American Bombs and Croatian Differentiation

AIM Zagreb, 11 April, 1999

As of Saturday, Croatia can buy arms from the USA. That is what president Clinton decided and in this way lifted the embargo on import of arms on the territtory of former Yugoslavia imposed by UN Security Council way back in 1991. This simultaneously demystefied the statement of American ambassador in Croatia, Montgomery, given on Thursday to Croatian Television that "in two or three days, certain specific measures in connection with rapprochement of Croatia and the international organisations will be made public". Montgomery also said that we were on the right side. He said they knew how much our country was suffering because of NATO operation in FRY, but the international community would show its appreciation of this contribution, but he also added that the "future of Croatia and its position in relation to important European and world associations primarily depends on Croatian leadership which is expected to make important decisions".

Clinton's Presidential Determination is rightfully considered to be the first step towards Croatia's joining the Partnership for Peace, especially when one knows that its representatives are regularly participating in bodies of this organization along with those of the countries which are already full-fledged members. Many analysts are considering reasons for this more or less unexpected decision, because, for example, Croatian ambassador in the European Union, Janko Dobrinovic Vranyzany, assessed just a few days ago that something like that was possible (joining of the Partnership for Peace) only after parliamentary elections. Most of the answers are to be found in what ambassador Montgomery said. Although passively, Croatia is participating in NATO operations against FRY: it has put its air and sea space at its disposal, Rijeka harbour and Krk airport are offering services to SFOR and NATO, and the airport Klisa near Osijek was also offered, Croatian airplanes are participating in delivering humanitarian aid to Kosovo Albanian refugees, and Croatia intends to give a temporary home to about ten thousand of them.

The Americans chose Croatia for their military ally in this region, but as it is usually the case with them, that did not seem to be enough. Although spokesman of HDZ Ivica Ropus and vice president of the party and assembly Vladimir Seks pretended innocence because they allegedly had no idea what the ambassador was talking about when he mentioned "quick steps of Croatian authorities", it is clear that the steps had already been made. At the time of the meeting of minister Granic with Madelaine Albright last week, HDZ offered the opposition negotiations on election law, and pretending that he had no idea what it was all about occurred at the press conference where the party in power made it clear that it was ready for concessions and compromise. Furthermore, the Americans demand that Croatia extradite Mladen Naletilic alias Tuta and Vinko Martinovic alias Stela to the tribunal in the Hague, thta tensions concerning the border with Bosnia & Herzegovina be immediately eased, that its behavior to the media and freedom of the media change, especially demanding a different Croatian Television which is party television more than ever, and that the financial situation of printed media be improved which are threatened since the bankruptcy of the greatest distributer, Tisak. This is not the end of the list, but to cut the long story short, America wants democratisation of Croatia, its army and police inclusive. It is, therefore, questionable what they think about the expanding authorisation of president Tudjman.

That Croatia has met most of the demands and that it would take the remaining "steps" is confirmed by the fact that on Thursday, at the gathering of American Croats in Chicago on the occasion of opening of a new consulate and presentation of Croatia as the possible American economic partner, special envoy for implementation of Dayton accords, Robert Gelbard himself, was present. He also spoke about support offered to Croatia to enter European and world associations and added the inevitable: "The speed depends on you". At the same time, American deputy minister of trade declares that Croatia is a safe country for investments and that one billion dollars has already entered it, and that the IMF and the World Bank are ready to grant loans under favourable conditions.

Although it is clear that this is a bargaining arrangement, analysts wonder who has gained the most inside Croatia from these American moves. The American call to join the Partnership for Peace is assessed by the ruling HDZ as its great victory and a trump card to be used in the elections, and the opposition is trying to prove that HDZ has finally chosen to back the only possible democratic option which it is stressing for years. In any case, the ones and the others will try to make best use of these American gifts, maybe insufficiently aware that the Americans were guided primarily by purely pragmatic objectives and the attempt to anchor their aircraft carrier - Croatia - in the middle of Europe.

The Americans are allegedly satisfied with the proposal of the election law offered by a group of experts, according to which Croatia would be divided into ten electoral districts, and only the system of proportional representation would be applied according to which between 10 and 14 representatives would be elected from each electoral district. Allegedly, they do not mind any more the separate list for diaspora, and the only debatable question remains how many representatives in the Assembly would be elected from this 11th district. HDZ immediately accepted this concept, but for the most powerful opposition parties diaspora is the most problematic issue, since they consider it to be the reserve force of HDZ. Besides, quite a few parties are still in favour of a mixed election system and reduction of the very high election quota of five per cent. But, be what may, it remains questinable whether the Americans are helping HDZ or whether they believe that it will lose power regardless of the election system, only if adequate control is established and stealing and manipulation are prevented. It seems, however, that the closest to the truth are those who claim that the American objective is differentiation inside Croatia regardless of political parties and party affiliation, because the fact that Tuta and Stela must go to the Hague is a clear message to extreme rightists and belligerent hardliners of all kinds.

The most reserved opinions are those concerned why the Americans are right now, before the elections, saving the Croatian government from economic collapse and pouring fresh dollars into empty its budgets and funds. This is in any case direct support to the authorities, but are not closer to the truth those who think that at this moment America needs a stable Croatia, and not a country disunited and shaken by social and other disturbances. And then again, one should not forget that the capital has its own logic. Cosequences of American moves will certainly change the picture of Croatia and shuffle the already dealt cards on the Croatian political scene, the greatest benefit of which would be for Croatia itself. The only question is how everybody will play their trump cards. One thing is certain: HDZ will continue to exist, but neither it nor some other parties will ever be the same. Croatia is stepping into a completely new era in which there certainly will be no dominating party, but democracy will finally be given a chance.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC