Croatia Closer to the West

One Man's Loss is Another Man's Gain

AIM Zagreb, 18 April, 1999

Praised for its support offered to NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, Croatia continues to score points on account of the emergency situation in the region. After the United States had lifted the embargo on import of arms introduced back in the beginning of the nineties and indirectly confirmed in Dayton where proportional disarmament of the region was agreed

• Croatian head of diplomacy recently announced a new privilege for Zagreb. He announced the forthcoming American-Croatian talks on Croatia's joining the Partnership for Peace which is the entrance hall to NATO, and which was until recently believed to be unaccessible for it in the foreseeable future. But the miracle of new international involvement in the region is doing its bit, and the doors of the Partnership for Peace have slightly opened, while Croatia is expected to meet comparatively serious demands, but not as serious as until now. The demands are a new election law with the greatest possible agreement of the opposition, continuation of cooperation with the Hague tribunal (with top priority on extradition of warlords from Herzegovina Tuta and Stela), and consistent implementation of the Dayton accords.

Although there are still no guarantees that Croatia will actually meet these mitigated conditions, a specific American promotion of the new member of the Partnership for Peace has already begun. A few days ago Croatian minister of defence Pavao Miljavac accompanied by American ambassador William Montgomery visited the main staff of American armed forces in Europe. Montgomery declared that the aim of the visit was "to show gratitude for the constructive role of Croatia in the crisis of Kosovo, to inform Croatia about the situation in Kosovo, and to exchange opinions on that problem".

It is clear, however, that more important than the possible topic of conversation in the American main staff is the fact that Miljavac was where the ministers of non-member NATO states quite certainly set foot on only in exceptional circumstances. That is why his visit to the staff in Stuttgardt had an expressed symbolic meaning, and it was an honour Miljavac could not have hoped for even in his wildest dreams. But, it seems that European NATO member states could not have expected that either, which will be heard of in the next few weeks and months.

So far, only a morose statement was registered of a representative of the European Commission in Zagreb, Per Vinther, who said that Croatia's joining European and Euro-Atlantic associations was not questioned, but reminded that European countries also had a say about it, and not just their powerful American partner. Vinther's words clearly radiate pessimism in connection with the hasty introduction of Croatia from the waiting room straight to the entrance door of main western associations, and probably reflect discontent and general situation in the region after NATO intervention in Yugoslavia.

But, at least for the time being, this will not significantly affect relations among NATO members which all together sign the military operation in Yugoslavia, and should it be made public that the United States direct the operation, it is uncertain which party would be more compromised by it. That is why it is better not to look back but launch new political initiatives in order to re-establish the disturbed balance in the alliance, and send a message to Milosevic to give up hope that the intervention will collapse because of disunity in it. All things considered, that is the possible explanation why the contours of a new order in the Balkan region were made public.

According to information published by Croatian foreign ministry, this new order would follow the old "regional approach" which Croatia had stubbornly opposed, even before it became quite clear what it really implied. This new regional project of this part of Europe bears the name Pact for Stability, its author is German foreign minister Joscka Fischer, and it would include Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Yugoslavia and Macedonia. Membership of Croatia would be considered, it was said, but with no details what this meant, so it seems that the negotiations about it are still under way and this could be the key point of future relations of Croatia with the West.

From the name of the mentioned pact it is clear that the intention is to include in it all the unstable countries in the region, which is a qualification angrily rejected by Croatia, but that is how it is or until just recently was looked upon by members of the western alliance. Nowadays, especially those from across the Atlantic might insist on it. The American approach will probably be evidently different and it might even treat Croatia as some kind of an unformal commissioner for the region.

Croatia's further involvement in western associations would in this way be anchored in the Balkan, but at the same time it would be pleasing for its vanity, or rather for Franjo Tudjman's vanity who likes to call Croatia a "regional power", although this does not at all fit in with the equally persistent repetition that it is a Central European and a Mediterranean country, but by no means a Balkan country. Will this delicate opeation - under the condition that it will take place, of course - manage to draw Croatia into these western combinations about the situation in the region, it is hard to tell. Croatian diplomacy headed by Mate Granic is whole-heartedly supporting involvement in western plans, with the intention to take the unexpected opportunity which seems to have come out of nowhere.

But, Tudjman's declarations given in the course of the past winter that Croatia would not join western associations at any cost are still fresh in the memory. What is the price he has never said, but it is easy to guess. If there would be any trace of doubt that meeting conditions of the West would in any way threaten remaining of the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) in power, rich gifts offered especially by the Americans would be without any doubt turned down, as it happened so many times before during the past years. But the ruling party has reason for satisfaction with the new situation in the region, because it has always been a belligerent party which feels best when somewhere shooting starts, even if it is in the neighbourhood.

Radical feelings rise then, and this war which has practically ruined political life in Serbia, has also brought down to earth political forces in Croatia. The fact that speaks best about it is that after several months of partly boycotting the assembly the opposition is thinking of resuming their seats, and among the mentioned reasons for this is the war in the neighbourhood. What does the war have to do with the boycott that started when the war was not even in sight, nobody says, but HDZ welcomed the opportunity to ridicule the opposition by saying that now it became clear that it did not know what it wanted.

This could be an important moment for the ruling party which all the polls predict will lose the forthcomng parliamentary elections, but the latest situation enables it to at least partly take the initiative and try to evade the worst destiny. Whether it wil succeed is less certain because until the elections - should they take place as scheduled - there are more than six months, and by then the situation in the region might essentially change again. But, nowadays, the attention of the public which had for years focused on internal policy, moved towards foreign policy where HDZ will finally be enabled to use certain trump cards. And for that party, even this is good enough.

MARINKO CULIC