Citizens and Elections

Ethnicity Above All

AIM Banja Luka, 8 May, 1999

Results of a poll conducted by OSCE in Bosnia & Herzegovina (B&H) in March this year showed what the local politicians know too well and the officials of the international community and well meaning conveyers of western experience persistently ignore. It turned out that democracy does not come with reasonable political rhetoric or good results of practical policy, and even less with good elections rules and fair election procedures.

The poll on the sample of three thousand citizens in both B&H entities included one thousand voters of each of the three ethnic groups - Bosniac, Serb and Croat - at the age above 18. In the chosen samples, sexes, age groups, education, membership in political parties and place of residence were equally represented. Before questions were formulated, polls were conducted in focus groups, so that in respect to the proportions of the sample and the method applied in the poll, the error was only up to three per cent.

To the question why they had voted the way they did in the previous parliamentary elections, 31.3 per cent of the pollees answered that they had voted for the party which best represented their ethnic interests. Almost 18 per cent of the subjects stated that they had voted out of habit. The other given reasons referred to national interests, membership in parties and economic program of parties. Another 24.4 per cent of the pollees gave "other reasons" for their voting.

Contrary to expectations, the results show that ethnicity and ethnic interest have a predominant influence on the voters. This influence is especially expressed among minority ethnic groups - Serbs and Croats. Almost half of the voters clearly stated that ethnic identity was the primary reason that affected their decision who to vote for. A quarter of the sample stated ethnic identity as the second important reason for the decision who to vote for. Economy, social status, living conditions, development of society and advancement of democracy were not factors that motivated the choice of the voters.

Answers to the question whether the voters could influence the process of decision-making in the administration were also disappointing. Almost half of the pollees (46.8 per cent) believe that they can have very little influence, almost 38.3 per cent think that they have no influence at all, and 10.7 per cent think that they have some influence on decision-making of the authorities. Only 2.6 per cent think that they have great influence.

To the question to what extent representatives elected in September elections answer for their political actions to the citizens, almost half of the pollees believe that they are not sufficiently responsible (47.4 per cent). One quarter of them believe that the chosen representatives are sufficiently responsible, while another quarter believe that they do not answer to their voters at all.

Results of the poll showed that the majority of the voters (82.4 per cent) would prefer to elect their municipal presidents and heads by direct voting, and only 15.2 per cent think that they should be elected by municipal councils (assemblies). Majority of pollees declared that they wished there were a smaller number of political parties, but confirmed great interest for elections on all levels. A large number of voters believe that the election system is just to all the candidates and parties. Eight out of ten voters do not think that there is anything bad about the system of closed lists and proportional system of voting.

The poll was conducted as part of the information campaign on permanent election law which the management board of the council for implementation of the peace accords was charged by OSCE to organise at the conference in Madrid. As part of this campaign, the first out of six plenary conferences of journalists from B&H Federation and Republika of Srpska was held in Sarajevo a few days ago. "The objectives of the campaign is to engage the citizens in a dialogue on election systems and laws in B&H through round table discussions, public opinion polls, TV and radio contact shows, questionnaires and Internet presentation", said Tanja Domi, OSCE spokeswoman at the conference. The first phase of the information campaign started in mid March by organising round table discussions in Serb Sarajevo, Sarajevo and Mostar, and the second phase will be when the draft election law is put in the procedure in B&H Assembly.

The political public has already joined the polemic on the permanent election law. Mico Carevic, professor of constitutional law from Banja Luka, criticised the existing election system on several public occasions claiming that the system of political party lists of candidates because it does not give the voters the opportunity to elect, but just to vote. According to Carevic, the voters choose a party list, not the persons on it.

Sejfudin Tokic, deputy prime minister of the Alternative Council of Ministers of B&H, says that members of B&H Presidency should be elected by all the three peoples in B&H "because they must answer for their acts to everybody". At the same time, Tokic advocates postponing of local elections scheduled for autumn this year, and he believes that they should take place at the same time as parliamentary elections

• in spring 2000. Tokic says that this would enable Carlos Westendorp to remove from office all those who failed to implement the Dayton peace agreement before they are re-elected.

Political parties of ethnic orientation do not share this opinion. Published results of the poll will just encourage them to persist in defence of the existing election system and reinforce their positions. The election campaign, all things consisdered, will be preceded by a merciless campaign against the permanent election law in which it will be impossible to hear the voice of reason in favour of changes. They will present to their voters every attempt to incorporate new rules into the election system as violation of their ethnic rights and unitarisation. And this will be just another reason for ethnic homogenisation.

Branko Peric

(AIM)