Serbia Continues with Rallies of Support

Weakness or Resoluteness of the Regime

Should all the former campaigns against global "anti-Serb" conspiracy be compared, one could say that the never officially admitted anti-Americanism has never reached such proportions like in the rallies currently organised and in regime-controlled media. Some think it is an expression of resoluteness of Milosevic to go to the very end this time, even if it means air-strikes, and others point out that after the escalation of the conflict in Kosovo Washington has proclaimed him the main initiator of all crises in the region, so "by force of muscles" Milosevic is now trying to bargain and acquire again the title of the "factor of peace and stability"...

AIM Podgorica, 8 March, 1999 (By AIM correspondent from Belgrade)

"America has airplanes, bombs and ships. We have Kosovo and Metohija, Serbia and Slobodan Milosevic". This is how on 7 March, member of the Main Board of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) Radovan Pankov described the relation of forces at the rally held in Backa Palanka. Chanting "Serbia, Serbia", "Slobo, Slobo", "We won't give Kosovo" - with flags and placards - the gathered people supported those who addressed them and who were all resolutely saying NO to deployment of foreign troops in the province, especially NATO.

For about ten days already similar to the described scene in Backa Palanka is happening throughout Serbia and Montenegro does not lag far behind either. From rallies held in sports halls or gatherings in houses of culture, representatives of SPS, the Yugoslav left (JUL), Serb Radical Party (SRS) and Montenegrin Socialist National Party (SNP) are sending messages that there is no price that will not be paid to oppose NATO, and that "there is no Serb hand which will sign the surrender of Kosovo". Vice prime minister of the Republic and leader of the Radicals Vojislav Seselj was especially convincing on 27 February in Zemun. "If the Americans attack", he said, "many Serbs will suffer, but there will be no Squiptari left in Kosovo any more".

In order to convince everybody that this is not just another campaign of support to the wise leadership (which takes about thirty minutes of the central daily TV news program every evening), a few days ago a meeting was convened by heads of the state negotiating delegation from Rambouillet, Ratko Markovic and president of Serbia Milan Milutinovic. At the meeting held on 5 March, it was stated that "a demand was made that an agreement be signed although its biggest part (on over 56 pages) had not even been discussed either by the Contact Group or at the talks, and to make the cynism and the fraud even greater, the party of Albanian separatists and terrorist movement were also asked to sign the agreement they themselves had written, which demands that NATO occupy Kosovo, that the agreement be temporary, and that after three years a referendum be organised...".

In brief, allegedly "a rough forgery of the previously agreed part of the text of the political agreement" was put on the table. A day later, in letters to foreign ministers of member states of the Contact Group, Ratko Markovic and Milan Milutinovic demanded that the campaign and manipulations be interrupted and that Albanian representatives be prevented from signing the "nonexistent agreement".

All this was supposed to be the reply of Belgrade to an American initiative according to which representatives of Albanian political parties in Kosovo and the illegal Kosovo Liberation Army (Alb. UCK) should sign the agreement in a single package, i.e. its political part and its military annex, before 15 March when the continuation of the negotiations is scheduled to take place. There is no doubt that Washington has acknowledged Markovic's and Milutinovic's stand, but also that it has no intention to abide by it. However, much more successfully than Serb diplomacy, UCK has managed to push and disable for the time being the strategy and plans of NATO deep into the sticky Balkan mud. Its commanders obviously not only have no intention to sign anything, but they have started a new offensive - new kidnapping and murders of civilians, attacks on the police, explosions in cafes and similar.

Obviously their goal is to porkove sooner of later a response of Serbian armed forces - with "a little luck", to cause another tragedy like the one in Racak - and have missiles launched and airplanes take off from NATO bases. To what extent Kosovo Albanians (UCK) believe that that they are capable of placing the western alliance before an accomplished fact is it seems testified by the failure of former senator and candidate for USA president, Robert Dole, who came in the capacity of an envoy of US state secretary Madeleine Albright, to persuade representatives of Kosovo Albanians to accept the agreement in Skopje on 5 March.

Belgrade has obviously managed to buy time. This gives the sense to gatherings and rallies of support organised by the regime: both in strengthening negotiating positions and the beginning of the election campaign. It was not by mere chance that the Radicals recently observed that state television failed to broadcast the report from one of their gatherings "attended even by ministers", but carried all the others at which the Socialists and Leftists of the lower rank competed in patriotism.

However, the Americans and their western allies are not sitting on their hands either. If it is impossible to successfully exert pressure on Milosevic in Kosovo and concerning Kosovo, there are issues where it is possible. Developments in Bosnian Serb Republic (Republika Srpska) on 5 March unfolded like in CNN short news: High Representative of the international community for Bosnia & Herzegovina Carlos Westendorp first relieved president of RS Radical Nikola Poplasen of duty, as stated for "abusing power, disregarding the will of the people, causing lasting instability..."; head arbitre for Brcko Roberts Owen proclaimed Brcko a self-administered and neutral district under international supervision; prime minister of RS Milorad Dodik, who Poplasen was unsuccessfully trying to remove from office ever since he had been elected, submitted his resignation because of the decision of the arbitration on Brcko; president of the three-member presidency of B&H, Socialist Zivko Radisic, decided not to perform his duties because of that... In the context of all that, it is now clear that by disarming the 311th brigade of the Army of Republika Srpska by SFOR NATO has ensured itself of every possible danger, because nobody can say that there have been just few threats from this side of the Drina, even if only Seselj's are taken into account.

How interconnected all this is, it is hard to tell with certainty, but it is almost certain that the diplomatic space of official Belgrade, which has gradually narrowed down every year, is now approaching its extreme limits. If all the former campaigns against the global "anti-Serb" conspiracy are compared, one could say that the never officially admitted anti-Americanism and generally anti-Western disposition have never reached such proportions. Some see in this resoluteness of Milosevic himself to go to the very end in his inflexibility even if it means air strikes; others however point out that after escalation of the conflict in Kosovo, Washington proclaimed him the main initiator of all crises in the region and now claim that in the background of his actions is his intention to make a bargain again "by force of muscles", in other words to become again the "main factor of peace and stability". After the debacle in Rambouillet and of the American initiative with Kosovo Albanians, arrival of the expert for bargaining with Milosevic - Richard Holbrooke - has been announced.

One thing is certain. In the past decade, this regime has provoked so much international odium that there will be no lack of pressure, blackmail and ultimatums, but also ears that will be deaf even for stands about which he is perfectly right. Milosevic has indeed ruined everything he and his closest followers have touched, so such an outcome is inevitable. The only thing official Belgrade can rely on are differences among great powers, that is the only thing he can gain from. History teaches us, however, that nobody fared well with such calculus.

Philip Schwarm

(AIM)