Idea of New Balkan Confederation

No to the Federation, Yes to the Federation?!

AIM Tirana, 12 March, 1999

In the discussion that took place on 16 February, 1999, at the international seminar titled "Democratic Security and Stability in the Region" organised by the Albanian Institute for International Studies in Tirana, Janusz Bugaiski, one of the best known American analysts for the region of Eastern Europe, presented among other an interesting idea: "... Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro should gather around a regional agreement which would guarantee new borders and which would promote free movement, free trade and all forms of interstate cooperation". This idea is in harmony with the most progressive intellectual contemplations which are gradually emerging in Albania, although it was conceived in America. Unofficial American suggestions about some sort of confederation of the states of Western Balkan is looked upon with benevolence both in Tirana and in Pristina. This confederation would unite Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro around or by a single very liberal administration which would mark a significant step towards peace, stability ansd prosperity in the region.

The first question which arises in such circumstances is the following: while the debacle of one Yugoslav federation is still fresh in the memory, where did the courage to propose another similar variant come from?

We will try to give an answer to this only natural question which is rightfully posed if the problem is observed formally by asking another question: are the Yugoslav federation and the proposed confederation of western Balkan in any way similar?

This is a moment to make a digression - there were essential differences between the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and even Czechoslovakia on the one hand and, for instance, the USA or EU on the other. The former were unions made by force which were subjected to one omni-potent partner who dictated its unlimited will without any legal scruples, while the latter are unions of free states which respect each other and cooperate in political, military, economic, social and cultural sphere with no shadow of fear that anybody might even try to subordinate somebody else. With no doubt, that is how the future confederation of western Balkan is designed.

What are the advantages of such an option from the angle of the supporters of this idea among the Albanians?

First, it would be a soft solution of the greatest problem of painful dismemberment of the Albanian nation in four or five states. All kinds of "surgical" interventions would be avoided which would cause tens thousand victims and after which relations between neighbours in western Balkan would at best be permenently straineds in the postwar period.

Second, the European nightmare about "unchanging borders" would be pacified because Montenegro and Kosovo have their own borders with Serbia. Albania and Macedonia are independent entities, and naturally with internationally recognised borders.

Third, union of the territories inhabited by the Albanians into a single state caused fear in Europe because they are, especially in the north and northeast, mostly Muslim. By badly informed European political analysts this is considered to be a potential breeding-place of "Islamic fundamentalism". By union of Montenegro and Macedonia with this formation, the European fear would diminish, because religious ratio of the population would be improved in favour of the Christians.

Fourth, fear especially of the USA that constant crumbling down of the Balkan into small states significantly increases the danger of confrontation and aggravated management of the situation, would also diminish. A confederation of 84 thousand square kilometres and about 8 million inhabitants would be an administrative whole almost the same as Serbia, Bulgaria or Greece. In such conditions, when the forces become almost the same, regional balance becomes more stable, peace and stability have better guarantees.

Fifth, for reasons which do not depend on it, for more than a decade, Montenegro has been deprived of the Shkoder market. A confederation would re-establish old traditional and natural connections between Shkoder and Podgorica, bringing great economic benefit to both sides. Connections between Montenegro and Serbia have in fact been forced, in view of the comparatively great distance and various geographic obstacles (high mountains) which divide these two countries. And finally, within this confederation, Macedonia would get an exit to the sea with all the immeasurable economic advantages resulting from it. Interethnic relations in Macedonia are at the moment significantly relaxed. However, if such a union of states would be established, chances are big that former tensions would disappear and harmony between the Albanians and Macedonians would become complete.

These are the advantages. But, of course, there are problems too.

Which would be the capital of the confederation, what would be the official language, would national flags be maintained or would there be a new, joint flag, what would the currency be called, how would the army and the police be organised, what will the future parliament be like, how would the central government of the confederation be formed? There are numerous questions which demand reasonable answers. Nevertheless, if the advantages and disadvantages of this possibility were weighed, the definite answer would be very clear:

NO to totalitarian federation, YES to liberal and democratic confederation.

This would be the first significant step towards its membership in the EU.

This is a very attractive model which may prove that a miniature Europe can be created even in the stormy Balkan.

Skender SHKUPI