Border Crossing between Montenegro and Croatia Opened

Breach of the Blockade

AIM Podgorica, 23 January, 1999

After it had begun returning their foreign currency savings to the citizens, another of the promises given by the victorious "For Better Living" coalition has finally been fulfilled: Debeli brijeg border crossing has finally been opened by agreement between Montenegro and Croatia.

The honour to inform the citizens that Montenegro has lifted the blockade on the border crossing with Croatia, was given to the minister of foreign affairs Branko Perovic: "In compliance with vital interests of Montenegro and based on mutually expressed readiness, the authorities of the Republic of Montenegro and the Republic of Croatia agreed to permanently open the border crossing at Debeli brijeg for passenger and comodity transportation, and as a local border crossing". According to the agreement and judging by the text exclusively published by state daily Pobjeda, treatment of passengers in local border crossing - without passports, only with permits to pass - on Montenegrin side of the border will be given to inhabitants of municipalities of Herceg Novi, Kotor and Tivat, and on the Croatian side of Konavle, Zupa Dubrovacka and Dubrovnik. All the others will have to travel with a visa as established by FR Yugoslavia and Croatia.

With this inter-state agreement, Montenegrin authorities have evaded official Belgrade and obviously with consent of the international community and Zagreb, opened Debeli brijeg - on their own. It was stressed that "establishment of free communication of persons and goods shall not prejudice the final solution of the question of Prevlaka". This provision as well as the whole statement of minister Perovic concerning opening of Debeli brijeg reflected caution of Montenegrin authorities in respect to political opponents whose reactions were yet to come. And it was not necessary to wait for long. On the very next day, Bulatovic's Socialist National Party issued a statement. "Obviously, it is a new channel for smuggling arms, narcotics and cigarettes, for business deals which Montenegrin authorities are famous for all over Europe", it is said in the statement of the SNP.

The sharpness with which it reacted induces one to think that they were caught by surprise in SNP. And that they perhaps fear that Montenegrin authorities have found roundabout ways for communicating with Milosevic - maybe even for tripartite negotiations between Belgrade, Podgorica and Zagreb. At this moment, it is too early to claim with certainty whether president Djukanovic has convinced Milosevic to give a silent consent to lift the blockade at Debeli brijeg by making concessions or whether he has simply skilfully used the chaotic moment in Serbia.

If Slobodan Milosevic has decided to loosen the grip a bit when Montenegrin authorities are concerned, closing his eyes to the fact that in the affair of opening of the border crossing Montenegro has appeared as a state and not as a federal unit, Momir Bulatovic will obviously soon be abandoned. Should that be true, it would mean that Milosevic made the estimate of actual power Socialist National party has at this moment in Montenegro.

On the other hand, it certianly suited Croatia better to have Milosevic's silent consent for its normalisation of relations with Montenegro, which of course does not eliminate the possibility that it had accepted Montenegrin independent decision. After all, the fact that the question of Prevlaka, that is, the question of borders, has not been included in the agreement on opening Debeli brijeg eliminates the responsibility of Croatia for possible accusations that it is offering support to separatism of the Montenegrin state. And Montenegrin authorities, if need arises, may use this argument in defence and say that establishment of borders is the duty and responsibility of the federal state, but that with this agreement, it has not interefred with that.

Minister Perovic himself has not even mentioned the border, but underlined the fact that the latest Security Council Resolution on Prevlaka spoke highly of opening Debeli brijeg for the holidays as a contribution to further normalisation of relations, economic development and stability in the region.

If Montenegrin president Djukanovic had really made up his mind to show Belgrade that he could open the border of his Republic without the consent of the federal administration, that is, Milosevic, it is quite certain that he had previously obtained support of the international community for such a move. The choice of the moment for lifting the blockade at the border with Croatia and secrecy of the preparation of this undertaking which even connoisseurs of Croatian-Montenegrin relations learnt about from journalists, speaks in favour of the assumption that this was an independently taken step. Djukanovic must have relied on the fact that the chaotic situation in Serbia, the war in Kosovo which threatens to further flare up and spread, the danger of NATO strikes, and the federal crisis which is deepening, was the context in which Slobodan Milosevic would not have the force for squaring accounts with Montenegro because it had opened the border crossing.

Indeed, it is a question what Milosevic can do. The possibility of deployment federal police on borders of Montenegro is now out of the question. First, it is clear that in fact there is no such thing as federal police, and that Milosevic would have to engage Serbian police. This would be a risky political move which would be intrerpreted as an attempt to occupy Montenegro. The international community will not allow sending military units to the borders of the smaller member of the federation, and a decision to introduce state of emergency on the territory of FRY can simply be rejected by Montenegro.

Djukanovic and his advisors have an insight into the disposition of the army stationed on Montenegrin territory, just as Milosevic has data on Montenegrin police, the number of its troops, its armament. It is hard to believe that Milosevic would at this moment decide to stir up civil war in Montenegro and duplicate Kosovo which would jeopardise stability of the whole region, and the international community is aware of it.

In which of the two possibilities president Djukanovic found the solution for deblocking his state border with Croatia, it is impossible to tell at this stage. And it is less important than expectations that both in the one and the other he counted on protection of interests of the citizens of Montenegro. For Montenegro the opened crossing at Debeli brijeg - which is a finally materialised promise of the victorious coalition "For Better Living" - will not have a big significance if it had cost Djukanovic further concessions made to Milosevic which could keep the latter in power. And even less if the estimate of Montenegrin authorities on readiness of Milosevic to punish Montenegro and readiness of the international community to protect it was wrong. But, if Montenegrin authorities had measured well, if these two dilemmas are unnecessary, than lifting of the blockade at Debeli brijeg ought to be defined as a realistically founded political gesture.

Beba MARUSIC

(AIM)