1998 Political Panorama of Macedonia

What Lesson Has Macedonia Learnt in 1998?

In comparison with the previous nine years, 1998 was a year of change. Indeed, after all these years in which literally nothing happened, a slight breeze of hope seems to have arisen anticipating that things will move from the standstill. After dissolution of the old system and the old state, Macedonia has entered a new transitional period, experienced two multiparty elections - but in fact hardly anything had changed. Only the latest elections in which no political option seems to have won but the will of the voters to bring about a change, opens the possibility for this state to move in the direction which has a future.

AIM Skopje, 13 January, 1999

The year 1998 will be remembered, at least when Macedonia is concerned, for the results of the third parliamentary elections. These elections have brought about a change. Simply a change. Those who had been in power ever since Macedonia has entered a multiparty system in 1990, were defeated not because their political opponents had offered more or a better political option, but because the population had got tired of giving its votes to them in exchange for their futility. Macedonian electorate simply gathered the courage to say "no" to those who had led it for nine years, and whose rule had been of no avail, and set out on the "adventure" of voting for their replacement by the ones who they are not sure will rule better, but who are expected to bring change. A chance was given to the opposition which trained in the shadow for years to take over and show what it can do.

After 1989 when it became clear that things would never be the same, changes were introduced by reformed communists. Their leader Petar Gosev, on the former federal level, following his colleagues from Slovenia and Croatia, first re-established political integrity of the southern-most SFRY republic which had almost always been dominated by Belgrade. Gosev's reformed communists became aware that it was hopeless, that the time of the "reds" had gone for good, so they tried to save what there was to save in the new age which was coming more from without than from within. At the time, they practically opened two fronts: one against the political patron personified in the then federal leadership dominated by Serbia, and the other, internal one. Events then started developing by inertia and pure luck, especially in view of the dangerous surroundings in which Macedonia was and still is.

The newly established political parties made anti-communism their platform and insisted on changes by all means and in all spheres. Even those who advocated economic changes agreed to become part of reformists of the then Yugoslav prome minister Ante Markovic. Although Gosev, at the time when changes were already in sight, formed his known commission for social reforms of persons who have in a way marked these past nine years, reformed communists lost the first elections. Their biggest investment proved to be Kiro Gligorov. The man who had spent his whole political life in Belgrade, came back to Macedonia thanks to Gosev and his former party. Although there had been certain complications concerning his election in the beginning, he nevertheless became the first president of Macedonia which had slowly but surely set out on its road to independence. It proved that Gligorov was the man who used the stalemate in the first parliament: the opposition (VMRO-DPMNE) won, but it did not have enough votes to form the government. Gligorov managed to impose the "magic formula" - an expert government which was maintained until leftist parties, with the help of the Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP), ensured a sufficient number of votes to form the first party government. It was the time of absolute Gligorov's power who created the image abroad of a wise politician who is capable of ensuring independence for his peace oasis without shedding a single drop of blood. Gligorov was again the one who by investing his own authority and popularity, brought victory to the coalition League for Macedonia in the second parliamentary and the presidential elections. This was the peak of Gligorov and those who had invested in him, because that is when their joint fall began.

Changes brought about by the latest elections can be explained by unmasking of the ruling coalition whose trademark was Gligorov. Their latest term in office, especially the past two years of rule have gone by in their inactivity and empty rhetoric. They spoke about economic reforms, although nothing was actually done. Every laymen was aware that privatisation was the "plunder of the century". Corruptness, bribery and plunder have become the image of the men in power. This was velied by propaganda that the country and its leadership, of course, enjoyed unconcealed inclination of the West: Macedonia was allegedly on the verge of joining NATO and European Union, although it was perfectly clear that it needed years for it. Arguments for this were sought in the truly intensive diplomatic activity. Hardly a day went by without a personage from abroad coming to Skopje or someone from the leadership travelling abroad on an official visit. This replaced the former lamentation about international (non)recognition of the new state, its blockade from both the south and the north.

Internally, climate was created of high interethnic tensions, especially among the Macedonians and Albanians, by a series of serious incidents in which human lives were lost. The shadow of a possible Macedonian-Albanian conflict and the events which had taken place in the former joint state were an ideal recipe for buying time and foreign support to "wise policy" in the "peace oasis".

But, the burden of inactivity, unsolved problems which were shoved under the carpet, did their part. The regime proved to be impotent - it was neither capable of solving any of the daily problems, nor did it have a clear conception about where and why it was headed. Things happened by inertia ruled by daily politics - "we will do this today, and we shall see about tomorrow". Therefore, Macedonian voters in fact did not have a choice: it was clear to them that if the old authorities had remained in power it would have meant sinking into the mire for another four years. Their replacement by the opposition meant at least a slight chance to try to do something better.

The elections were in fact a mass vote of inconfidence to the unquestioned ruling coalition formed of the League of Social Democrats, the Socialist Party and the Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity. All these parties experienced defeat and slowly started on the way which leads to their disappearance from the political scene. If they wish to survive they will have to do much. Some minor parties which served as a decoration in Macedonian multipartism experienced a similar destiny, along with Liberal Democrats who emerged from the fusion of democrats and liberals and who paid the full price for their former participation in power and being only apparently the opposition. Indirectly these elections were also a vote against president Gligorov whose rating has drastically fallen after a series of his frivolous appearances in public and the "love affair" in which he was involved with his much younger advisor for science and culture. The year 1998 is definitely the year of the fall of Gligorov. Not only because he must formally leave the post by the end of the year, but simply because his bluffing policy has become so obvious that it is hard to believe that he will be remembered for anything more than for the unquestionable fact that he was the first president of independent Macedonia and that he has survived an attempt on his life (which will ensure him a place in Guiness' Book of Records).

The year 1998 and election changes will also be remembered for sudden interruption of interethnic tensions on the Macedonian political scene. How long this interruption will last is another thing, but by their election campaign, winning power and entering the coalition in both the parliament and the government, the former "extremist, national" parties of the Macedonians (VMRO-DPMNE) and the Albanians (Democratic Party of ther Albanians) have replaced the former state of war for the time being by open registering problems and solving them through flexible talks in institutions of the system. On the other hand, by winning power, these parties seem to have definitely buried radicalism on ethnic grounds in Macedonian political milieu.

The year 1998 was truly a year of change in relation to the previous nine. Indeed, after years in which literally nothing was actually happening, as if a slight breeze of hope has arisen anticipating that things will move from the standstill.

AIM Skopje

ISO RUSI