Montenegrin Regime and Serbian Opposition Together in the Elections?
Feeling the Pulse
AIM Podgorica, 11 January 1999
At the initiative of the National Party (NS), in the end of last week in Podgorica, a meeting was held of the leaders of "For Better Life" coalition and representatives of the Serbian opposition block which presents itself with a promising name - League for Changes.
In this way, after announcements which lasted for a few months, the Montenegrin ruling coalition has finally made the first concrete step in search for political forces from Serbia with which it will set out to the promised democratization of FR Yugoslavia. The initiative of the Nationals is motivated by the "attempt to unite democratic forces in FRY", confirmed the president of this party and vice prime minister of Montenegro Novak Kilibarda.
For this preliminary meeting it was planned was to begin work on establishment of a joint platform which would enable Serbian and Montenegrin "democrats and reformists" to run together in federal elections which should, as it is believed in both blocks, be scheduled in the course of this year. But, proverbially cautious Kilibarda made it clear that "squaring accounts between the federal units" should also be discussed with the delegation of the League for Changes. Nevertheless, judging by the initial statements of the participants, the meeting in Podgorica had a favourable result and it created chances for further talks on possible cooperation.
The most courageous in comments of the meeting was Miodrag Vukovic, president of the executive board of the Democratic Party o Socialists (DPS). "Taking into account the constitutional limitations, we are starting active aggression in the federal state", Vukovic said reminding that last year Montenegro "offered only passive resistance to political destruction which is destroying the constitutional system of Yugoslavia". Vukovic's statement that "Serbia must help itself" was welcomed with optimism by Zoran Djindjic. He estimated that 1999 had to be "the year of political rebellion" in which citizens of Serbia would "succeed in eliminating poison" which was "injected ten years ago" by Milosevic. "Our union will give the answer to the question of political alternative, and our first step will be to reach a consensus about what awaits us after changes. People must be ready to back us up and risk even the misery they carry with them", president of the Democratic Party said, obviously prepared to continue the celebration started in June last year, after parliamentary elections in Montenegro. ("We won!").
Other members of the delegation from Belgrade did not conceal conviction that a "year of changes" lay ahead for Serbia. Former prime minister Milan Panic declared that "everybody in Serbia wants this", convinced that changes would "really happen this time".
From the more cautious part of the ruling Montenegrin "camp" arrived mostly patronizing - comforting statements. Such as the opinion of Ranko Krivokapic, vice president of the SDP: "Serbia has a chance for that. It just needs to manifest its good will like Montenegro has done".
Of course, it is not difficult to explain the proclaimed optimism of leaders of the united part of Serbian opposition. The possibility to get for an ally the charismatic Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic, one of the few politicians who has come out of the conflict with Milosevic as a winner, must be convenient for Panic, Djindjic, Obradovic, Covic and their followers. Besides, certain hope for success must be aroused in leaders of the League for Changes by the fact that Milosevic's regime is increasingly nervous now that it is faced with growing political and economic problems. After all, they do not have much of a choice: united they are stronger.
It is much harder to understand the motives which make the leaders of the ruling Montenegrin coalition to, at least publicly, speak of possibilities of joint appearance with Serbian, mostly non-parliamentary opposition. It is clear that with this move Montenegrin authorities have made a significant "pro-Yugoslav" point. Moreover, at a very convenient moment for them - at the height of preparations for "festive" meetings of the followers of the Socialist National Party (SNP) leaders of which additionally raised temperature persistently insisting on "separatism", "anti-Serbdom" and "anti-Yugoslavdom" of the ruling coalition.
But, the very fact that representatives of DPS, NS and SDP had separate talks with the guests from Belgrade reminds that among them there are at least two if not all three views of the future of FRY and prospects for Montenegro in it. It is possible to compare them.
The man with the greatest experience in mostly futile attempts to organize a joint appearance of political competitors from Montenegro and Serbia - Novak Kilibarda - stated after the meeting in "Gorica" Villa that "renaissance is in sight of democratic forces in Serbia which will introduce order in relations of federal units, especially the relation of Montenegro with the federation". Kilibarda's expectation of "renaissance" did not prevent his coalition partner Zarko Rakcevic from reminding that "SDP has a different view of state relations between Serbia and Montenegro". It turned out that Rakcevic used the meeting to inform guests from Belgrade about his party project for turning the present Serbian and Montenegrin community into a confederation, and finally concluded that after all "we have a sufficient number of things in common, so let us leave differences about the state and legal status between us".
"We can influence the situation in the environment only as much as we really can", concluded Miodrag Vukovic in a conciliatory manner, trying to define Montenegrin wishes and possibilities in a single sentence.
The second serious question which imposes itself is actual readiness of Montenegrin authorities to seek future partners in the League the power of which is just a conjecture. Many tend to believe that Djukanovic is too pragmatic a politician to risk one of his most significant advantages - the image of an "ever-lasting winner". On the other hand, Djukanovic still has not completely dispersed fear (or hope) among his followers that a compromise with Milosevic, and therefrom "cementing" of their power, is one of the possible ways of solving the current Yugoslav crisis.
It is true that the president of Montenegro made a step further last week in disassociating himself from the regime in Dedinje by declaring that Montenegro "does not wish to be equal in division of autocratic power with Milosevic because that would be of no avail to it, but it does wish to have fifty per cent share in Yugoslavia". At the same time, members of the delegation of the League for Changes claim that Djukanovic personally informed them that DPS had rejected Milosevic's proposition that the coalition take over leading posts in the federal government and that in return Bulatovic's SNP remain part of the Montenegrin delegation in the Chamber of Republics.
In any case, the first step in creation of a broad resistance to Milosevic - Markovic - Seselj regime has been made in Podgorica. It may not be big, but it was sufficient to cause sharp reactions of the ruling oligarchy in Belgrade. As usual, Vojislav Seselj was the quickest. "Djukanovic is trying to rely on the worst Serbian traitors in Serbia. I think that his political destiny will be identical to the destiny of Serbian traitors with whom he wishes to make an alliance". It is interesting that Vuk Draskovic, president of the Serb Revival Movement (SPO) went along the same lines.
Although nobody from where real power in Serbia and FRY lies has spoken yet about the possibility of Montenegrin "reformism" moving into Serbia, it is evident that things have started to move. What the ultimate effects of the announced cooperation will be it is hard to tell. Only elections can show the real reach of the joint appearance of Montenegrin authorities and Serbian opposition. And as things are now, neither ones nor the other are the one who decides about scheduling of elections.
Zoran RADULOVIC
/AIM Podgorica/