OPPOSITION'S FEAR OF ELECTORAL VICTORY

AIM ZAGREB, July 15, 1999

Negotiations between the ruling HDZ and six largest opposition parties regarding the new election law have been going on for over four months now. Although an agreement on its main features has been reached in principle on May 25, i.e. over a month and a half ago, negotiations have been characterised by constant frictions and no end is in sight. It was agreed in May to organise the elections according to the proportionate system, whereby the HDZ has implicitly acknowledged that it is, to say the least, stagnating, if not rapidly going downhill.

Namely, it is well known that the proportionate system suits parties which can count on relative majority, at best, while parties which can win a majority or slightly more prefer the plurality electoral system. Despite the fact that it originally demanded a combined system which brought it a victory at numerous repeated regional and local elections in the past, the opposition agreed to the proportionate system because its leaders self-confidently claim that they will win parliamentary elections at the end of the year no matter what kind of electoral law is adopted. Probably with the intention of demonstrating that superiority it agreed for the diaspora to take part in the elections despite the fact that it is close to the HDZ and manipulations with the Croats from B&H who were in the past also counted as diaspora. The only reservation was that members of the diaspora would no longer be guaranteed seats in Parliament, but that that deputies would have to reach a specified quota of votes at the elections in order to win a seat in Parliament.

It now only remains to be decided whether that quota will be linked to the average number of votes won by other deputies, in line with the opposition's suggestion, or to the lowest number of votes, according to the HDZ wishes. But, although this issue will be most probably resolved, negotiations are marking time and in all likelihood will not be over before autumn, especially as the Parliament is having a summer recess and an extraordinary session would have to be called in order for the law to enter the procedure. Equally large or even larger problem lies in the fact that the May agreement envisages the simultaneous enactment of the new election law, law on election units and, most importantly, the new law on Croatian Television. And regarding this law the HDZ is a much tougher nut as it has rightfully concluded that its monopoly on TV is, perhaps, its last electoral trump card.

The opposition demands the reduction of delegates in the HRT Chamber in order to avoid the blocking majority which is in the HDZ's hands in that Chamber. But, that is an exercise in futility. Even if it did so, the HDZ would most probably instantly halve the competences of that Chamber or in some other way annul the consequences of that decision. It would get around a new law on TV in the same way if it were adopted in accordance to the opposition's demands on the transformation of television into a public institution, by simply refusing to implement it in practice. That is why negotiations on the transformation of HRT are pointless, as negotiations with the HDZ generally are, including those on the election law.

If the opposition is so self-confident to think any election law suitable, it would be more logical for it to allow the HDZ to adopt one on its own, instead of pursuing long and fruitless bargaining about something that voters are basically more irritated by that interested in. Namely, ever since it started concentrating on negotiations with the ruling party, the opposition has practically stopped all other activities which, naturally, quite suits the HDZ so that it would not be strange if it turned out later on that it was provoking disagreement and thus procrastinating the negotiations on purpose. Admittedly, the international community is also closely following these negotiations as it has made the continuation of negotiation with Croatia on its reintegration into major international groups and financial programmes conditional on the successful conclusion of negotiations with the opposition.

However, the HDZ has already missed so many boats in its relations with the international community that none seems important any longer. It is probably reckoned that, for the time being, the most important thing is to win the elections or at least not to lose them and then seek salvation in post-electoral coalitions while the patching up of relations with the world will come only after that. Besides, the May agreement specifies that the parliamentary elections have to be held four months after the adoption of the new election law at the latest, i.e. the procrastination of the legislative procedure only means the postponement of the elections. True, it is a matter of one to two months at the most, as the electoral schedule is specified by the Constitution and not even HDZ can allow itself to openly disregard it in such an important matter.

In addition, it is questionable what would be the benefit of postponing the elections as conditions in the country won't certainly change so drastically in such a short time so as to make any difference for the HDZ. Moreover, it seems that the unfavourable social situation will deteriorate further and that Tudjman's party has no major military operation at its disposal that would help it sweep it under the carpet or at least push it to the background. The only rational reason for postponing the elections which the HDZ has most probably come up with, is to leave as much time as possible for the definite disintegration of the opposition six which has been sorely tried in the last few months. Such calculations are not ungrounded since the six-man team has faced the most serious test recently when the Racan's Social-Democrats and Budisa's Liberals announced their intention to form a new coalition.

This practically marked the end of the six-man team, except as a symbolic framework of two related, but essentially competitive party groups. Admittedly, already last summer in Split the SDP and HSLS have concluded a general agreement on pre-election cooperation and thus separated themselves as an island from the group of six to which other parties were denied access or were uninvited, to say the least. But, the Rubicon has been crossed now and open separation has started which is best shown by the electoral cooperation these two parties have announced in Rijeka. Opposition is already in power there, but in a rather different form from the one that is being announced now.

The coalition "Family" which is ruling in Rijeka is composed of the SDP, Gotovac's LS, Jakovcic's IDS, Cacic's HNS and a small regional Coastal-Kotar Party. Now, as the largest party within the "Family", the SDP will thank all of them, except PGS, for cooperation and enter a coalition engagement with the HSLS, which has been involved in many scandals here when some of its prominent members went over to the HDZ. The dissolution of the "Family", hitherto undoubtedly the most successful opposition local coalition, sounds at the very least, amateurish. It would certainly be better if the cooperation had been established somewhere else, say in the Osijek region, which has also been announced.

But the SDP obviously wanted to make it known that it held its coalition with the HSLS in such high regard that it was prepared to make certain sacrifices for it. Budisa, on the other hand, announced the dissolution of a number of local coalitions between the HSLS and the HDZ so that there is an impression that these are agreed steps by which the new, two-party coalition wants to demonstrate the efficiency of joint action. The other members of the six-party group quickly reacted to the SDP-HSLS agreement and announced closer mutual cooperation. The HSS, LS, IDS and HNS demonstrated their gift for pointed moves by organising the meeting of their leaders in Rijeka. Thus this town became a symbol of the total unpredictability of the Croatian opposition which goes so far that on the eve of the most probable ever electoral defeat of the HDZ the opposition's behaviour makes us doubt whether it really wants that defeat.

MARINKO CULIC