MONTENEGRO' S CROSSROADS AND ALBANIA

AIM Tirana, April 21, 1999

The great clash border between the West and the East came down from Berlin to Western Balkan. Albania and Macedonia seem to have entered definitely the area of USA and its European allies' influence. Meanwhile, the hot line of the confrontation between the two camps, atavism of which seems to still continue, and are hazarding to return to the Cold War, according to the case, crosses Kosovo and Montenegro.

The battle for Kosovo is a geopolitical conflict. It is an open battle. The small republic of Montenegro, which has given many state men to Serbia and has witnessed a great tradition of independence, as the only country could not be occupied by ottomans, beyond doubts, is close to a king of such a situation.

Which side is Montenegro going to? This dilemma is felt with concern not only by NATO countries, but also by the public opinion and the official Tirana. After the decision in Belgrade to break up diplomatic relations with Albania, Tirana has stressed that it desires good relations with Podgorica and it will adopt a differentiated position towards Montenegro.

Events in Montenegro were felt with uncommon interest in Tirana, which after the flood of refugees seems to appreciate better Montenegro than Macedonia. Newspapers in Tirana continue to give attention to positions of President Djukanovic fearing a possible coup d'etat of Milosevic in Montenegro. The first ethnic cleansing in the Albanian villages in Montenegro has caused a great concern in Albania. This seems to represent another serious step of Milosevic's attack to the mutineer republic.

Now, apart from daily events, geopolitics is the today science there is no lack of analysis and speculations about Montenegro's fate, its relations with Albania and Albanian in general.

Actually the clash between the two main aspirations of Montenegro, that heading towards the West (USA) and the other aiming the East (Russia), seems to lie yet underground but conflict is rapidly emerging to the surface and is ready to explode.

An outstanding politician personifies each part. Each "camp" has its own "chevalier": The West has Djukanovic and the East has Bulatovic. Who is going to win? Today the forces are quite equal. The parts are working to attire the most to them. Djukanovic claims more the logic, reality, and important economic interests of the average Montenegrin, while Bulatovic tries to appeal his nationals with feelings, medieval legends and the Orthodox Panslavism. It is comprehensible that intellectuals, citizens and emancipated people of Montenegro stay close to President Djukanovic, while illiterate, peasants, and fanatics of both army and religious communities, flow to Bulatovic.

It is clear that the developments in Montenegro are too dramatic. It seems that the man of Milosevic, Bulatovic, who operates from Belgrade, is actually in attack. The substitution of General Martinovic with a strong Serb hand, as the new commander of Second Armada, Obradovic, supports this affirmation. It is very interesting the fact that Djukanovic knew about the nomination of Obradovic as commander in chief of Montenegro Armada from western intelligence. The special task of newly nominated general seems to be that if the conflict aggravates furthermore at the extent of being unstoppable, President Djukanovic should immediately be overthrown. Part of the strategy of continuously provoking Montenegro is also the Kilibarda question, Vice Prime Minister of Montenegro who is under risk of arrest from Yugoslavian Military Court accused of "having mined the defense ability of Yugoslavia."

What the perspective could be? Is Montenegro going towards more independence from Belgrade or a more rigid control from it? And, is it going towards the secession?

As it seems, Djukanovoc is not among those prone to easily surrender. Preparing a too numerous Police for his small country, around 15 thousand members, it is ready to enter in a conflict with the army to protect Montenegro from the assimilation, The Montenegro President, relies in a support from the West. Can NATO intervene in an intestine conflict of Yugoslavian federation between its two last republics left, inhabited from people that speak the same language and practice the same religion? This constitutes something absolutely unpredictable. As for today, it would be difficult for the Alliance to intervene. But, this is an opinion raised on the basis of a new real actual situation. The development of the situation in Yugoslavia is going so fast that what is impossible today in a month or two becomes not only possible, but also entirely normal and vice-versa.

What would Montenegro gain or loose seceding from Yugoslav Federation?

Through the optical of those who watch from Tirana, breaking the threads linking Montenegro with Serbia and Russia definitely shifts into the western area of influence. This will provide to Montenegro priorities in aid and big investments from those countries that once made Yugoslavia of Tito an unmatchable show for the other East European communist countries.

Such a choice is in conformity with the geographical position of Montenegro. The Serbia-Montenegrin border is divided by high mountains and difficult to cross them, while the southwestern coast is open to the western world.

Again this choice would make of Montenegro a natural economical and commercial partner of northwestern Albania, principally Shkodra, reviving the secular relations it has had with this area.

Surely, a possible secession would unchain an unbearable anger of Serbia. It is comprehensible that if Djukanovic had taken it great step at the end of March or the beginning of April, he would have lost. Nothing the same can be said for the coming weeks and months. The Serb Armada is going to crumble. Its counter action ability is still great. But if NATO strikes will continue with the same intensity - ironically Montenegro is receiving its "due" part of this terrible punishment coming from the sky - there will come the moment that Belgrade will not have any practical mean to react.

The unrepeatable moment that western Balkan is living through would be also the moment of Montenegro. While Milosevic has signed the unification of actual Yugoslavia (thus, with Montenegro too) with Belarus of Lukashenko and Russia of Yeltsin, Montenegro tries to see to the West. Paradoxically, the smallest Balkan country is an ally of those airplanes flying over its sky. Between Schilla and Caribda, Montenegro should make its most difficult choice, and maybe the most dangerous. SKENDER SHKUPI (AIM)