B&H Prospects for the Future

I am Leaving Where It will be Better

AIM Sarajevo, 17 May, 1999

According to unofficial data, in the course of last year, 1998, more than 80 thousand of citizens of B&H, mostly young people, a large number of university educated among them, have left B&H. They have gone in search for a better life for themselves and their children, because they could not find a place for themselves in the chaos and hopelessness after the war in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

What does hopelessness mean in B&H? According to the latest data of March this year, in B&H Federation there were only 407,064 employed persons, out of which 68 thousand just fictively, that is they are "on leave" with the possibility to be sacked. There are 262 thousand registered persons who are looking for jobs, and just 1,386 vacancies - 189 persons might apply for one job! The process of privatization which is just getting into full swing will result in new unemployed (it is assumed that another several ten thousand workers will lose their jobs) and monthly pay of majority of the employed is symbolic: almost 60 per cent of the popuation of B&H Federation has the (legally registered) income of 6 German marks a day or 200 marks a month, which is the so-called "minimum" wage prescribed by law. Nobody dares publicly try to calculate the full amount of internal debt and illiquidity, and estimates of the foreign debt of B&H also vary, but in any case the figure is extremely high. Production is very low, there is practically no export... "We export foregn currency", the economists say.

Hardly anyone among those who are unemployed or completing their education sees any prospects for the future in B&H. It is seen only in a job in one of the international organizations - they pay well and regularly, but there are less and less of them, and their needs are diminishing. The burden of socialism and planned economy which the parents have passed on to their offspring through up-bringing is making it difficult for them to adapt to the new market trends and the way of thinking on market principles. Not being able or lacking courage, and to be perfectly honest, having no objective conditions to cope with reality, young people set out on a journey to the third countries which, via TV, films, Internet and literature, seem to offer much better prospects for the future and in which it is simpler to survive.

However, it is not roses all the way over there either: "I was there for six months and came back", says a young Sarajevan who had gone to America through an international organization which offers programs for emmigrants. "I got a job right away, worked as a house painter, I could earn good money. But I had to pay back the loan for the plane tickets to America for myself and my wife, the loan for the apartment... To be honest, economically speaking, we could have stayed and perhaps we would have started living well soon, but we realised that it did not suit us - neither the tempo of life nor the way of thinking. After all, we would have been immigrants and citizens of the second order for the rest of our lives, it would have been difficult to get a serious job which would be adequate to our education. I was not happy there, not for a minute", says this returnee from the USA. On the other hand, hundreds of young couples or single persons are leaving from B&H cities towards Split and Zagreb where they apply for permits to enter America in authorized offices of American embassies: every week a plane takes off from Split airport full of passengers to the unknown but believed to be a country of happier and better future.

Federal prime minister Edhem Bicakcic says that B&H Federation could reach the prewar level of gross national income by 2005, which is the level of a self-sustainable economy. He expresses the conviction that full integration of B&H into European associations, primarily the Council of Europe, would ensure future development of B&H. According to Bicakcic, it is necessary first to stimulate economic development of Republika Srpska which is at this moment in a somewhat worse position than B&H Federation, and carry out "the project of just privatisation, achieve full effective employment and social security, and reduce import". Because of the latter, federal prime minister, whenever he is given the opportunity, appeals on the citizens of B&H to buy domestic products - that is how domestic production is stimulated and many other processes set in motion. But, to what extent such advertising is sufficient in a tide of other problems?

In the Office of High Representative of UN for B&H, deputy for economic issues Didier Fau expressed satisfaction a few days ago with the course of reform in B&H - full use of domestic currency, the convertible mark, the beginning of reform of payment operations, banking system, and as he said acceleration of the privatisation trends: "Transformation in the sphere of economy and the state itself is yielding results slowly, but they are nevertheless visible in B&H", claims Fau.

Professor of economy Nikola Grabovac, former deputy minister of foreign trade in the Council of Ministers of B&H, and now vice president of the Alternative Council of Ministers of B&H, spoke on this topic for AIM. According to him, the first and the main reason for such catastrophic situation in B&H is its political leadership: "They are people who do not have a vision for B&H even for two days ahead, and besides their war objectives are still in the game: the Croats in it hope for division of B&H, the Serbs hope for annexation to FR Yugoslavia, and the Bosniacs for their domination in B&H. This political leadership has not solved a single strategic issue except stopping of the war, and they could not achieve even that on their own", says Grabovac. His estimate is that "with good macro economic measures, the economy could be revived within six months", but "since there is no dialogue and agreement in B&H, and those reached so far are broken - there is no progress", claims this known economist: "Sometimes I think that mistreatment of the citizens at all instances, from municipal windows onwards, is the result of ethnic intolerance, and then I realise that it does not have anything to do with it any more. All the citizens are mistreated here, regardless of anything". Grabovac has certain specific ideas for resolving some of the problems, for example, for propelling employment: for every newly employed who was unemployed for three years, the company should be granted a loan of 5,000 German marks to be paid back within three years at 8 per cent interest, contributions for his salary would be 0 per cent during the first 6 months, 30 per cent during the following three months, and 50 per cent for the three months after that. A change in turnover tax calculation and adapting to the world trends in this field would certainly yield better results than the existing principles, but: "Nobody wants to listen", says Grabovac and adds that he is one of the last professor-economists who were members of any government in B&H, on any level of the administration.

The solution for entire Balkan according to Grabovac is "quick joining of European associations, specifically the European Union, because laws of the European Union have to be enforced in all member countries, and not domestic ones. We cannot reach an adequate level of legislature in 40-50 years". The news in this statement which is never mentioned in B&H is the possibility of joining the European Union by a country without its previous modification of domestic legislature: "Laws published in the official gazette in Brussels do not refer to any particular country, but they are legally binding for all members of the European Union. For example, if a company in Germany wishes to take another company to court, it has the right to demand application of European and not German laws - European legislature is 'superior' to domestic laws of member states. At this moment, associate membership or some other form would be suitable for B&H. The part of rights achieved by joining, such as the right to emigration or similar, might be suspended, because now it is possible to move from one member state of the Union to another by just registering with the police... B&H must show its wish to move in the direction of Europe and European associations - it should pass at least the minimum of laws, at least two per cent, and then the European Union could exert presure on B&H and its authorities from within", Grabovac claims. The solution for B&H, "the most complicated state in the world", he sees in the change of cadre which is leading it, both the domestic and representatives of the international community. Of course, this could be achieved by amending the election law which would lead to the possibility of different results of the elections. "With the election law now in force which gives preference to the ruling party, the people might easily elect the same authorities, and they have neithet the wish not the knowledge to resolve problems in this country. We have the case of Sarajevo where the cantonal Party of Democratic Action ordered the voters that NHI (Opposition party of Bosnian Croats) must not win a single vote, but only the HDZ (Croat Democratic Community), because they are coalition partners which for seven years already lead the state as they do", says Grabovac.

From one election to another, the only figure that is growing is unfortunately the one which shows how many young Bosnians and Herzegovinians have decided to look for their fortune somewhere outside this space. Those who are sporadically returning, have a new trump card in their pockets

• passports and citizenships of western countries in case the authorities of this country continue to wholeheartedly work for prosperity - but solely of their own and that of their families.

Rubina CENGIC

(AIM, Sarajevo)