NEW RAPPROCHEMENT IN THE TRIANGLE ALBANIA -MACEDONIA-MONTENEGRO

Tirana Jun 8, 1999

AIM Tirana, June 7,1999

One of the more surprising effects that run counter to Slobodan Milosevic's intentions when he launched the human bomb of the refugees in the direction of Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro is the movement towards a new rapprochement between the capitals of the three countries. Milosevic had reckoned that the powerful wave of the refugees, which would be as high as 15-20 percent of the population of the three countries, would not only shake their internal structures but also strain their inter-state relations to the point of a major destabilization in the region.

Likewise, contrary to what would have been expected, the state, which according to Belgradeôs calculations would have been the epicenter of the shock waves in the relations among the three states, Albania in this case, took the lead in an effort to bring about a new rapprochement in the relations among these three states. Albanian Premier Majko, assessing the situation created by the war in Kosova and the refugee crisis, expressed his readiness for building a new type of trilateral relations. Of course, there is also a catalyzing element such as the concern of the West to neutralize the collateral political and geopolitical consequences of Milosevicôs strategy for the extension of the conflict.

The West and especially the United States have encouraged Majko's policy for Albania's special relationship with Macedonia and Montenegro. In a letter addressed to Majko on May 22, the U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright praises the meeting of the Albanian premier with his Macedonian counterpart and encourages Albania to expand its cooperation and contacts with its neighbors against their common northern enemy.

At a meeting the Albanian premier had with the president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE, Helle Dege, in Tirana on June 3, he spoke at length about the importance Albania attaches to, and the activity it is carrying out for, the strengthening of relations and rapprochement in the Albania-Macedonia-Montenegro triangle. Majko deemed it important to expound his concept of interconnected security in the region also to the UN General Secretary Kofi Annan in the course of a visit the latter paid to Tirana on May 20, stressing that the destabilization of Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro would be the last thing the Albanian Government would wish for. This was the main theme in the assessment of the political situation of the region at all the important meetings the Albanian premier had in the last two months. The present Tirana Government is insisting on the creation of a new special relationship with Macedonia and Montenegro.

This represents a change of orientation as compared with the policy of the former Premier of Albania, Fatos Nano (July 1997 - September 1998), albeit he belonged to the same Socialist Party. Nano was involved in the creation of another triangle: among Albania, Greece and Macedonia. The war in Kosova, however, and the refugee crisis proved the inconsistency of his course. The situation created in the region brought about a new involvement of the West and NATO, and Majko saw that the present circumstances and the future developments made the triangle Albania-Macedonia-Montenegro more plausible. The fact that Albania has become the promoter of the rapprochement among these three states is an important positive development if we consider, moreover, its significant role in ensuring the stability of the two neighboring states, in which, as is known, there is a large Albanian population. This may seem of little consequence, but it is extremely significative for the Balkans living in a climate of permanent suspicion, so much so that on May 30 ten Montenegrin families came over to Albania to flee the Serb Army that had called up their boys for the war in Kosova.

About a million Kosovars flooding the three states gave a fresh meaning to the new relations of rapprochement and mutual trust. Albania, with its ethnic ties with the refugees, made the first gesture, expressing its readiness to receive all the refugees that had taken refuge in Macedonia and Montenegro. Also, it kept a cool head when confronted with the hardships of the refugees in Macedonia and Montenegro. The three states are interested in working jointly to cope with the common refugee crisis with the least possible consequences and suffering on their part. Their cooperation is also important as the refugees that have taken refuge on their territories are ethnically related to part of their population and, in many a case, have family connections across the border.

Tirana, Skopje and Podgorica keep close contacts with NATO and the European Union. Although Montenegro, unlike Albania and Macedonia, is not a member of the Partnership for Peace, it is more and more with each passing day seeing its future outside Serbia, holding that it can go more rapidly to Brussels through Albania and Macedonia than through Serbia. As the Montenegrin president Djukanovic put it during his visit to Skopje on June 1st, Montenegro has no more time to lose in its efforts to integrate itself into the West.

It was not easy for the Albanian Government to pursue a policy of special relationship and rapprochement with its two neighbors in the present situation, for it had to maintain a delicate balance between the protection of the Kosovar refugees and the preservation of stability in its relations with Macedonia and Montenegro. The case of Blace, when the first wave of Kosovar refugees came to Macedonia and the Macedonian Government closed the border and caused them to live several days of horror, created the impression that Milosevic's bomb was achieving its aim of destabilizing relations between the two states. The unplanned visit of Macedoniaôs foreign minister Dimitrov to Tirana and his pleading for forgiveness for the harsh treatment of the Albanian refugees during his talks with Majko dispelled the heavy clouds cast over the relations between the two states.

The Albanian premier met and had talks with the Macedonian premier Lupco Georgievski in Thessalonica on May 11, while only six days before Majko had invited President Milo Djukanovic to visit Albania, ówhere all doors would be open to him.

The policy of the Albanian Government for new relations and rapprochement among the three states has met with a positive response in Macedonia and Montenegro. This was the main topic of the Majko ã Georgievski talks which resulted in a joint statement expressing their support for the course of the Montenegrin president.

Majkoôs efforts in pursuing a differentiated policy with Montenegro have been also encouraged by the pro-Western and anti- Milosevic course of the present Montenegrin leadership. On June 4, the Albanian premier read a declaration in which he re-emphasised his solidarity with the reform-minded president of Montenegro. It must be said that the road in this direction was already paved by former president Berisha who right from the beginning had tried to differentiate between Montenegro and Serbia, and even had received the then president of Montenegro Bulatovic in Tirana in 1993.

The special relationship among Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro encourage the creation of a climate of stability in the region. Now that the region is entering the post-war period and there is talk about a Marshall Plan of some sort, this course broadens the base and adds to the positive elements for the Euro-Atlantic integration of the three states.

On the strategic and geopolitical plane, the three smaller and weaker states of the region now find themselves in a very favourable position to profit from the new developments and orientations mapped out for the South-eastern Europe. This rapprochement is given additional weight also through the signing of the Pact of Stability among the countries of South-eastern Europe, which envisages a differentiated stand toward Montenegro. In the framework of this Pact and future integration, the special relationship among the three states constitutes an important development, in which there are no losers, only winners.

SHABAN MURATI (AIM)