproached Djukanovic for sending his men to Belgrade without having previously reached an agreement with SDP and NS. DPS was also criticised for entering negotiations with a party at the head of which is a man accused of war crimes.

"One just does not go to Belgrade without previous agreement at home. New organization of the community with Serbia is not a matter of political parties but of the state. DPS acts as if it ruled on its own, as if this were 1992 when without asking anybody else SPS and DPS created FRY on their own", says Novak Kilibarda, leader of the Populists. Both parties were so critical that they even threatened to leave the coalition.

What induced the party of Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic to risk peace at home and negotiate with Serbian Socialists who are for two years already trying to overthrow the elected Montenegrin authorities?

It seems that Djukanovic made the decision to go to the talks in Belgrade because of both internal and international circumstances. Since Montenegrin president himself advocated community with Serbia for a long time, he must have indisputable arguments for the Montenegrin voters before scheduling the referendum on independence. If Serbia refused Montenegrin proposal on reorganization of relations in FRY, Montenegro would take its own way, Montenegrin president declared, adding that it was hard to believe in the possibility of an agreement with official Belgrade. On the other hand, he did his best to have the Montenegrin delegation take a proposal unacceptable for Milosevic to the Yugoslav capital.

It is clear that acceptance of Montenegrin principles would mean Milosevic's political death. Slobodan Milosevic cannot be at the head of a democratic country, nor can the community of Montenegro and Serbia be received in European association without extraditing the indicted for war crimes to the Tribunal in the Hague.

On the other hand, before scheduling the referendum, Djukanovic must convince the international comunity that the joint state is impossible. The West for the time being is in favour of territorial integrity of FRY. It is believed that secession of Montenegro from the community with Serbia would further rouse ambitious plans of Kosovo Albanians for independence. That is why it insists on unchanged borders. Djukanovic, therefire, has a difficult task to explain to Western leaders that he does not demand to change borders, but just international recognition of the last unrecognised internal border between republics of former Yugoslavia, the one between Serbia and Montenegro. It is clear to Montenegrin president that he must not lose the support of the West. And he is supported over there by many because they believe in the illusion that he could help democratise Serbia. Therefore, the trip of the Montenegrin delegation to Belgrade is also a tactical move for the West.

If Milosevic turns down Montenegrin conditions, Djukanovic will have one important trump card in his hands with which he might induce the West to support the referendum on independence.

After the initial contacts between official Belgrade and Podgorica, perhaps one could conclude that Milosevic saw through and accepted Djukanovic's game. Yugoslav president might enter into negotiations with Montenegro in order to buy some time. He could divert the attention of rebelling Serbia for a moment from internal problems to the question of reorganisation of Yugoslav federation and relations between Serbia and Montenegro. Milosevic is very skilful in surmounting internal difficulties in this way and Montenegro may come in handy for that purpose.

"Djukanovic is risking to enter the labyrinth of long negotiations with Serbia", says Zarko Rakcevic, leader of SDP. In these negotiations Mointenegro could lose precious time. Unrecognised by the world in Milosevic's state, it could continue to live miserably for a long time between war and peace as it has spent these past two years since it split with Serbia.

Milka Tadic

(AIM)