Crisis in RS

New Political Map

After the latest developments in Republika Srpska, the international community has three choices - to formalise the protectorate, to leave and divide the Serb entity or to consider its democratisation, but true this time

AIM Banja Luka, 6 March, 1999

A single day was sufficient on Friday for the several-year long crisis in RS to reach its climax at the point in which just one thing is clear: it is all over. All possibilities of further survival of RS on the foundations set for it by the international community in summer of the year before last when Biljana Plavsic tried to stage a democratic coup against the authoritarian rule of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS). First Carlos Westendorp relieved Nikola Poplasen of duty on Friday, forestalling president of RS in his threat that he would use his constitutional right and relieve the prime minister of duty. On that same day, in Ugljevik, soldiers of SFOR killed an official who was also - a Radical.

UNIFICATION OF THE SERBS: According to the slogan that it is best to break all the bad news at once, on that same day Westendorp read the decision of the arbuitration tribunal on Brcko according to which this city which is of strategic significance for the Serbs would be a district, in other words that it would formally and legally be taken out of jurisdiction of RS. Having realised that Westendorp was working in favour of Poplasen even by relieving him of duty, Milorad Dodik submitted his resignation on that same evening. Although many are inclined to interpret this resignation with demagogical reasons and to say that the majority in the assembly might reject it or even accept it but that Dodik would continue to rule - things are somewhat different. First of all, even if the resignation is demagogical, Dodik is the first high official of RS in its history who has submitted resignation.

And finally, with this resignation Zivko Radisic has also fallen, and the Serbs have come out to mass protests having managed to gather ten thousand demonstrators in Brcko, which is impossible to do in any city in RS even by the folk singer Jelena Karleusa. And what will be happening now? The frantic several-month long struggle for power in RS has come to the only possible logical ending, which in fact is not a great loss. Everybody is left without power, or more precisely, they have ruined each other and there is nothing left to rule. Besides, the policy of the international community in RS has faced a debacle, because it proved to be complete improvisation, with no real goal or plan. Of course, there is no reason to be sorry about it. The main problem is, however, that every effort to establish RS as a democratic country has been discreditted for a long time, which just shows endless nostalgy of international community for the time of Momcilo Krajisnik.

The international community and "Harmony" coalition have missed a big opportunity by trying to convince the Serbs that to be a democrat in RS means to be in good relations with Westendorp. Strongly supported by everybody in RS who understood democracy as a system of mutual relations, "Harmony" started to squander the credit which could not have lasted long anyway. It managed to corrupt one part of democratic forces which supported it, another part with a short memory became close to the Serb Democratic Party again, and the consistent third part completely disassociated itself and more and more rightfully resignedly keeps repeating that both the former and the latter ones are the same.

NEW POLITICAL MAP: In the situation in which there is nobody to rule in RS, chairman of the assembly Petar Djokic convened an emergency session of the parliament which could completely change the political map of RS. After the decision on Brcko, as anticipated, Dodik has suddenly grown a beard and although he will need some time and effort until it reaches the length of Poplasen's and his stubbornness, the alliance of "Harmony" and deputies from the Federation in the assembly will probably not survive. Hardly anybody can take the risk of remaining in the "Harmony" coalition with CD B&H coalition, so that new political alliances are not at all impossible. In any case, the black Friday in RS is too big an event to leave "Harmony" undisturbed by new internal differences and redefining of relations which might even lead to its definite split.

Therefore the possibility should not be eliminated that Serb deputies who have for the first time in the history of RS become afraid of their own people, might at least for a short time establish a certain level of national unity which would remove the Bosniacs and the Croats from the game. It is true that they would not know what to do with that unity, but it could become the matter of simple political instinct which would at least slightly and for a short while alleviate the crisis. That everything has gone to the dogs is the conclusion for Carlos Westendorp, too, because removal of Poplasen from the office seriously threatens to take away his qualification of the most successful foreign diplomat in B&H. Because stretched between political principles, the Dayton accords, the situation in the field and demands from Washington according to which everything can be done in the whole modern world as long as America wishes it badly enough - Westendorp can do nothing but be the man who will try to reconcile all these contradictions. Of course, there is no Westendorp whose power in this job would not be limited. By relieving Poplasen of his duty, after which he himself does not know what to do, Westendorp has definitely crossed the Rubicon and put the international community in RS before the inevitable redefinition of its policy. According to one of the possibilities for this redefinition, RS will formally become an international protectorate, so at least things will be finally called by their real name.

Another solution for the international community is to abandon RS partly or completely, which would leave the Serbs to get even with each other which they seem to be eager to do for two years already. This is about division of RS, of course, in which the east and the west would try to avoid the destiny of a black hole and in this way we would get two Serb black holes in B&H, which is no solution, but at least everybody could tell that they have done their best. The third solution towards which the international community can direct RS is creation of true democracy, if it is not too late for that. In any case, on Friday, RS has entered a period of culmination of its greatest crisis in which it is not completely without any chance. If only there were someone to grab it.

Zeljko Cvijanovic

(AIM)