New Candidate for Prime Minister

Logic of the Political Crisis

AIM Banja Luka, 18 March, 1999

Five months after the elections, Republika Srpska has got its fourth candidate for prime minister. After Kalinic, Miljus and Petar Djokic, turn has come again of Professor Dr. Mladen Ivanic.

When a year ago, as the candidate of the then president Biljana Plavsic, Ivanic was explaining in vain to groups of deputies his conception of a government of national unity which would besides experts consist of candidates of political parties, and when the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) and the Radicals without much ado rejected his ideas, nobody could have assumed that Ivanic would appear again in the same role at their proposal.

Ivanic's comeback was not received with surprise. On the contrary, the general impression is that Ivanic at this moment is the only political authority among the Serbs who could ensure their reconciliation and establish state structure which will be operational. One should be reminded that Ivanic had established a political reputation a year ago when he returned the mandate to Plavsic after his unsuccessful persuasion of SDS and the Radicals to believe in the logic of his concept. It should not be disregarded that Ivanic does not belong to any party and that he participated in political developments in the capacity of the president of the Serb Intellectual Forum. After the decision of the arbitration tribunal on Brcko and Westendorp's decision to discharge Poplasen from the post, the stands and evaluations of this Forum signed by Ivanic in which he sharply criticised the behavior of the international community, qualifying it as violation of Dayton accords and as being anti-Serb, were received with special esteem.

The political public was shaken by the decision of the Socialists not to nominate Milorad Dodik and support the candidacy of Ivanic. This move took place after consultations with coalition partners from Harmony (Serb National League /SNS/ of Biljana Plavsic and Party of Independent Social Democrats of Milorad Dodik) and it was interpreted as the split of the coalition. However, it is difficult to say with reliability what the destiny of Harmony coalition will be, although it is still the favourite of the international community. If the SNS and the Social Democrats decide to support the patriotic coalition in election of Ivanic, Harmony might survive on the former concept. On the contrary, both the SNS and the Social Democrats will be threatened by internal upheaval and discord with an uncertain outcome, and it is highly improbable that Harmony can survive without the Socialists. They had always been the connective tissue of the Harmony coalition, so without them it loses the sense of its conception. On the other hand, the Socialists also have very good reason to remain in the coalition because in that way they would appease the criticism that they had entered a "red-and-black coialition" by the model of Belgrade.

Of course, the SDS and the Radicals have not approved of Ivanic because of his undoubted political, scientific and moral authority. At this moment he is not just the straw of salvation which can put them back in power, but also the political move with which they "kill two birds". By bringing Ivanic back, the SDS and the Radicals are removing Dodik, who has been their nightmare for a long time, and at the same time they are getting their lost position back. They could not have dreamt a better political solution!

Ivanic still has not publicly stated his stand. It is expected that he will do it after consultations with parliamentary and non-parliamentary parties. Reliable sources claim that his concept of government will not significantly differ from what he offered the deputies a year ago. The only question that arises is in what way Ivanic will respect the demand of the international community that representatives of the Radicals and the SDS cannot be in the government. A warning arrived from the Office of the High Representative of the international community that the government in which the Radicals would take part will not be recognised. It is quite certain that Ivanic will entrust persons who do not belong to any party with key ministries and that there will be no bargaining about these departments with political parties.

In the past few days analysts of local conditions are considering the role of official Belgrade in the denouement of the political crisis in RS and in it they start from the hypothesis that the whole game was planned on Milosevic's sofa. As an argument they state the visits of high officials of the Socialist Party in Belgrade and the fact that it is in Milosevic's interest to divert attention of the domestic and the world public from Kosovo to B&H as well as to re-establish his dominant influence on political developments in RS. Regardless of how probable that influence of Belgrade may seem, it is impossible to disregard the fact that such a denouement of the crisis seemed very logical to the public. It was certainly necessary to find a way out quickly, and at the existing relation of political forces it was very logical for Poplasen and Dodik to leave the political scene, since they were the persons around which the crisis was built up and who had to a significant extent caused it. The decision of the High Representative to acquit Poplasen of his duty was received in public as yet another move in favouring prime minister Dodik who was due to the unreserved support he enjoyed, especially of America, perceived as a puppet political figure. This just reinforced the position of hard-core nationalists and the Socialists have, even without the signal from Belgrade, realised that further backing of Dodik would lead them to political death. Therefore, those who think that with its hasty moves with Poplasen the international community has brought Dodik down are right, just as it had brought down Biljana Plavsic in the past elections with its exaggerated verbal support.

Recomposition of the political scene of RS does not necessarily imply a change in the attitude towards the international community, but it certainly demands modification of its policy towards RS. Talks on this topic should be the first assignement of the new government.

Branko Peric

(AIM)