UNPREDEP Is Leaving, But NATO Is Here!

AIM Skopje, 26 February, 1999

Recognition of Taiwan by the Republic of Macedonia and breaking off of relations with the Republic of Macedonia by China got a very concrete result in the past few days. The People's Republic of China used its right to veto in the UN Security Council to oppose prolongation of the mandate of UN peace forces in Macedonia. Although this could have been expected after withdrawal of Chinese ambassador from Skopje, several hours after the news had arrived from New York in the middle of the night (between 25 and 26 February), Macedonian foreign minister Aleksandar Dimitrov issued a statement in which he stressed that he was not surprised but disappointed by this move of Beijing. According to him, China should not have given priority to its own interest over international, especially because the decision referred to such a sensitive question in the region of the Balkan. At the same time, he opened the question of justification of the use of veto in Security Council, especially of abuse of this right for personal interest. On the other hand, in explanation of the decision, Chinese ambassador in the UN stressed that "everything that has a beginning must end", that is that UN mission in Macedonia had achieved its goal and that money allocated for UNPREDEP can be better used for other missions. His stand was indirectly supported by the "traditional opponent" of UNPREDEP, Russian ambassador in the UN Sergei Lavrov, who abstained from voting. The reason he gave for this was that Russian stands were not taken into account when the resolution was elaborated. In fact, the Russians have demanded abolishment of the mission two years ago with the explanation which was this time used by the Chinese ambassador, and it came in handy for them not to have to strain their relations with the Americans who always had to pay for their "abstention".

Although internal reactions will yet come, it can be assumed that the Chinese veto and arguments of ministers will not especially agitate the public which in a way already said adieu to the peace forces when this possibility was announced with unconcealed anger by former Chinese ambassador in Skopje, Shi Juehe. But, there is no doubt that the new government will have its hands full just in order to respond to the attacks of the opposition which will use departure of UNPREDEP as evidence of the immaturity of the decision to recognize Taiwan.

Judging by certain information from New York, the new Macedonian government need not be too concerned about security of its country. Allegedly there is a possibility that forces of UNPREDEP will change their uniforms and insignia and become "border forces" under the auspices of the USA and maybe some other countries who had the interest to continue the mission with a different name. This conception is in fact the additional possibility conceived two years ago at the time when the Russians threatened with the veto (and China supported Macedonia as one of the countries which had recognised the Republic of Macedonia under its constitutional name and not the abbreviation FYROM which is very irritating for domestic public). According to the other possibility, western countries propose that NATO forces which are using Macedonia as a transitional zone towards Kosovo, take the role of UNPREDEP.

In fact, these forces are practically already playing this role by their very presence in the country. The political foundation was in a way announced by NATO Secretary General Javier Solana who declared during his visit to Skopje that NATO would not allow anyone to threaten stability of Macedonia and that the people of Macedonia knew it. And as concerning the people of Macedonia, one can say that they actually believe that NATO would not leave this country in the lurch, especially not now when Macedonia has in a sense drawn the anger of its northern neighbour down upon its head because of the approval that military pressure for resolving the question of Kosovo be exerted from its territory. That same night when news arrived from New York about the Chinese veto, state news agency MIA carried news that on 25 February, at one o'clock after midnight, a train from the port of Salonika carrying heavy military equipment for extractors in Macedonia reached Gevgelija.

This piece of news can serve as an illustration of the atmosphere in Macedonia in connections with NATO forces a literally unknown number of which are arriving every day. It is nowadays impossible to arrive at their exact or even approximate number, not even from diplomats of countries who have their soldiers in extraction forces. All that can be said is that the number of NATO soldiers on the territory of Macedonia is increasing every day. Airplanes are incessantly landing at Skopje airport bringing equipment and forces, and member states are competing which one of them will send more soldiers to Macedonia. Traditionally reserved Germans announced that they were ready to send six thousand soldiers to the region, and immediately after that the British reacted saying that they would send the same number of their soldiers. All things considered, the number of soldiers from these countries will exceed the number of the French who launched the initiative that extraction forces be established. On the other hand, French troops in Macedonia are constructing the runway in Kumanovo (about ten kilometres from the Yugoslav border which will allegedly be used by helicopters. However, according to the assessment of domestic journalsts it is far longer and probably may be used by military airplanes for landing. If the fact is added to this that it is practically impossible to find a vacant room in hotels in the outskirts of Skopje because they are full of "extractors", and that one cannot step out into the street without running into NATO vehicles, it becomes quite clear that Chinese veto cannot have a specific negative effect at least when security of the country is concerned.

Finally, one can say that Macedonian government is not sitting on its hands. After the spectaculat visit to Bulgaria, Macedonian prime minister Ljubco Georgievski, apart from signed agreements which open new economic possibilities for both countries, he also "brought" a considerable quantity of military armament. Bulgaria gave Macedonia as a gift 150 tanks and 150 howitzers worth about three and a half million US dollars!? For Balkan circumstances this is almost unbelievable: one neighbour arming another, moreover for free! After the initial shock, in the middle of Sofia, Macedonian journalists put the "extremely impolite" question of quality of the donated armament, alluding to the trend to transform Macedonia into a dump of obsolete arms. The reply of Macedonian prime minister to this "provocation" is not that important when one knows that the assessment of military experts in Macedonia is positive, especially because the arms are operational. They claim that T-55A and T-55AM-2 and 122 and 150 mm haubitzers donated to Macedonia by Bulgarian government is a valuable gift because army personnel of Macedonia are well acquainted with these arms and because Macedonian army has both the possibility and the know-how to repair these types of arms.

Arming of Macedonian army at this moment seems unimportant, except for the psychological effect, because Macedonia has become too important for NATO because of Kosovo to leave its stability to mere chance. For NATO forces intended for resolution of the question of Kosovo Macedonian territory at this moment is the best transit zone, and for several reasons it is believed that they will take over responsibility for possible consequences of this situation. But, it is necessary first to wait and see what will be the consequences of departure of UNPREDEP.

AIM Skopje

IBRAHIM MEHMETI