The Quarrel between Dodik and Izetbegovic

Messages for Domestic Public

Although Dodik's prime minister's post and his government depend on the votes of the deputies of SDA, he can afford the luxury to attack Izetbegovic: he will not be the one to tell deputies of SDA who to vote for, but Westendorp.

AIM Sarajevo, 28 April, 1999

Quite unexpectedly, at the time when renomination of Milorad Dodik for candidate of prime minister is expected, he quarrelled with Alija Izetbegovic. The question that arises in Sarajevo is whether after this strain in the relations deputies of the coalition headed by the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) will deny their votes to Dodik's government, without whose 16 votes in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska it neither could nor will be able to be re-elected. In a statement of the SDA and that of Sulejman Tihic, vice president of the party and deputy in the assembly of RS, a clear political message was addressed to Dodik - he was reminded that deputies of SDA had supported his government. A discreet threat could be read between the lines that this support could be denied him if Dodik continued with his undiplomatic declarations.

Observers in Sarajevo do not believe this will happen if Dodik should be given the opportunity to form the cabinet. However, the quarrel indicates two things: first, the support of Bosniac deputies is on the domestic political scene a weight around his leg and he would gladly rid himself of this burden, but cannot; and second, this support is taken for granted, but there is neiether love nor healthy political interest that links the partners.

The immediate cause of the quarrel was not true political differences. In his appearance on Banja Luka Alternative Television which operates as part of OBN network, Dodik used the opportunity to show the domestic public that he shares the opinion about Alija Izetbegovic with all the other Serbs. To the question whether he was informed about the declaration proposed by Izetbegovic at the 6th session of the main board of SDA (which refers to the task of SDA deputies in the assembly of RS to work in favour of integration of B&H, and return of refugees), Dodik said: "I am not at all interested in what Alija Izetbegovic thinks about what will happen in RS. I am not a man who has ever made problems to B&H Federation. Alija Izetbegovic had better take care how the Muslims live in the Federation than be concerned about Republika Srpska. We have a joint reality which is called Dayton B&H with two entities. The fact that this does not suit the Muslims is their problem. The fact that in Dayton B&H Alija Izetbegovic failed to achieve the principles of the Islamic declaration is his problem not mine. Alija Izetbegovic has not been a representative of a single Serb. Let him say whatever he pleases, but B&H is a state to the extent the Serbs want it to be, not just the Muslims. B&H can be only the one created in Dayton, or it will perish", said Dodik for Alternative TV Banja Luka.

In the statement of SDA it is claimed that Alija Izetbegovic as a member of the presidency and leader of this party is entitled to speak and politically act concerning Republika Srpska, too. It is also reminded that SDA as the greatest party in the Coalition for United B&H has deputies in the National Assembly of RS without whose support it would have been impossible to elect the current government headed by Milorad Dodik. It was mentioned that Izetbegovic's influence on deputies of SDA was decisive for them to raise their hands in favour of Dodik.

This is the first public quarrel between Dodik and Izetbegovic. Opinions of political observers in Sarajevo are divided about whether a response to Dodik should have been issued. In the response carried by the official agency B&H Press, it was assessed that the statement was "blunt" with a remark that "Dodik has no diplomatic feeling".

Everybody in Sarajevo is aware that Dodik's statement is the result of internal political needs. The prime minister of RS is already labelled as a traitor by the Radicals and the Serb Democratic Party (SDS), and his government is reproached for "supporting the Muslims", for its pro-Western orientation, connections with the Americans, etc. After removal of Poplasen, the arbitration decision on Brcko, but especially after NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, the political scene in RS has moved to the right which weakened the position of the government and prime minister himself who is believed to be a moderate politician. The first humanitarian convoy sent to Yugoslavia was returned from the border by Milosevic with the remark that "aid of a pro-American government shall not be received". This was a heavy blow for Dodik at the moment when the Serbs are gathering around Milosevic again. That is why Dodik is forced to compete in patriotism and attack enemies of the Serbs: at the moment they are the Americans and Muslims (Bosniacs who "want unitarian B&H").

It is more interesting what political consequences this quarrel will have. The question arises whether deputies of SDA, should Dodik be given the opportunity to compose the cabinet, raise their hands in his favour again? The statement itself does not include any threats and one could say that it is decent and mild. In a statement given to Dnevni Avaz, the newly elected vice-president of the party and deputy in the Assembly of RS, Sulejman Tihic, cautiously reminded Dodik who had helped him to be elected the first time.

Dodik was liked in Sarajevo. This is not just the result of support he was offered by independent media in the Federation, but also of the consistent conciliatory tone in statements of SDA spokesman Adnan Jahic. At the same time, the public considered him a politician who is not a nationalist but a pragmatist who knows that cooperation with Sarajevo and the international community is in the interest of RS. He is known for his pragmatic relations with federal prime minister Edhem Bicakcic in the sphere of economic cooperation.

However, cooperation of Dodik and deputies of CD Coalition, that is the leadership in Sarajevo does not have a political essence. Sarajevo supported (and still supports) Dodik because it believed that any other prime minister who would be be from the ranks of SDS or the Radicals or even independent Mladen Ivanic would not keep SDS and the Radicals at a tolerable distance from power. Dodik is aware of the limitations of his environment, so he avoided to even mention the Bosniacs least of all to enable their participation in the government. He did not meet the expectations of Sarajevo concerning return of refugees, creation of multi-ethnic Brcko. His government impeded as much as it could passing of property and housing laws, and when they were passed they did not guarantee return of refugees. However, Dodik generally accepted measures imposed by the Office of High Represntative (OHR) - from vehicle licence plates to the convertible mark, which contributed to implementation of the Dayton accords. In comparison with the results of previous governments of RS, what he has done so far was sufficient to ensure the support of Sarajevo.

This does not mean that when and if the time comes for Dodik to be nominated candidate for prime minister SDA will not try to obtain certain concessions in exchange for support of its deputies. In the given situation, chances for such a bargain are small: due to internal conditions Dodik must not go too far (even support of Bosniac deputies is too heavy political burden for him), and on the other hand, the Bosniacs cannot be too firm, because they have no alternative for Dodik.

After all, political relations between Dodik and Izetbegovic are not that important. A few days ago Gelbard declared that he supported only Dodik and his government because they had the majority in the parliament. The stand of the OHR is identical to that of Westendorp. To what extent can SDA with its 16 votes actually influence Dodik's government? Technically speaking - it can influence its election, but politically - very little. The international community is exerting pressure on Sarajevo and on how the deputies of SDA in the assembly of RS will vote. Dodik is well aware of that and that is the reason why he can afford to attack Izetbegovic.

Emir HABUL

AIM Sarajevo