Serbia and Montenegro

No More Bargaining

This could be the year of political changes introduced in early federal elections or the year of dissolution of Yugoslavia

AIM Podgorica, 15 January, 1999

(By AIM correspondent from Belgrade)

If the year which has just begun is to be judged by the month of January, 1999 certainly will not be boring, at least on the political scene. Vice prime ministers of Serbia have started a hue and cry on "domestic traitors" without hesitating even to forge in a dilettantish manner an alleged CIA document on aid to Serbian political alternative, media, non-governmental organizations and trade unions. On the other hand, Milosevic is installing new pawns which should secure his power, and that is why even the Serb Revival Movement will finally get a ministerial post or two in the federal government. In the second part of Yugoslavia, Milo Djukanovic is trying to find partners in Serbia in order to be able to set out more offensively in squaring accounts at the top of the federal state.

The way it began one would even think that we have entered the year of political denouement. The course of events, all things considered, will be determined by the situation in Kosovo which at this moment anticipates war more than a political agreement. No matter how the Kosovo tangle will be disentangled, Milosevic will not be the only one who will have to bear responsibility for it, because for some time now he has broadened the family company in power with Radicals of Vojislav Seselj, and now he is announcing a closer relationship with the Serb Revival Movement (SPO) of Vuk Draskovic. Besides, it seems that he has again postponed, at least for some time, serious talks with Montenegrin president on the topic of operation of the federal state. The thread that links the two federal units seems to have reached the point of breaking.

Participation of legitimate representatives of Montenegrin authorities in federal institutions can nowadays be brought down to the Army of Yugoslavia and the National Bank. In the beginning of the year Djukanovic announced that Montenegro expected an equal treatment in the federation and that it demanded one half for its representatives in the najor federal institutions. The New Year meeting of leaders of Montenegrin ruling coalition "For Better Life" and the Serbian non-parliamentary League for Changes (consisting of thirty odd parties and associations including the Democratic Party and the Civic Alliance) was the first official step of Montenegrin authorities towards seeking allies in Serbia for its "policy of positive aggression on the situation in the joint state".

Judging by Djukanovic's words that "Montenegro does not wish to be equal in division of autocratic power with Milosevic", one might conclude that Montenegrin president has given up on possible political compromise with the head of FRY. He openly announced that "Montenegro is seeking a partner in Serbia for recomposing political forces in that republic". Leaders of Montenegrin and Serbian opposition reached an agreement on cooperation which, as announced, should become firmer as early federal elections are approaching, and they expect them in the course of this year.

Although the impression is that the League for Changes, at least at this moment, can hardly be a true support for changes in Serbia, the manner in which in the past few days the regime has swooped down on leaders of this coalition indicates that Serbian authorities are almost panic-stricken. The latest attack is linked to the already mentioned alleged document of the CIA which served as a pretext to the leader of the Yugoslav Left (JUL) Ivan Markovic to list full names of the leaders of the League as foreign mercenaries.

Fear is certainly the result of loss of patience of the international community, primarily the Americans, with Milosevic's rising internal repression and long-lasting irresponsible policy to Kosovo.

The League for Changes gathered almost everything that is left of Serbian opposition. However, it is a fact that it is very heterogeneous and that plenty will have to be done inside this coalition in order to consolidate it and establish its political platform.

Nebojsa Covic (former leader of the Socialist Party of Serbia, excommunicated from this party because he refused to support the election theft two years ago), at the moment coordinator of the League for Changes, does not conceal that plenty remains to be done in internal organization of this heterogneous company. He is nevertheless convinced that the League is the right partner for Montenegrin authorities. In his statement for AIM, Covic says that political partnership should not be judged from the standpoint of representation of the two coalitions in the parliament. He points out that the federal state exists only on paper, because neither of the chambers of the federal assembly operate. On the republican level parliamentary power is reduced to mere raising hands, as he says.

According to his conviction, it is realistic to expect early elections. Covic explains that one federal unit in fact does not participate in functioning of the federal state and that it is entitled to demand elections. Everything else further on may lead only to dissolution of the present Yugoslavia, and vital interest of Montenegro is to remain in the joint state, Covic believes. Coordinator of the League for Changes says that although he thinks that it is realistic to expect early elections in the corse of this year, he does not hide that reaching them will not at all be easy. The situation the country is in demands democratic changes which should be reached in a democratic manner. However, he does not eliminate the other manner, if the democratic one is prevented. According to his opinion, the key issue in the talks of leaders of the two coalitions is that there can be no political bargaining with Milosevic any more.

Nebojsa Covic is counting on political maturity of the citizens. He is convinced that the energy manifested in the 1996-97 protests is still present and that opposition parties need to politically animate it. He stresses that he sees no other way: "If the current politicians are not capable of it, they should withdraw from the scene and give up their place to more capable persons who will be able to pursue the new policy. We are living at the time in which we are falling apart as a state and as a nation and those who are engaged in politics must be aware of that", Covic underlines.

Vesna Vujic

(AIM)