Are there any chances for the SDS

REFORMISTS AGAINST DINOSAURS

The question of SDS's future is linked with the development of its relations with the international community. And whenever Kalinic tries to persuade them that the SDS has reformed, the foreigners exclaim: "And what about Krajisnik?"

AIM Banja Luka, July 2, 1999

When on Tuesday the SDS demanded the "self-dissolution of the People's Assembly of the Republic of Srpska and holding of extraordinary parliamentary elections" it was a sign that the news about the end of war in Yugoslavia has reached the RS and that the political life should be resumed. It's no wonder that the SDS was the first to realise that something had to be done since the very outcome of the war in FRY simply made it imperative for SDS to act. Namely, while Dodik benefited from Milosevic's defeat in a duel with the rest of the world and whose removal even Duke Mirko Blagojevic no longer demands, all that time the Socialists were simply losing ground. Their greatest ambition at this moment is to keep the party together, while the Radicals can only feebly pray for the devil not to take them together with their Duke Voja Seselj.

"COLLATERAL" KRAJISNIK: However, there are both losers and winners in the SDS ranks. Namely, Momcilo Krajisnik with his life-long SDS pedigree, had fours things: skill, money, personal infrastructure and Slobodan Milosevic. In one year Dodik managed to cut most of Krajisnik's money-supplying channels within the Republic of Srpska itself and thus forced him to turn to the Yugoslav market from which Dodik has been retreating for months. Since at this moment Yugoslavia is a market only for humanitarian organisations which Krajisnik surely doesn't represent, that means that his profit stands good chances of becoming yet another NATO's collateral damage.

He lost Slobodan Milosevic once more, this time probably for good. The political front of the Yugoslav President is no longer either in B&H or Kosovo and Montenegro. This front is now along the Nis-Cacak-Kragujevac line where the opposition, aided by the international community, is closing its ranks. This shows that the Republic of Srpska is now in the rear of the "enemy territory" and that Krajisnik will lose yet another source of income as well as Slobodan Milosevic, which means that further dropping out of his apparatus should be expected. In the end he will be left with only his skill which should not be underestimated but, alas, the good old times will never return.

BUHA AND THE LIBERALS: Opposite to Krajisnik, who by the very nature of his influence remained hopelessly tied to Milosevic, is the so called liberal wing of the SDS led by Dragan Kalinic and Dragan Cavic who have not had their final say. In contrast to, eg. Zivko Radisic, who behaved as a flight controller during the war checking whether NATO aircraft were flying over the RS, familiar with the ways all Milosevic's wars end, Kalinic and Cavic refused to become to deeply involved in that story. They kept silent and waited for the end so that it is only a matter of days when one of them will mention "the dangerous national policy of Slobodan Milosevic".

The third stream within the SDS is led by the former leader of that party Aleksa Buha. Since this is a group which has been defeated in a duel with Krajisnik and does not have sufficient measure of political pragmatism to force itself as a competitor against skillful Kalinic, Buha can realise his interests only outside the SDS.

Firstly, it will probably be yet another party like Biljana Plavsic's SNS whose maximum achievement regarding programme orientation is to note that the SDS's programme is good, but that the problem lies in its non-implementation. Secondly, during the SDS's rigid and ruling stage Buha was considered to be a "SDS member with a heart" and as such missed his last chance to reform both himself and the party. He failed and it is hardly likely that he will get another chance. The third Buha's problem is that there will probably be no more new parties in the RS, that in the post-Milosevic Serbia as well as in the RS an agglomeration of the political scene will ensue and that even in Parliament on the left bank of the Drina river there are quite a lot of parties which are not certain of their survival.

WHO WILL SURVIVE: Developments on the political scene in the Republic of Srpska show that it will soon be reduced to two basic political groups. One - led by Milorad Dodik and the other which will rally around the SDS. It will soon be clear who has the main say in Sloga: it is quite possible for Biljana Plavsic to link the fate of her anaemic party to Dodik's ship and serve as the right wing of Independent Social-Democrats.

The Socialists who have practically let their chances slip, will have to fight for their future but, even if they succeed, will never again have the standing which they have enjoyed in the last two years. They will only be a part of Dodik's infrastructure or SDS's left wing depending on who will be the winner: Ilic's nationalists, Radisic's play-safe types or Radmanovic's businessmen. The latter stand the best chance of winning. And finally there are Radicals who, as it seems, truly believed (or had to believe) that it was Serbia's destiny to break up both NATO and the new world order. Their destiny lies in the hands of Robert Barry and Westendorp's successor Wolfgang Petrich, which is for Poplasen slightly better than to depend on Milorad Dodik. The SDS is carefully measuring the situation in which stubborn Poplasen is losing his importance and radical voters are gaining it as they have nowhere else to go but to join Kalinic and Cavic.

In order to master the right wing of the Serbian electorate, the SDS will have to do several things. Firstly, it will have to stop behaving as the office of a dethroned president and transform into a true parliamentary opposition. Apart from that it will have to make another step forward vis-a-vis the international community. In other words, it will have to understand that it has to be more present in Sarajevo and less in Belgrade. Thirdly, it will have to get out from under Milosevic's coat and support the opposition in Serbia. It might not be so hard for the SDS to do: the request for extraordinary elections is proof in itself that the SDS is ready to work as the opposition. It will also get rid of Milosevic. But, its future also depends on another specific thing.

Namely, although Kalinic broke his neck to prove to Berry and Westendorp that SDS is a reformed party, these two always return to a specific question: have you broken up with Mr.Krajisnik? This showdown - which, come what may, will have to occur by the time of local elections at the latest - will show whether the reformists or the dinosaurs will win the upper hand within the SDS? The victory of the former would stabilize the entire political scene, all the more as the SDS could sell the international community a story about wanting the same things as Dodik but Dodik being unable to do what the SDS can. If Krajisnik's dinosaurs win that would mean a continuation of the agony and further slowing down of the RS political development from pre-political into a truly pluralistic society. It is up to them.

Zeljko Cvijanovic

(AIM)