In Expectation of the Decision on Brcko

Long Political Exploitation

The Serbs are fretting, the Croats are silent, the Bosniacs have reduced their demand to "district". Will it be possible to reach any decision in the middle of March?

AIM Banja Luka, 23 February, 1999

Utterly in the shadow of Rambouillet - where destiny of Kosovo and Metohija was decided - the session of the arbitration tribunal for Brcko took place in Vienna. The logic of modern public is despite numerous facts and information, to simplify life and social processes, and that is the reason why Brcko was given second-rate significance both by the Serbs and by the international community. In fact, whatever the decision the arbiter, American lawyer Roberts Owen, may reach, this city will not be taken off the agenda. On the contrary, a severe and long lasting political exploitation shall be the destiny of this, in the past 50 years "somnolent town". Until some future historical recomposition of South Balkan, Brcko will be the Bosporus, the Gibraltar and Taiwan of this region.

This was most directly demonstrated during the session of the arbitration by David Owen, English diplomat who had spend the best years of his career in ex-Yugoslavia. Owen suggested that for "every square mile of Kosovo" given to the Albanians Slobodan Milosevic should be offered that much of the "sacred soil" in Republika Srpska. It would have sounded as somnambulistic petty politicking if it had not been said by David Owen himself, who despite all kinds of criticism that might be addressed to him, is acquainted with our situation better than foreign ministries of all western governments put together. State Department immediately charged Robert Gelbard to answer to the Englishman in The New York Times: resolutely and in known phrases and without going into details.

While the Americans are "reconfirming" Dayton (in accordance with their current interests) and feeling the pulse in Brcko, another European also exceptionally engaged in ex-Yugoslavia, Hans Van den Broek declared that "a protectorate had been introduced in B&H". This is a "heavy allegation" especially when it comes from the commissioner (minister) of the European Union of foreign affairs. The "feeble" spokesman with a fine-sounding name (Palma) was entrusted with the task to deny allegations of the European minister. But the genie of warning has been let out of the lamp.

Serb Unity

Brcko will, therefore, not go back to "ordinary peaceful life", in other words, even if it wanted to, they would not let it. This, of course, does not mean that the decision of the arbitration is not extremely important and far-reaching, primarily for RS. That is why it is only natural that the Serb political elites - ordinarily at daggers drawn to such an extent that it is easier for them to reach an agreement with their former war enemies than among themselves

• are united concerning Brcko. Plavsic and Krajisnik, Dodik and Ivanic, Djokic and Kalinic, Poplasen and Radisic, when Brcko is concerned, all speak the same language. "Parties, coalition and blocks of parties" from RS all signed one and only declaration with a clear demand to the arbitration tribunal in Vienna "that Brcko remain in RS".

The Serbs have offered Roberts Owen a broad spectre of opinions, evidence and constructive proposals along with this demand. "That the military barracks be dislocated from Brcko, that the government of RS be helped to build religious buildings in places where refugees were returning, that a ministry for Brcko be established" (Milorad Dodik). "Conditions have been created for a decision to be made" (Petar Djokic). Among other, Republika "Srpska has created conditions on the territory of the city of Brcko in the economic sense so that it is possible to fully enforce the law on privatization" (Mladen Ivanic). It was also possible to hear a warning that separation of Brcko from RS would lead to "new divisions and instability, not only in B&H but in the whole region and most probably to a new exodus of about one million and three hundred thousand Serbs from the west of Brcko" (Zivko Radisic).

Federation and District

It was also observed that during the Vienna session of the arbitration, the Federation has "slipped" from its firm stand about the "district of Brcko". Even Alija Izetbegovic who had practically until yesterday called the young Bosniac generation to war for the "sacred Bosniac land" started to mention Hong Kong, although along with "the only just solution".

On that basis American lawyer Nikola Kostic, attorney of RS, drew a conclusion that the "Federation is doing its best in order to make Brcko a district, since it is aware that it can never get that region". Of course, it is not the business of an attorney to be unbiased, but Kostic's words sounded as a well balanced estimate.

The stand of the Croats contributes to this, who were silent and did not take sides. They were certainly more agitated by the answer of Carlos Westendorp to the letter of the Association of Bosnian Croats" who had made a demand again for "a special Croat territory" in B&H. Spanish diplomat who knows how difficult it is to earn a monthly salary of forty thousand marks, replied with a customary principled (as befits a protector) phrase that "the third entity would simply be contrary to Dayton" and advised that "interests of the Croats in B&H would be better understood if they were in the spirit of togetherness and not separatism".

The decision on Brcko which will come in March is evidently with greatest impatience and trepidation expected by the Serbs. Since the deadline set in Dayton has been exceeded a long time ago, nobody would be surprised by a new form of postponement which Roberts Owen has already become an expert in. If one should try to make any estimates of developments which involves so many different but strong interests, it would seem logical to set a limit for the present situation to a five-year or a three-year period, and then re-examine and review it. It would be a time out both for us and for the international community.

Petar Reljic

(AIM)