A Political Panorama of Macedonia
THE MADHOUSE
When there are too many pretenders in one family, both from within as well as from without, who want to play the role of paterfamilias, the effects are predictable - it's a hell of a mess.
AIM Skopje, March 3, 1999
No matter how absurd it may sound and although life in Macedonia is not something to boast about (perhaps not compared to the neighbourhood, but to Europe which Macedonia is just about to join in the opinion of both the old as well as the new Government), it is interesting to follow all that has been happening there these last days. Since everything in this area concerns politics, such is the case with this statement too. It is very unlikely that anyone from outside would be able to understand all that has occurred on the Macedonian political scene in the last thirty days. Everything has happened according to the pattern: "what happened today is much more important than that from yesterday". And what was yesterday "to be or not to be" for the state, nation, population already the next day is marginal in relation to the latest threats which have appeared contrary to the will of the local protagonists. The local media and chroniclers regularly fall victim to this trick. They heighten tensions alarmingly pointing to possible disastrous consequences of the events just to forget the very next day all that they have said or make the same mistake again or be abused by someone (a politician or a party).
For example, a local TV station with a national broadcasting concession every Monday runs a show with its editor-in-chief as a host. The show ends with an interview with personality which is popular at the moment. Last Monday that guest was Branko Crvenkovski. His interview lasted twice as much as earlier ones, while author's "criticalness" of the guest is not worth mentioning. In this same show in which the author kept paying compliments to the former Prime Minister who negatively spoke of students' protests which were led by a young MP (at which slogan like "Gas chambers for Shqipetars" were used), the host remained silent about the fact that in that same show in an interview with that same new parliamentarian dedicated to the first anniversary of those demonstrations, he had insisted on the thesis that he himself was the "brain" behind those events! For, yesterday's friend are today's enemies - or vice versa.
The thesis that the Macedonian political scene is anything but dull, is directly corroborated by the intensity of the latest events. Your head starts spinning from all national and foreign activities of entire new governmental echelons. Literally no day passes without one of the ministers calling a press conference or issuing a statement about one thing or another, or one of them receiving a foreign representative or travelling abroad and upon his return making public about having done something that will have far-reaching consequences.
It seems that according to that same pattern this week's the problem with Taiwan, or better said the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of China (Taiwan), has lost its topicality. Incidentally, its Foreign Minister is on official visit to Macedonia accompanied by Taiwan bankers (before that Macedonia was first assessed by a large delegation of Government experts, while a delegation of private businessmen and their experts is expected next week) with a view to making a final decision on the amount of funds this state will give Macedonia - either as assistance or through direct investments.
Although the opposition and the authorities have been until recently crossing swords over the sale of national interests of Macedonia by the recognition of Taiwan and over the reaction of the People's Republic of China (which vetoed the adoption of the Security Council's Resolution on the extension of UNPROFOR's mandate), unnoticed went even the statement on "Taiwan's billion dollars worth investment in Macedonia", whose author is Vasil Tupurkovski, former member of the last collective head of state in former Yugoslavia, leader of the new Democratic Alternative and Director of the newly created Government's Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Macedonia. Namely, he informed the public that since 1997 he has visited Taipeh four times in private capacity and that each time he had contacts with Taiwan's top state leadership. Earlier, that would in itself be enough for this politician, who is considered to be the most serious candidate for next President of Macedonia, to be publicly crucified.
No one commented on this, same as no comments were heard about his statement issued on the same occasion during his meeting with Taiwan journalists that if his personal activities as well as the activities of his Cabinet prove unsatisfactory he would not run for President at the next elections which are scheduled for this November.
Not much dust was either raised by the fact that by force of Chinese veto UNPREDEP has stopped its monitoring activities on Macedonia's borders with Albania and Kosovo at the time when Milosevic has launched intensive cleansing operations around General Jankovic and Kacanik, which are less than 20 kms away from Skopje. The new opposition is not rubbing the new Government's nose in the refugee situation either. At least not as much as President Gligorov and the previous Government wanted it to by trying to scare the local public with stories about possible destabilization of the situation if Kosovars entered Macedonia and by a "wise" proposal on forming a "humanitarian corridor" by way of which the Kosovo Albanians would be "escorted" to Albania. At the last session of the Macedonian Government when this issue was on the agenda no proposal was given for the resolution of the problem of Kosovo refugees. It was only said that the state can bear up to maximum 20 thousand refugees. Locations at which they would be accepted were not specified, although it is clear that for the time being those leaving Kosovo (300 to 500 people daily) whose number according to official sources is below 6,000, are mostly accommodated with Macedonian Albanians who wait for them at border crossings and take them to their homes.
If UNPREDEP is leaving then the salvation will be NATO soldiers who are literally crowding Macedonia as part of logistic assistance for their deployment in Kosovo and awaiting for the decision on their definite deployment after the second round of negotiations in France where military barracks will replace the Rambouillet castle as it was concluded that Dayton was more efficient, probably because of the accommodation. Because, if you do not have your own army capable of defending national borders, there are Western friends who will not allow the spreading of war onto your territory. These new defenders of the "peace oasis" enter Macedonia every day by various routes. If it is true that one of the first decisions of the new Government was agreement for the deployment of 2,300 NATO troops who would serve as possible extraction troops for the OSCE observers in Kosovo, with a "secret clause" on stationing the same number of members from the Western Alliance, if required. In case the second option is accepted, it will be hard to explain the difference between 4,600 and 6,000 NATO soldiers which will arrive to Macedonia these days.
Though white UNPREDEP choppers could hardly bee seen in the Macedonian sky as they only occasionally had manoeuvres, those "motley" ones - painted in camouflage colours, behave as if they are on home ground. They are sending warning messages flying low over Skopje. Civil Aviation Service informed that they do not even ask for clearance for their planes and do not announce the "low-flying" chopper operations. Their colleagues on the ground use numerous vehicles for which they have signs posted on every traffic light post, as a parallel system of traffic signs.
In the meantime, effects of inter-ethnic fights (between secondary school students) are the talk of the town. The police is guarding the schools, Minister of Education has announced intensified pedagogic activities aimed at avoiding future incidents. "Moral-political education" is organized in schools dedicated to co-habitation, brotherhood and unity, etc. The police treats these fights in a special way. There is an impression that "spontaneity" has too many "parameters" which are aimed at relativizing the coalition of Macedonian and Albanian radicals who are now in the same Government as well as the easing of inter-ethnic tensions.
All in all, there is nothing else left but to ask: what will the new day bring?
AIM Skopje
ISO RUSI