Albanians Win with 0:0 in Rambouillet

Unaccomplished Peace or Unfinished War

AIM Tirana, 25 February, 1999

If they had not come out winners from the castle in Rambouillet, Kosovo Albanians certaintly are not the losers, not for the simple reason that the ball is now in the Serb half of the field, but because the unsuccessful part of the conference is not linked to them. In the difficult game of Balkan dominoes, the double six has not remained in the hands of the Albanians. In fact, just the first half of a very difficult game is finished, and although the result is 0:0, the Albanians have won. After accepting the political part of the agreement, turn has come to its military part concerning which Milosevic will not readily make concessions.

Between their referendum and NATO, Kosovo Albanians have pragmatically chosen NATO, hoping that the referendum, although it is not mentioned in the text of the agreement, will some day be impossible to avoid. On the other hand, Milosevic is faced with the choice between NATO soldiers and NATO airplanes which he does not want but will not be able to avoid one of the two.

"This is the best result which could have been achieved in the newly created circumstances. Serbia is isolated from the international community and bears full responsibility for the failure of the agreement", commented Albanian foreign minister Paskal Milo on the principled acceptance of the agreement by Kosovo Albanians in Rambouillet.

Quite unexpectedly, when less than 24 hours were left until the deadline set by the Contact Group, US State Secretary Madeleine Albright demanded in a telephone call that Albanian foreign minister Milo come to Paris together with president of parliamentary foreign policy commission Sabri Godo. Albright demanded from official Tirana to use its influence on "a few members of (Kosovo) Albanian delegation in Rambouillet" who were still resisting signing of the agreement if the right to the referendum on self-determination were not included in the text.

It cannot be precisely judged how strong the influence was of the arrival of the officials from Tirana on the decision reached at the last minute by the delegation of Kosovo Albanians, but it is no secret for anyone any more that representatives of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) have maintained connections with the regime in Tirana and still do. According to a daily from Tirana, Hashim Tachi visited Tirana in June last year, at the time Fatos Nano was still the prime minister. Besides, visits of Demaqi, Qosja, Bukoshi, Agani, Hyseni and Surroi one after the other to the capital of the parent state two or three weeks before the negotiations in Rambouillet have certainly played an imporant role in rapprochement of disunited leaders of Kosovo and unification of their stands. Even if it is true that Tirana has little influence on Rugova and Bukoshi, it is equally certain that the others tend to attentively listen or at least to take into consideration what Albania has to say.

And while 15.00 h were approaching on Tuesday, concern was growing in Tirana. Fear that the two conflicting parties might come out of Rambouillet with equal responsibility was considered as a great defeat for the Albanians. In a statement for the press, prime minister Majko spoke about "an ominous scenario which tends to blame the Albanian delegation for the failure to reach an agreement". In official and journalistic circles a belief was present that such a scenario is the result not only of efforts of Milosevic's delegation but also of statements of Russian officials and Italian foreign minister Dini who had openly accused the Albanian delegation for the unsigned agreement.

Daily Gazeta Shqiptare from Tirana which is financed by Italian capital, sharply criticised Italian foreign minister on Tuesday. This newspaper published the scheme of division in the Contact Group. In a ratio three plus three, the USA, Germany and Great Britain sided with the Albanians, while Russia, France and Italy backed the Serbs. "American sources who wished to remain anonymous claimed that Lamberto Dini openly supported Serbia", wrote Gazeta Shqiptare in the quoted article. Albanian officials do not hide agitation with the latest Italian stands which might reflect on bilateral relations which have had their ups and downs. What is achieved in Rambouillet is commented on in different ways in Tirana. While the result in Rambouillet was received with reserved optimism in the administration, the opposition headed by Berisha considers it a failure.

In a statement of the Albanian government published a few minutes after the end of the talks in Rambouillet, along with the greeting of political agreement it was stressed that "this agreement will be implemented only by mediation of international military and political instruments of NATO and OSCE". President Meidani sent a letter of congratulations in very moderate terms to the delegation of Kosovo Albanians in Rambouillet.

Berisha who had during the conference demanded independence of Kosovo, did not hesitate to declare that "the Contact Group granted the victory to Milosevic". "I have stressed and I still do that independence of Kosovo is the best solution", said Berisha. Berisha demanded that Albanian delegation in Rambouillet be supported and that "crisis of representation of the Albanians" be avoided.

The most prominent conclusion of majority of commentaries of independent analysts in Tirana is that although no success was achieved in Rmbouillet, the bill for the failure was not sent to Pristina but to Belgrade. Of course, it cannot be said that anyone in Tirana is celebrating the victory because it is very diffcult to predict what will happen by 15 March. Especially because a partial agreement or a semi-agreement is no reason for celebration when one keeps in mind that regardless of what was going on in Rambouillet, combats continued in the hills of Kosovo.

The political agreement with no military annex is certainly a useless piece of paper. And it still is not quite clear whether Belgrade has accepted the political agreement.

And while the Kosovo Albanian delegation will use the "additional time" for consultations with the people, among which those with Adem Demaqi are expected to be the most difficult and unpredictable, it was reported in Tirana that Hashim Tachi has gone to Washington. It seems that stubborn Tachi was invited to State Department in order to avoid possible resistance of the armed faction of UCK to signing of the agreement. Although it still is not clear what is the level of authority the Kosovo delegation enjoys among the people of Kosovo and especially among the UCK, it can be assumed that being united for the first time, they mght be given the mandate they demand. In this context American suport is vitally significant, but especially guarantees that NATO would be the one which will ensure implementation of the agreement in the three-year transitional period.

On the other hand, the Serb delegation will not have much to do with Milosevic being the one who makes decisions. Even if some psychological preparations of the Serb people will be necessary, be it facing air strikes or acceptance of NATO troops (disarmament of UCK, of course, as TV Belgrade would put it), it will be done by Milosevic and his propagandist machinery again. After the "yes" of Kosovo Albanians, the initiative is no more in his hands and he might be forced to make the most difficult choice in his political career.

Conditional acceptance of the political agreement by the Albanians and additional time of three weeks put military plans of NATO generals back in the drawers again. However, in the north of the country, regardless of restrained optimism after Rambouillet, fear is felt of the conflict spreading to Albania. Albanian border forces have been on the alert for a fortnight already. At the same time, a campaign of recruting soldiers continues. Newspapers and tv channels report on mines planted by Serbian army in the zone at the border with Albania and Macedonia and concrete blocks blocking the roads. A few days ago, the Yugoslav ambassador invited to come to foreign ministry to be handed a protest note, departed uttering the following sentence: "It seems we will have war".

Whether these three weeks until 15 March will be weeks of reflection which will turn the unaccomplished peace into true peace or weeks of war which will turn the unfinished war into a true war remains to be seen.

AIM Tirana

Remzi LANI