Army in B&H - Republika Srpska

UNDER A QUESTION MARK

AIM Banja Luka, 3 February, 1999

When it comes to the future of the army of Bosnia and Herzegovina there is a number of questions and dilemmas to which no positive answer nor definite assessment as to its future can be given. The most frequent dilemma is whether one state can have two armies, and whether a third or perhaps, a united one of B&H is possible, i.e. whether Bosnia and Herzegovina can survive without an army as a demilitarized state.

The Dayton Agreement has made Bosnia such specific state community which, for the time being, has no precedent in the history of political systems and state communities. These unusual specificities are so numerous that it would take much time just to mention and explain all of them. One thing certainly deserves attention - that is the Army. The Dayton Agreement has defined B&H as a state composed of two entities and three constituent nations, with the entities being entitled to their own army and police. At the time of the signing of the Agreement, the situation on the ground was quite different. There were three warring armies and the B&H territory was not legally defined as a state.

As far as the Army is concerned, it should be pointed out that after the establishment of peace and the restructuring of armies from war to peace status, the war components of "HVO" and "B&H Army" were constituted into the Army of the B&H Federation. In order to make this task easier on the federal partners, the authors of the Dayton Agreement have prepared the "Equip and Train Programme" which was originally publicized with much fuss and considered very promising. However, from the very beginning the ideas and wishes were at odds with the practice.

There were no serious problems with the restructuring of VRS (Army of the Republic of Srpska) as the war army switched-over to peacetime functions in accordance with the defined Dayton frameworks and general principles for the organization of peacetime armies all over the world, while respecting our specific circumstances. However, from the very beginning those in the B&H Federation in charge of the implementation of the "Equip and Train Programme" encountered an insurmountable obstacle when the time came for the HVO and the B&H Army to be integrated into one single Federation Army. Mutual distrust and intolerance of the federal partners created many troubles for James Perdue and other experts of the American Agency MPRI which was charged with the realization of the "Equip and Train Programme"in practice.

Naturally, there was no way for this programme to be realized in the Federation without causing disquiet among the Serbian people in the Republic of Srpska. This was quite understandable, considering that one side was getting equipped and armed just to be able to successfully wage a war against the other side in that same state. In view of the current situation one thing is certain: there is no Federation Army. There are only stories in the press and politics about a joint army, but there exists no such armed formation capable of engaging in a combat. Bosniacs often complain about this and point out that they now only have a federation with two armies.

The Americans are satisfied how the things with the formation of the Federation Army are progressing, although the only thing they did so far was appoint a Bosniac Rasim Delic Commander and a Croat General Budimir his Deputy, a Croat Miroslav Prca Joint Defence Minister and a Bosniac Sakib Mahmuljin, his Deputy.

The programme "Equip and Train" still provokes different comments and opinions. For the Republic of Srpska this programme is one-sided and raises a number of dilemmas and creates uncertainty. In the Federation it was accepted without any reluctance, but among experts it raised numerous questions. As far as this programme is concerned, the Army General Rasim Delic points out: "I said again and again that if the programme does not envisage any further cooperation and some political patronage, it in itself doesn't mean a thing. Because, if this is a one-time assistance, if it serves to honour some moral or other American obligation, then we shall only become technologically dependent when it comes to armaments and can find ourselves in an even worse situation than during the war. That is why I said that everything had to be linked with the development of our purpose-specific industry which should switch from "Eastern" to "Western" alternative. In any case, Bosnia and Herzegovina should join "Partnership for Peace" and after that the NATO, for otherwise there is no use in getting armed with armaments produced by Western technologies. We need help to strengthen our purpose-specific industry and, if possible, to become self-reliant".

Vladimir Soljic, former Defence Minister of the Federation has a different opinion of the purpose-specific industry: "The purpose-specific industry is our grave problem and a major task. No solutions have been found yet. In 15 days to one month of normal production all production capacities from Vitez to Konjic could satisfy all the needs and requirements of the Federation Army. In other words, the problem is what would they do after that". As far as the division of the equipment within the "Equip and Train Programme" is concerned, the Croats think that they should get more in order to compensate for their smaller size. However, Rasim Delic has a different opinion: "Gentlemen, we know that the United States have provided the first 100 million USD for the "Equip and Train Programme". But, you also know that the other funds have come from Malaysia, Kuwait and United Emirates. You also know that the aim was to help the Bosniac people in the first place".

Somewhere in between are the stands of the United States which are trying to implement their project for the Army of the B&H Federation, guided exclusively by military laws. For them, the Federation Army is something both the HVO and the B&H Army agreed to while its realization is just a technical problem. However, it is unknown whose opinion did Mr.James Perdue, the American Military Envoy for the Balkans, expressed last year when he said that B&H must have one Defence Ministry and one Army. Uncertain whether it was his personal opinion or the opinion of the US Government, we have to ask what would be the function of that joint B&H Army. Every average soldier knows that basic criteria for planning an army of a country is the assessment of the possibility of foreign aggression on that country. If we take a look at the neighbours of Bosnia and Herzegovina, we have to ask whether there is a real danger of foreign aggression. If, nevertheless, we suppose that such an aggression might occur, then the question is whether all nations would be equally motivated to oppose it. On the other hand, if the foreign aggression on B&H is even theoretically out of question, then it is not clear what would be the purpose of a joint army which members of the constituent nations refuse to join.

As far as the security of B&H is concerned, it would be interesting to mention the reasoning of the American Air Force General Charles Boyd, former Deputy Commander of the American-European Command, published in the "Foreign Affairs" magazine: "The Dayton Agreement can survive and result in a lasting peace only if it focuses on the security of the ethnic groups and not on their integration, as is the case now".

To a person well-versed in the Bosnian situation, this could give a good idea of the future that awaits the Bosnian armies. Bosnia is in no danger from without, but only from within, and for the time being primarily from the Bosniacs who see Bosnia as their sole property, which is unacceptable for two other nations living in it.

What else can be said in conclusion about the future of the B&H Army? One single sentence summarizing the stands of Miroslav Prca, B&H Defence Minister can best illustrate this: the army should be drastically reduced and modernized. His Deputy Sakib Mahmuljin thinks quite the opposite - the army should not be reduced at any cost, but expanded to the limits sustainable by the Federal budget. The Army of the Republic of Srpska is adapting itself to the internal financial possibilities and developing an army that can guarantee the safety of the Serbian people in the Republic of Srpska. Taken together all these stands show that we are still far from any precise answer as to the form of the B&H Army in a foreseeable future. One thing is certain: the future of the B&H Army shall not be decided only by the people in Bosnia, but also by those who have created and are still creating Bosnia.

Ostoja Barasin

(The author is a colonel in the Army of the Republic of Srpska)