MONTENEGRO AND NEGOTIATIONS IN PARIS

Montenegrin Chair Remains Empty

AIM Podgorica, 8 February, 1999

Montenegro was not invited to negotiations in Paris and it will not be officially represented there. This induced some Montenegrin politicians to remind of the fact that once before also in France, in Versailles in 1981, a decision was made about the destiny of Montenegro without its representatives. The empty chair of until then internationally recognised Montenegro meant annulment of its statehood and its joining a community in which Montenegrins were not recognised as a nation. Will new decisions contrary to the interest of Montenegro be reached in Rambouillet and can it protect itself from them?

"The international community has been informed that every solution conflicting parties reach is acceptable for Montenegro provided it does not affect the position of Montenegro in the Yugoslav state". This was the message from the highest authorities in Podgorica delivered on the eve of the beginning of negotiations. President Djukanovic formed a seven-member expert team headed by member of the Academy Mijat Sukovic "to follow the course and results of negotiations". Its task is to anticipate all possible options which from the aspect of Montenegrin interests may result from the peace conference on Kosovo, in Rambouillet. Apart from Sukovic, members of this multiparty team in which there are also persons who do not belong to any party are the following: Dragan Soc, minister of justice, Prof. Dr. Dragan Vukcevic, professor of Law School in Podgorica, Miodrag Vukovic, advisor of the president of the Republic for constitutional and legal and political affairs and Milan Rocen, advisor of the president of the Republic for foreign policy.

However, it is questionable what the expert team which will be watching the negotiations in Rambouillet from a great distance, will be able to change in the future agreement between the Serbs and Kosovo Albanians, which might greatly determine the destiny of Montenegro? It is clear that many details from Rambouillet will remain a secret for the Montenegrin experts. They will only be able to react subsequently to papers which the two conflicting parties will be signing in France.

When the peace agreement was signed in Dayton, which ended the war in B&H, Montenegro at least formally had its representative in the negotiations. This representative was the then president of the state Momir Bulatovic who indeed did not directly participate in the talks so that it could happen that to this day neither he nor anyone else in Montenegro have found out what Milosevic actually signed (publicly and secretly) in Wright Peterson military base.

Nowadays, in Rambouillet, Montenegro is not present even that much. Montenegrin authorities have not managed to persuade the international community to give them the right to at least be present when future organisation of the Yugoslav federation is decided, and that is exactly what is discusssed near Paris. Ever since the crisis of Kosovo had broken out, Montenegrin leadership kept aloof, but suffered its consequences. Several ten thousand refugees from Kosovo have found refuge in Montenegro. And numerous Montenegrin recruits, dispersed in military barracks around Kosovo have taken part in Milosevic's war. Pre-election promises of the ruling coalition that there would be no more Montenegrin youths in new wars have not been kept. Some of those who had refused to wage war have been taken to military court.

Powerless to protect Montenegrin interests on the eve of negotiations in France, Montenegrin authorities resorted to fine sounding words again: "Should anyone in Rambouillet try to eliminate Montenegrin interest in the future constituting of Yugoslav federation, it is quite realistic to assume that Montengro would very soon take its own chair in New York, at the seat of the United Nations", said Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic. He stressed that Montenegro could not be represented by the government of Momir Bulatovic which Montenegro did not recognise. Djukanovic uttered this immediately after he had returned from Davos where he could have, like during his previous talks in Bonn with the German chancellor, chairman of the European Union, been directly informed from the very source about what the West intends to do with Kosovo, mentioning that Mointenegro was given guarantees that there would be no reorganisation of the federal state to its detriment.

However, will it be that easy to take the chair in the United Nations, should Yugoslav federation be recut in Rambouillet in a manner which Montenegrins will not be able to approve? Montenegrin president did not wish to tire the public by revealing the mechanism by means of which Montenegro will "very quickly" take its own empty seat in New Yrk. He also failed to clarify whether inclination of the international community has already been ensured for such a scenario. In the course of last year, the Assembly of Montenegro had an emergency session because of the situation in Kosovo, and now

• when a denouement of the Kosovo tangle is finally in sight, as well as a possible reconstruction of the federation, Montenegro is in the role of a distant observer.

Although the future destiny of Montenegro will greatly depend on this agreement of the Serbs and Kosovo Albanians, according to pessimistic estimates, in a future community it could have even less legal attributes of a state than planned by the Americans for Kosovo. For example, the federal government will not be entitled to introduce a state of emergency on the territory of Kosovo, which for the time being does not refer to Montenegro. So if reconstruction of the federation does take place to the detriment of Montenegro, all regrets and complaints will be in vain, it is believed in Podgorica.

In the beginning of this decade when Yugoslavia was falling apart, the international community was encouraging Montenegro to take an independent road. Nowadays, however, both Europe and America are in favour of preservation of integrity of FRY, that is, of Montenegro remaining in the federation, regardless of the outcome of the agreement between the Serbs and the Albanians in France. In his interview for independent weekly Monitor, former high Montenegrin and Yugoslav official Marko Orlandic explains that the reason for that is that the international community has no solution for Kosovo without Montenegro in FRY. He, however, underlines that it is "a big question for how much longer the citizens will continue to accept peacefully the position of Montenegro as a hostage in the policy of Serbia and in Kosovo", reproaching the current authorities for serving the international community the story about reliance of Montenegro on Serbia and alleged historical tradition and aspiration of Montenegrins to live in a state union with it. "And this is not at all true. When did Montenegro and Serbia have a joint state? The one created on 1 December 1918! But Montenegrins fought against that creation which existed for less than 23 years", Orlandic warned.

The curtain is slowly going down and the main protagonists are getting what they have fought for: Kosovo Albanians the status of a republic, although it will not officially be called that, Milosevic a few more years of rule. And Montenegro - the status of an observer, with no right to decide about its own fate.

When one knows that, the warning addressed to the international community by Miodrag Vukovic, president of the executive board of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists, may sound slightly unfounded: "The final decision cannot and must not affect the constitutional position of Montenegro"; he added that any other solution would mean "the end of present Yugoslavia".

Branko VOJINIC

(AIM, Podgorica)