Misunderstandings in the Government

Who will Govern the Government!?

AIM Skopje, 1 february, 1999

Although it was normal to expect the new Macedonian coalition government (VMRO-DPMNE, Democratic Alternative - DA and Democratic Party of the Albanians - DPA) to have problems like every other similar government, with distribution of power it had won, nobody expected that these problems would begin so soon, practically at the very beginning. Immediately after the new government had been formed, observers of developments on the domestic scene started speculating that the government was ready for a "minor good old reconstruction". Although everybody is aware that nothing much can be expected in the first hundred days, certain moves of the government draw much attention of the public and provoke sharp criticism, but also significant manoeuvres inside the coalition and within each of the three partners. The fact is becoming more and more evident that this government is formed by three partners whose views of policy and future of Macedonia are not exactly compatible (except for their joint, nowadays already fulfilled wish to overthrow the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM) and take its place and that of its partner). The new government has lived through just half of its first hundred days and the coalition partners have already had a few "close encounters". The main battle is fought over distribution of managers' posts in public enterprises or the ones in which the government has the largest number of shares which puts it in control.

The severest battle was fought over media, more precisely over state television. At first it was promised to the Democratic Alternative which had already prepared a candidate for the post of the director. One of the leading figures in this party, Slobodan Casule had been director of state radio station before SDSM came to power and everybody believed that his return to the head of Macedonian Radio-Television would be just a matter of voting routine in the parliament. However, dissatisfied with the too big a share DA had got in distribution of ministerial posts, members of VMRO launched a campaign to prevent domination of members of DA in the greatest electronic media in Macedonia. They revolted because Macedonian prime minister allocated eight ministerial posts to DA out of the total of 27 (VMRO took 14 for itself) although in the past elections they had won only 14 sets in the parliament, as opposed to 50 won by VMRO-DPMNE. After long haggling, VMRO got the post in public television station which plays an enormous role in creating public opinion in this country. Members of Democratic Alternative had fought persistently but in the end had to give in. As a "consolation", they were promised Nova Makedonija newspaper publishing company which holds the monopoly in printing and especially in distribution of printed media in the country. But, in the last minute VMRO became greedy and decided it did not wish to hand over Nova Makedonija to the Alternative. According to "well-informed sources" (which are often the only source of information in Skopje) this was the decisive moment which could have led to a split in the coalition along the seams and fall of the government.

According to another version, the coalition almost split because numerous and, especially in the provinces, more powerful VMRO, appointed its cadre to most of the posts in local authorities, leaving the candidates of the Democratic Alternative aside. The epilogue of this was a minor rebellion of members of the Alternative who alarmed their headquarters. Their leader, Vasil Tupurkovski, who is nowadays spending most of the time travelling abroad trying to provide the one billion dollars he had promised during the election campaign, made it public that he would reconsider relations within the coalition, but a single meeting between leaders of VMRO and DA put things right, at least for the time being.

A special chapter of this story belongs to the Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) known as the moderate ethnic Albanian party which has remained outside the authorities. Although it did not get involved in the division of power, this party was present in various combinations, so the possibility of its joining the game and changing the course of developments still exists. The significance of this party has suddenly increased in the voting about the increase of the number of ministers in the cabinet, from 19 to 27, which required two thirds of the total number of votes. Since the government coalition does not have such a large number of votes, it promised PDP that it would be able to maintain the managerial posts it had held during its rule with SDSM if it voted for enlargement of Georgievski's cabinet. One of the key posts was that of the deputy director general of state television station. But, almost as soon as the leader of this party felt pleasure because of the easy agreement with the new prime minister (contrary to the tedious and long negotiations with the former partner), his man was replaced from the post. Moreover, almost all men PDP had appointed during the past government's mandate were replaced, which caused great discontent and disappointment among members of this party, but also resoluteness to persist in oppositionist activities and wait for a new opportunity.

Although it seems that the fate of PDP was sealed at least for the next four years, disturbances which are shaking the government coalition hint at new movements in which the role of PDP might gain in significance. As speculated in political lobbies, silent diplomacy of the Democratic Alternative is advocating that room be made for PDP in the government or at least as a friendly party. This unexptected "love" allegedly has a high price which may even be equal to survival of DA in the government!? Faced with the fact that Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA) has more than good cooperation with VMRO and almost none at all with DA, members of the latter are in a way lonely and almost with no influence on the government. Since on the other hand, DA has excellent "hidden" relations with PDP which is in the opposition, it suits it just fine to have at least one ally in the government. It is quite possible that in these calculations DA is starting from the bad experience of the Liberal Party in the last government which was simply thrown out of the coalition. Although it is not known how much that has affected the ultimate outcome, it is a fact that the Liberals had no ally in that government, but especially that it was not the PDP. This fact is also important because parties of ethnic Albanians regardless of their real power, may play a key role in the composition of the government. It is an open secret that none of the parties in Macedonia can count on forming a government without the Albanians. In other words, by including PDP, members of Democratic Alternative wish to ensure their long survival in the government. There is also the possibility that in case DPA which is considered to be a radical party, leaves the government, PDP would take its place and enable the government to survive. For DA it would be extremely convenient because it is assumed that together with the PDP it would be able to control the more powerful VMRO.

It seems that VMRO and DPA, on the other hand, have a different view and that they do not miss the company of PDP at all. For VMRO it is important to have one Albanian party on its side, but especially the one which agrees with it and makes no problems. During negotiations on formation of the new government, Leader of VMRO, Ljubco Georgievski publicly stated that men from PDP were more radical than the "radical" DPA, alluding to their big demands. At the same time he praised DPA for cooperativeness and understanding during bargaining for entering the coalition. Understanding between these two parties still lasts and at least for the time being it seems there is no misunderstanding, which is not the case with the other two Macedonian partners. At the moment these relations are appeased thanks to recognition of Taiwan for which merit goes to Democratic Alternative and which should mean more than a billion dollars of either investments or aid for Macedonia from that country. If this ends up as expected, relations should last, but this will at the same time cause a new round of talks on division of power, probably initiated by DA and probably a new round of disturbances. Now it is clear to everybody that DA of Vasil Tupurkovski aims high and that it will not settle down to serve VMRO. And since PDP does not exactly feel comfortable in the opposition because membership of this party and especially its leadership has been wavering for quite some time, it can be expected that soon there will be a rapprochement with the government which would go through "alternative" channels.

It remains to be seen how this game will be played by VMRO. It is self-understood that VMRO must be careful although it has 50 deputies of its own in the parliament. Without members of the DA, VMRO would depend on the parties of the Albanians because there is no other ethnic Macedonian party with which it could have the necessary 61 votes for the government to survive. If "inimical" SDSM is excluded, parties of ethnic Macedonians which come next by the number of votes are the Liberal Democratic with 4, and the Socialist Party with only one deputy. For the time being it is suitable for the Democratic Alternative to have good relations with VMRO because the agreement on the coalition includes the clause that leader of DA Vasil Tupurkovski will be their joint candidate in presidential elections schedulled to take place in October this year. It is needless to say that Tupurkovski will need voters of PDP if he wants to be sure that the candidate of Social Democrats (who is still unknown) will not outrun him thanks to the voters of PDP which won the majority of votes of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia in past elections.

AIM Skopje

IBRAHIM MEHMETI