Montenegro Threatened by a Coup

**How to remain in the Saddle

For survival of Montenegrin authorities, developments on the ground can be much more dangerous than the threat from the sky

• NATO strikes

AIM Podgorica, 8 April, 1999

"I take these announcements very seriously", Montenegrin president Djukanovic said through clenched teeth. Answering to the question of a CNN journalist about the possibility of Milosevic overthrowing Montenegrin authorities with the help of loyal generals in the Army of Yugoslavia, Djukanovic claimed that he held everything under control.

This was the first public appearance of a Montenegrin official who confirmed that in the shadow of the was, Belgrade was preparing a "blitz crieg" against Montenegro. There had been rumours about it inside "the well-informed circles" but there had been no official announcements from the top of Montenegrin authorities. Swift replacement of general Martinovic from the post of the commander-in-chief of the Army of Yugoslavia in Montenegro by general Obradovic seems to be a clear signal that Belgrade wished to have two irons in the fire: to endure air strikes of the Alliance and to bring loyal men to power in Podgorica.

At first there were rumours and then on Thursday, 1 April, it was published that "by decision of the supreme commander or armed forces", a new commander of the second army corps was appointed - lieutenant-colonel general Milorad Obradovic. The reason why Martinovic was removed was not publicly stated. But, immediately after the replacement, western sources alarmingly warned that Obradovic had been brought to overthrow Montenegrin authorities. Later on, Djukanovic also pointed out to genuine danger of internal actions of the Army of Yugoslavia. It is interesting that according to the available data, Montenegrin authorities have learnt about Martinovic's replacement from western intelligence sources! This speaks for itself of how disturbed relations of the ruling coalition and the military authorities are.

Indeed, what could be the reason for replacement of Martinovic? In the first days of the attack of the Alliance forces, Martinovic abided by military logic. He removed the soldiers from the barracks which could be the target of the attack, he dislocated the mobile radar installations from their previous locations, and left the static radar systems undefended. Briefly, he did the only thing that he could have done: prevented loss of human lives and equipment, and preserved Montenegrin territory of destruction which would have inevitably taken place as a reaction of NATO planes to attacks from the ground. On the other hand, he did not do anything that would mark rapprochement of Martinovic to Montenegrin state leadership. On the contrary: reliable sources claim that the communication between the Army and the Montenegrin state was reduced to a minimum, and that the replaced general was inclined towards the leadership of the Socialist National Party (SNP), Milosevic's allies in Montenegro. In fact, about ten days before he was replaced Martinovic had officially received the leaders of the SNP.

However, not even such a general could satisfy Belgrade. All this leads to the conclusion that the new commander of the Army of Yugoslavia (VJ) in Montenegro, Milorad Obradovic, has additional orders apart from reorganisation of the army in Montenegro. The "knight from Durmitor" as officially presented in Serb media, was marked a long time ago as a man of confidence of the regime in Belgrade. At the same time, he knows very well the military structure in Montenegro because he used to be the garrison commander in Maline (Podgorica). He politically clearly declared himself to be a great supporter of Milosevic and his followers in Montenegro: last year he attended promotion gatherings of Bulatovic's party.

But, if Obradovic was brought with the aim to destabilise Montenegrin authorities it seems that he will soon realise that this is no easy task. The idea of a quick secret coup has failed. How can a coup be secretly prepared if everyone both in Montenegro and outside it knows that the danger is real?

Besides, it is hard to believe that such a radical move inside the Army of Yugoslavia would not cause a serious split in Montenegro. One should not forget that the cadre of army officers is ethnically mixed (Serbs and Montenegrins) and that according to information from Montenegrin state leadership, majority of officers are not seized by an adventurous disposition. And it is practically impossible to rely on the regular army ranks: they are recruits with just two or three months of training and it would be very surprising if such a composition would be able to overthrow Montenegrin authorities. Volunteers, members of SNP, could be a bigger problem for Montenegrin state, and there are - according to independent sources - about five thousand on the territory of Montenegro. They are armed, impatient and very "eager" for a showdown with "domestic traitors".

But, the main "deterrent element" for threats of a coup d'etat is Montenegrin police. Since January last year when Bulatovic's party tried to destabilise Montenegrin state leadership with rallies and riots, much has changed. Special forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP) which a year and a half ago were of minor proportions (just about one thousand men) have been immensely reinforced. The heads of the police, naturally, do not wish to reveal the exact figure. To the question about the number of policemen in Montenegro, minister of interior Vukasin Maras, enigmatically and briefly answered: "Sufficient to keep peace and order".

One thing is known for sure: they are well armed and trained units which have at their disposal not only automatic weapons but also helicopters, light anti-armoured arms and a large number of combat vehicles. A year ago, a police school for special units started working in Becici, at the Montenegrin seaside, and one generation of special forces has already been recruited from it. Besides, the number of reserve forces of Montenegrin police armed with automatic weapons has lately been significantly increased. The number is also increasing of those who are, running away from military mobilisation, accepting participation in the reserve forces of the police.

Therefore, it is quite certain that in case of an attempted coup Montenegrin authorities would react fiercely. In case of a conflict between the army and the citizens who support Milosevic, it would lead to a - civil war. Nobody could guarantee anything else but blood and victims. It appears that everybody in Montenegro is aware of it and this balance of fear is keeping internal peace in this republic. Perhaps that is the reason why Predrag Bulatovic, vice president of SNP, recently expressed satisfaction that Montenegro had been preserved from "wishes of secessionists, but also crackpots who are dreaming of military administration".

But, this does not mean that general Obradovic will sit on his hands. Certain effects of his presence are already evident: the "hunt" of numerous members of reserve forces who are evading call-up. In this way, by establishing military courts in Montenegro, Obradovic is trying to maintain - if nothing else - pressure on Montenegro. Such tactics can put Montenegrin authorities in an unpleasant situation. Avoiding sharp confrontation with the Army of Yugoslavia, state leadership permits operation of military police. In this way, confidence of citizens that state authorities can protect those who are loyal to them is slowly shaken. This destablises Montenegrin authorities for a long time to come.

Besides, it is clear that the authorities in Podgorica cannot influence operation of the Army of Yugoslavia, although official Montenegro does not wish to directly be confronted with the West. And actions of anti-aircraft defence can cost Montenegro dearly - by new attacks of NATO forces. On Tuesday, 6 April, the Army of Yugoslavia tried to operate against NATO planes which were flying towards Serbia. The reaction was swift: two hours later four missiles hit targets in the vicinity of Podgorica. It happened on the same night when British prime minister Tony Blair in an exclusive interview to Radio-Television Montenegro declared that Montenegro would be spared attacks. Can it be a pure coincidence: action of anti-air-craft defence followed a quarter of an hour after the mentioned interview of British prime minister?

If such operations continue Montenegro will not avoid involvement in the war with NATO, nor therefrom destruction of its territory. This would slowly intensify anti-western disposition in Montenegro. And what will happen next? If after all Milosevic remains in power, and Montenegro in FRY, Djukanovic and his colleagues would be faced with an impossible mission: how to remain in power and think about reforms in the country which is ruled by Milosevic and in which severe anti-Western awareness is domineering?

Drasko DjURANOVIC

(AIM)