The Strange Man from Pantovcak

AIM Zagreb, 25 May, 1999

"There is one strange man, his name is Franjo Tudjman." This is a nursery rhyme - a lampoon sung at stadiums to the rhythm of a march of the Croatian army by football fans who do not agree with the change of the name of Dinamo football team into Croatia. But, the frequency of their singing and reactions of the special police forces, especially in Zagreb, like many other shouts such as "Tudjman, thief" or "Canjuga, you fag", are a sign of the extent of erosion of the power and charisma of Croatian president.

Tudjman, however, does not amaze only football fans and Croatian citizens, but on Friday he managed to surprise and appall the ambassadors of Group 8, of the European Three, the People's Republic of China and the Vatican. Tudjman invited them to his presidential palace and presented his plan for resolving the crisis of Kosovo. As befits a historian who has not completed secondary school, but has a dubious doctorate, he first made the following analysis: "In the most widespread notions of the Serb people Kosovo is the cradle of Serb statehood and nation, where historical monuments and monasteries are, and because of the historical battle of Kosovo an irrational emotion has been developed as Serb officials often indicated during talks in Geneva during the International Conference on Former Yugoslavia. This emotion was intensified by Serb aggression on Bosnia & Herzegovina, as well as the estimate that the Serbs are demographically threatened by Kosovo Albanians".

If one had not known who uttered these words, one would have certainly thought they were Cosic's, Milosevic's or of some other strategist of Greater Serbia or at least "little big Serbia", as former head of the president's office, Hrvoje Sarinic, once called it. This foolish day-dreaming about historical rights, although irrational, is especially shaky when Tudjman says that the Serb aggression against Bosnia & Herzegovina intensified these emotions. Indeed, the man is strange and how can aggression intensify an emotion, although imaginary, about being threatened and where is that part of rhetoric on Serb imperialism and what has happened with aggression against Croatia?

After this pro-Serb introduction which made it vague whether Dedinje has moved to Pantovcak, Tudjman says that "these elements should be kept in mind although they do not in any way justify the politics and the crimes Milosevic's regime committed in Kosovo which deserve the severest international condemnation". And then comes the climax. The political dwarf who wants to force his way into history, passes onto something concrete: "Regardless of whether after resolution of the crisis of Kosovo Milosevic will stay at the head of Serbia or not, the international community should persist in seeking an acceptable solution which would enable meeting conditions stipulated by NATO and G-8, and Croatia supports efforts of international envoys. Based on the available information, the possible solution of the crisis in Kosovo could prescribe complete withdrawal of all Serb forces and the Army of Yugoslavia to the northern part of Kosovo where peace would be kept by UN forces consisting of international army units, probably of the acceptable Russian Federation. In the rest of Kosovo, international military forces would be deployed which would enable return of refugees. This model would create preconditions for interruption of the current crisis, but it would also prevent breaking out of new tensions and conflicts in the future".

And that is that. Tudjman neither more nor less proposes division of Kosovo, offers amnesty to Milosevic for all the crimes, and introduces Russia in grand style, in fact opposing the dominating faction inside NATO and his allies - the Americans. One could at great length analyse that Tudjman was in fact trying to save his Eastern twin, that he is not at all interested what the future of Yugoslavia will be, because it is possible to talk and negotiate with Milosevic. This specific Yalta on Kosovo could be explained by for him the still unforgettable division of Bosnia and the attempt to establish historical peace or a compromise between the Serbs and the Croats. Croatian analysts state other theses as well. Apart from the mentioned public proposal in his own name and his view of himself as the Messiah or God's envoy, Tudjman is also in a way trying to act Tito. All political parties condemned this Tudjman's proposal, not wishing any dialogue with the current Serbian regime, and especially not with Milosevic who, they say, must be defeated, claiming that results of ethnic cleansing must not be recognised. In what way is Tudjman trying to imitate Tito? Six months ago, while lexturing at the War School, to general surprise, Tudjman announced that if it did not meet with sufficient understanding of the West, Croatia would turn to Russia.

This initiative, except for the Croatian public, bewildered a large part of the world. The impression remains that because of the wrong estimate of his own importance and obsession with the idea about making Croatia a regional power, Tudjman sees the future of Croatia in steering a middle course between the East and the West, trying in this way to blackmail Washington. After all, reactions to his proposals arrived only from Russia.

Nevertheless, regardless of the fact that Tudjman has shocked western diplomats again equally as his own people, his rapprochement to Dedinje and Moscow should be placed in the context of the German initiative on the Pact on Stability which should, according to Croatian assessments, contribute to resolution of the crisis in Kosovo. This is a plan on joint action of countries of south-eastern Europe. Similar initiatives were persistently rejected by Croatia with the pretext that the West in fact wished to restore Yugoslavia and push Croatia back into the Balkan, although as everyone knows it is a central European country which deserves to join united Europe on its own without any pact.

On Saturday, as a preparatory gathering for the conference to be held on 26 and 27 May in Petersburg near Bonn, representatives of Croatia, Albania, B&H, Bulgaria, Hungary, Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia, Greece, Turkey and Montenegro met in Zagreb together with American ambassador Montgomery and German ambassador Volker Haak. Deputy foreign minister of Croatia, Ivo Sanader, declared on the occasion that the Pact was a reflection of Croatian interestes. First, it would contribute to resolution of the crisis of Kosovo, that is, in the eastern neighbourhood, it would help strengthening of regional cooperation, it offered clear prospects for the future to the countries in the region by intensifying relations with European and Euro-Atlantic associations, and finally it would make many multinational and bilateral activities coherent.

The German proposal obviously intends to link the south-eastern countries with other parts of Europe as firmly as possible, but it is immediately observed that this group of countries is not intended just to stop or resolve the crisis of Kosovo or that of Yugoslavia, but a more longterm role is assigned to it. It is quite clear that FR Yugoslavia is also counted on, but this will have to wait for the end of the war. Although some would like to present this as an action of countries of the first line, it seems that those are right who claim that the currently existing big black hole will subsequently be filled up and that a place will be found for Belgrade.

Tudjman is perfectly aware of this, but this does not give him the right to give instructions to anybody how to furnish his own apartment or to naively, stupidly and condescendingly interfere in relations with other countries, especially when he himself has too many problems at home. With this recipe of his, he has just intensified his own problems, because he introduced additional confusion among his own ranks. So while Tudjman is lamenting over historical aspirations and sentiments of the Serb people, in Washington deputy prime minister Jure Radic is demanding definite defeat of the Balkan butcher, if necessary even by use of ground troops. On the other hand, Croatian representative in the UN Ivan Simonovic is offering Tudjman's initiative. So is somebody crazy or to say the least - strange?

GOJKO MARINKOVIC