What Has Yugoslavia Agreed to

High Price of Peace

There will be 50 thousand instead of the initially planned 28 thousand foreign soldiers deployed in Kosovo; all Serbian and Yugoslav security forces must withdraw from the Province, and nobody is mentioning when the demolished country might be reconstructed

AIM Podgorica, 4 June, 1999

(By AIM correspondent from Belgrade)

A collective sigh of relief spread over Belgrade on Thursday, 3 June: peace seems to be at hand. Whole day Wednesday, 2 June, the night between Wednesday and Thursday and Thursday morning were full of suspense. Joint visit of the European and the Russian envoy for the Balkans, Marti Ahtisaari and Victor Chernomyrdin, which was supposed to mark the first true chance for peace, was at first announced, then postponed, then announced again - and finally the two envoys arrived in Belgrade on Wednesday afternoon. It was known that they were bringing Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic a draft peace plan elaborated by the Americans, the Russians and the Europeans.

It was also known that tomahawks and bombs would probably soon stop falling in the foreseeable future if Milosevic adopted the plan, and that NATO ground invasion would become quite probable if he refused.

UNCERTAINTY

After a two-hour meeting of international envoys with the president of Yugoslavia and his associates on Wednesday evening no statement was issued. There was only the session of the Assembly of Serbia scheduled for Thursday morning. The Assembly session implied that a significant decision was emerging - but it could also very well mean that the plan would be rejected just as it could mean that it would be accepted. Only well after midnight telephones of observers and analysts started ringing around the city - it was unofficially heard that all the deputy groups in the Assembly of Serbia at meetings late in the evening had decided to accept the peace plan; the only thing left to do was to convince the Radicals of Vojislav Seselj. This, however, is not extremely important

• assembly majority for acceptance of the paln had been ensured even without them. This was confirmed on Thursday. Behind closed doors, while air-raid alert was on, sessions of the Republican Assembly and of the federal government were held. Slobodan Milosevic himself did not want to accept anything: only after it had been stated that the Assembly of serbia had supported the plan with 136 votes in favour and 74 against, it was made public that it was also accepted by the president of FRY. This was followed by statements of the government of FRY, the Socialist Party of Serbia, the Serb Revival Movement and the Yugoslav Left.

CAUTION

When during the day, the text of the peace plan was made public, it was clear why there was good reason for Milosevic's caution: in some of its parts the plan is even less favourable for Yugoslavia than the five main conditions of NATO for interruption of the war and than by Yugoslavia previously accepted principles of the Group 8 countries (USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, Russia). In the mentioned two sets of demands, as well as in the peace plan brought by Finnish president Ahtisaari and former Russian prime minister Chernomyrdin it is written that there must be momentary and verifiable cesession of violence and repression in Kosovo, safe and free return of refugees and displaced persons and a political solution based on the Rambouillet agreement. There is also the demand for withdrawal of Yugoslav, that is Serbian security forces from Kosovo, but neither the NATO nor the G-8 plan said that departure of all forces was required; the plan adopted by Milosevic, the Republican Assembly and the federal government that is exactly what is required. The only concession, if it can be called that, is that after withdrawal an agreed number of Serb forces would be enabled to return to Kosovo - but they will carry out the following precisely determined tasks: to maintain links with the international civilian and security mission, mark the mine fields, be present at the sites of Serb heritage in Kosovo, as well as on key border crossings. In a footnote of the accepted document it is stated that this return would take place under supervision of international security forces, and that they will not be counted in thousands of persons, but hundreds.

TROOPS

Besides, the NATO plan demands international military presence in Kosovo, and G-8 just international civilian and security presence. Neither one nor the other explicitly says that NATO troops must come to the southern Serbian province (although the whole of the West in fact insisted on this), and the plan adopted by Yugoslav authorities requires international security presence with with the central role in it played by NATO. There will not even be cessation of bombing of the citizens of Yugoslavia - suspension of air strikes is planned only when withdrawal of the forces from Kosovo becomes "verifiable". Since the deadline for withdrawal is seven days, NATO still has plenty of time to destroy whatever it pleases and kill as many and whoever it wishes. When everything is taken into account - and if nobody in the meantime concludes that war was better after all - about 50 thousand foreign soldiers, instead of the 28 thousand initially planned in Rambouillet will very soon come to Kosovo - but the troops will not be from NATO coiuntries only (as demanded at Rambouillet), but there will also be Russians, Ukranians and others - from the total of 30 countries which have offered their forces for keeping peace in Kosovo. Territorial integrity of Serbia and Yugoslavia will not be threatened - borders remain the same - but the power of domestic authorities in Kosovo will be minimum. When the announced United Nations Security Council resolution is adopted the whole operation will finally have an international legal foundation. In the meantime, nobody is offering an answer to the question when the demolished country could be reconstructed (after just one month of bombing the damage was estimated at 100 billion dollars) nor when life could finally become at least partly normal.

Spomenka Lazic

(AIM)