DPS between Montenegro and the Federal Government

Heart Cracked in Two

Montenegrin regime has made a serious effort to create an impression that it is the only one that can achieve a new state status for Montenegro; so if there will be no sovereign Montenegro it only means that it had not been possible in the first place. That is why Montenegro is still suitable for making various bargaining arrangements which can easily be presented as the will of the people.

AIM Podgorica, 9 July, 1999

The statement of prime minister Filip Vujanovic that Montenegrin leadership was ready to participate in reconstruction of the federal government if the ruling Montenegrin coalition was given the post of the prime minister, echoed in Montenegro like a middle-sized missile. Leader of the Social Democratic Party, Zarko Rakcevic, threatened that in that case his party would without lingering step out of the government. "Every continuation of the illusion called the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is unacceptable for SDP. That would be yet another deception of the citizens and we shall not take part in it. In that case there will be no coalition", Rakcevic was firm. President of the Liberal League Miroslav Vickovic stated that the Liberals had not been caught unprepared by such a stand of Montenegrin prime minister. "DPS is", the Liberals believe, "primarily interested in power, regardless of whether it is in a federation, a confederation or sovereign Montenegro". In Socialist National Party they revealed that the prime minister's announcement of the struggle for the federal throne was - an ultimatum. And being verified patriots, the National Socialists do not care for ultimatums.

In fact there was no reason for concern. If observed in the whole "context", Vujanovic has not said anything new. He just changed the usual conditional approach to state issues successfully applied by montenegrin leadership ever since it introduced reformists. "If Milosevic remains at the head of FRY its prospects for the future are dismal"... "If reformist ideas of Montenegro are not accepted in Serbia, Montenegro will choose the alternative road"...

This time it seemed quite normal for Vujanovic to note that the federal government can acquire a new sense if a representative of the right orientation came to its head. When the first tumultous reactions quieted down, Montenegrin prime minister made an effort to clarify what he had meant. "My statement aroused comments which are at this moment unnecessary because they may cause damaging agitation. For as long as we do not know what will happen to the offered platform, we must struggle to make the federal administration operate pursuant the constitution, as well as the legislature and the executive power and the judiciary", Vujanovic interpreted. The problem is not in a single statement. The essence is in the fact that it reflects the mental state of the ruling team of Montenegro. Vujanovic's readiness to bargain is just an illustration how the concept of Montenegrin state sovereignty in their interpretation is not an experienced idea but primarily a defensive reflex. This can determine the destiny of Montenegro.

It is nowadays impossible to predict how the announced negotiations between Montenegrin and Serbian political leaders on reorganization of FRY will proceed. It is impossible to estimate what is the "minimum below which we will not go" in the considerably mystical Montenegrin platform, and what is subject to bargaining. It is impossible to estimate how political disturbances in Serbia will end. It is only possible to conclude the folowing: Montenegrin authorities may seek a way out in sovereign Montenegro, but in their system of values, the ideal of FRY is at least equally valid. Therefore nobody should be surprised if in case of a more flexible approach of Belgrade, Montenegrin official negotiators express the same cooperativeness when preservation of FRY is concerned, despite all their previous experience.

This "heart cracked in two" is not typical only of Montenegrin political elite; it expresses confusion of majority of Montenegrin citizens. Montenegrin officials have for some time referred to public opinion polls which indicate that majority of citizens of Montenegro are in favour of full Montenegrin state independence or transformation of FRY into a confederation. There are no serious reasons to doubt truthfulness of these data. It is very obvious that the craving for modern federalism formulated in Zabljak is melting away from Montenegro every day. However, this is not the whole truth about the attitude of Montenegrin citizens towards the destiny of their state.

The authorities have made a serious effort to create the impression that only they can achieve the new state status for Montenegro; so if there is not going to be sovereign Montenegro, it means that it had not been possible at all. The social ambience in which the regime donates everything - from canned meat to the state - is the most convenient for creation of impenetrable circles of non-freedom. Regardless of the patriotic thundering that is echoing all over the place, there is little evidence that Montenegrin society is nowadays less dependent on state and parastate centres of power than in the beginning of the conflict in the leadership of the Democratic Party of Socialists. Simply, if the leadership of the DPS, assisted by an abundance of instruments for enforcement of awareness of the citizens, comes to the conclusion that adjusted FRY is the best choice for Montenegro, it will have full support of their electorate. If it decides otherwise - that is how it will be. That is why future of Montenegro is still uncertain; that is why Montenegro is still suitable for various bargaining arrangements which can later easily be presented as the will of the people.

It is interesting to listen to the leading people from DPS vowing that never again will Montenegro have its destiny determined by federal services it has absolutely no influence on. Never has any of the creators of "absolutely equality" of Montenegro formulated in Zabljak evoked memories about it and publicly admitted whose work the existing Montenegrin state situation is the result of. This vow of silence expresses the deep, silent internal consensus of Montenegrin leadership and the "people" not to raise any of the painful issues of common illusions and falls.

This does not refer only to the past. In the eruption of mixed hopes and illusions, obvious untruth is still easily swallowed by the Montenegrin public; it penetrated so deeply into the lives of people as unquestionable habit. One should only carefully listen to the regularly repeated message of Montenegrin authorities: "If democratic and reformist forces do not preval in Serbia, FRY will spontaneously crumble down". This stand seems so logical that one feels sorry to doubt it. But, could not just the opposite happen?

If one day democratic forces really prevail in Serbia, free of aspirations towards the smaller republic - why would such Serbia be in favour of survival of a state such as FRY based on Zabljak and similar foundations? Only such imaginary democratic Serbia could understand that FRY is a dead concept, an extinguished idea, chains around it and Montenegro.

A part of the same story is the current debate in the Montenegrin political and intellectual public about confederation or independent Montenegro. From without it looks like unfathomable wisdom - from within it is shallow. Will Montenegro choose to be an independent state - it should depend solely on the will of its citizens - everything else is violence. Will it like an independent state join associations with anyone, maybe even Serbia, this depends on mutual interests. To offer a confederation in advance as a joint model is essentially the same as falling of Milosevic's federal assembly into the arms of the union of Russia and Belorussia. It is not an answer but - a getaway.

Esad KOCAN

(AIM)