A Vicious Circle

MONTENEGRO AND THE KOSOVO NEGOTIATIONS

AIM Podgorica, December 22, 1998

TXT: "Any solution for Kosovo which does not infringe upon the interests of Montenegro within the Yugoslav union will be acceptable for Montenegro", said Milo Djukanovic at his most recent press conference. This was nothing new coming from the Montenegrin President: long ago the Montenegrin top leadership has started issuing such and similar statements.

In this case Djukanovic's statement is even more important as it was released on the same day the Assistant US Secretary of State, Harold Coe, came to Podgorica. The American envoy publicly commended the behaviour of Montenegrin authorities in the previous year. "Compared to Serbia which is in total darkness, the fire of democracy is not ablaze in Montenegro, but the candle has been lit and for that Montenegro deserves the international support", said Coe, Madeleine Albright's Assistant for human rights.

The visit of the American official to Podgorica attracted the attention of local analysts primarily because of the fact that Coe and Djukanovic "expressed agreement regarding the democratic resolution of the Kosovo crisis".

It is still uncertain what will the mentioned formulation mean in practice. Until now the official circles in Podgorica kept silent regarding Kosovo as if it was a political problem of no concern for them and not an issue which has a direct bearing on the future position of Montenegro within the federal state.

In contrast to Dayton where Montenegro, at least formally, had its representative (the then Montenegrin President Bulatovic), today, when the United States and the European Union are trying to stop yet another Balkan conflict, the one in Kosovo, Podgorica is following the negotiations from afar.

Analysts are warning that now, with the resolution of the Kosovo issue, Montenegro is gradually "becoming cemented" in the federal order which, on the other hand, Milosevic has been re-shaping for years, both institutionally and non-institutionally, without the consent of Montenegro. "The latest proposal of the Agreement on Kosovo, which is known to the public, in fact changes the relations both in Serbia, as well as at the federal level since the provisions of the 1992 Constitutional Treaty between Serbia and Montenegro from have been radically altered", warns Dr. Nebojsa Vucinic, professor of international law at the Podgorica Faculty of Law. "Practically, the 1992 Constitution and relations within the federation are now only fiction on paper. Therefore, Montenegro must urgently insist on the protection of its own interests on new basis, especially concerning the defence and monetary system", thinks Vucinic.

However, Montenegro has not yet declared its position concerning specific solutions. Namely, the Montenegrin authorities are informed about dramatic Kosovo and Belgrade meetings chaired by "an alien" - Ambassador Hill, primarily through the media and by diplomatic envoys which occasionally visit Podgorica. True, the American envoy for Kosovo came directly from the Paris Meeting of the Contact Group to Podgorica, first to Djukanovic, and only then to Belgrade. As the public was informed, Hill reassured Djukanovic that "in the course of Kosovo negotiations care will be taken in order to ensure that the final solution is in no way detrimental to the interests of Montenegro and its position within the federation".

Does this indicate a more active future involvement of Montenegro in the attempt to "discipline" Milosevic? Possibly, especially after the latest message Madeleine Albright, the US Secretary of State, sent to the Montenegrin President Djukanovic. "We expect both from you as well as all those who support democracy, to take Yugoslavia along the way which will enable its integration in the international community", said Madeleine Albright's letter addressed to the Montenegrin President.

Obviously, both the US and the international community are seriously counting with the possibility of Djukanovic to become a messenger of changes in the federal state. However, this will not solve the main enigma: what will be the position of Montenegro after the "integration" of Kosovo into the federal legal-political system?

Because, if the future destiny of Montenegro will greatly depend on the pending agreement between Milosevic and Rugova, then, according to a pessimistic scenario, in some future union Montenegro could have even less state-legal attributes than the Americans have envisaged for Kosovo. A Western diplomat involved in the games around Kosovo commented the passive Montenegrin role with the following proverb: "Nothing seek, nothing find". To seek nothing was the decision of the local authorities who have chosen the role of observers shrinking from direct involvement in negotiations. On the other hand, the Albanian side wants for Kosovo the status equal to that of Montenegro, but only as a transitional solution towards its objective - independent Kosovo. That is why Dr. Nebojsa Vucinic, professor on international law at the Podgorica Faculty of Law and member of the Montenegrin negotiating team for Prevlaka, thinks that it is high time for Montenegro to "determine the minimum protection of its interests". "The Holbrooke-Milosevic Agreement has de facto changed the federal constitutional system, against the will of Montenegro and without consulting it", thinks Vucinic emphasizing that, therefore, Montenegro must not passively wait for the resolution of the Kosovo crisis.

What has been most disquieting in recent days was not the fact that, either voluntarily or forcibly, the Montenegrin authorities have abstained from the Kosovo negotiations, but rather the impression that the authorities were ready to agree to all consequences of decisions made by Milosevic and his regime in Belgrade contrary to their wishes and with the American mediation. Until now the official Podgorica endured the role of a passive observer with feigned calmness; it was ambiguous in its stand regarding possible armed conflict with NATO and did not dare take the risk of rejecting the "war tax" imposed by Bulatovic's federal government, which Montenegro doesn't recognize.

That is why the mentioned Hill's visit to Podgorica can be interpreted as part of American efforts to ensure the best possible protection for the reform position of Montenegro within FRY which doesn't necessarily imply the support for its secession from Yugoslavia. Because, if Montenegro succeeds to stabilise its democratic processes despite pressures of the Milosevic's regime, that would be a good sign for Serbia also, as well as for many other states in the region.

"All eyes are turned to Montenegro, as for Western countries, Montenegro is a sort of test whether democracy is at all possible in these parts. Still, it is clear to all of them that Montenegro cannot fight that struggle for others, and it is not our aim to have Montenegro used as a testing ground" - points out Dusan Janjic, Director of the Belgrade Forum for Ethnic Relations in his statement for TV Montenegro. "If Montenegro succeeds, then the space for the democratization of Serbia, as well as other Balkan countries, will be much wider as it would no longer be possible for Milosevic to, for example, incite conflicts outside his borders as he would have to face the citizens of Serbia" noted Dr.Janjic.

As it turned out, until now Montenegro did not have enough strength to play its role, and will never succeed if it doesn't find a strong partner in a part of the Serbian opposition. For the time being it did not. And while waiting for such a partner Montenegro could be seriously destabilised both within and from Belgrade. The latest moves of Milosevic's regime indicate that he is getting ready to topple the current Montenegrin regime. Rallies of Milosevic's political allies in Montenegro announced for the coming Christmas holidays could easily serve that purpose. In that case not only would Montenegro be unable to play any role in the resolution of the Kosovo crisis, but it would also lose the position it enjoyed according to the Constitution and political agreements from 1992, although they have been essentially modified in practice at the expense of its equitable position.

Branko VOJICIC

/AIM PODGORICA/