REJECTING HILL'S PLAN WHILE WAITING FOR SPRING

(AIM's Podgorica correspondent reporting from Pristina)

AIM Podgorica, December 9, 1998

The Albanian representatives were mostly excluded from all negotiations of great powers to date and their contacts with Belgrade regarding Kosovo issue. They were isolated when it came to resolving the situation on the ground and some other fundamental problems in the settlement of which the Albanians obviously could not be side-stepped. For example, they were ignored in discussions on practical issues regarding cease-fire, permanent observers, i.e. verifiers, and even finding adequate modalities for the introduction of a provisional three-year or five-year solution. True, different impression could be gained from diplomatic contacts, which were rather frequent at given times. But, it seems that the Albanian side could be also blamed for such a situation since, because of its unimaginativeness, it was more interested in creating a favourable impression in the public than in facing the Kosovo crisis.

Heated discussions over the implementation of the cease-fire, which the public knew little about, were followed by a clear and open rejection of the latest American proposal for the provisional solution of the Kosovo crisis. The Albanian Negotiating Group rejected the proposal which represented a first serious and direct open confrontation of the great powers with the Albanian side over the Kosovo crisis. As it is common knowledge, one August day Ibrahim Rugova introduced members of this group with much fuss to numerous foreign diplomats, only few hours after the KLA announced that it had appointed Adem Demaci, its chief civil representative. That is why the rejection of the American proposal by Negotiating Group, which has Rugova behind it, and which mostly agreed with the demands and proposals of great powers, came as a surprise. Such open-mindedness could have been rather expected from the rival Albanian political block which claims to be close to the KLA and is regarded as such.

However, it seems that there are some new important developments on the Albanian political scene regarding the assessment of the current situation and prospects for the resolution of the Albanian and Kosovo problem in the negotiating process. All Albanian forces have rejected the latest American proposal in unison, which was until recently unimaginable. True, all of them have now yet said it openly, but all have made that quite clear. Is this a sign of possible rapprochement of stands between major Albanian political forces regarding the minimum programme which is the Albanian and Kosovo interest? Interestingly enough, the official statement of the Albanian Negotiating Group rejecting the latest American proposal also included the following formulation: "The Negotiating Group finds it necessary to reiterate that negotiating positions and general interests of Kosovo have been jeopardised by the lack of necessary unity of the Albanian political forces".

Just a few hours before this statement on the rejection of the latest American proposal was released, Fehmi Agani, coordinator for the Negotiating Group, met briefly with Adem Demaci, the KLA representative. According to Demaci that meeting was brief and very meaningful. In a press release issued by his office, Demaci said that he would not comment on the American proposal as it was still under careful consideration. He said that the public would be informed of the KLA stand in due time. After the meeting, Agani also said that that he had informed Demaci on the stand of the Negotiating Group regarding the latest version of the American Plan and that Demaci agreed with him.

In contrast to the earlier proposal, the recently offered solution represents a large step backwards since according to it Kosovo remains under Serbian jurisdiction and it de facto legalizes all that Serbia has done in Kosovo in the past decade. This plan does not give even a half of the authority Kosovo enjoyed according to the 1974 Constitution of former Yugoslavia. In short, that is the essence of the objections raised in the last two or three days and basic motives of support for its rejection. To these, mostly well-known objections, the Albanian side added the international-legal aspect of the problem. Namely, the explanation said that by rejecting this Plan the Negotiating Group has at the same time rejected the American attempts at legalizing the Serbian occupation of Kosovo.

"The rejection of the American proposal should not be interpreted as halting of the negotiations", said Fehmi Agani and announced the preparation of an integral Albanian proposal of the solution. According to him, that proposal would be prepared by the broadest possible group of the Kosovo military-political forces which express the stands of the Albanian population. It is common knowledge that so far only the Americans and Belgrade have offered proposals of this kind. Several weeks ago, the Albanian side has submitted a ten-point draft proposal with basic stands which boils down to a demand that the provisional solution lies in providing such a status for Kosovo that would make it equal to Serbia and Montenegro within the present Yugoslav federation.

The lack of a comprehensive solution has been viewed here as an oversight which was justified by a desire to leave as much maneuvering space as possible for indirect negotiations. It is considered that the Americans have taken advantage of that fact in their double dealings with Belgrade and Pristina, and even with Europe. That is why, probably for the first time, they were openly criticized by the Albanian representatives. Fehmi Agani said that this proposal was contrary to the official stands of the American officials, including that of State Secretary. He expressed his surprise that the States openly condemned Serbia as anti-democratic and authoritarian state and at the same time were offering Albanians a plan according to which they would stay under the authority of such state.

The agreement of the Albanian representatives in rejecting the American plan mostly reveals difficulties and ambiguities with which foreign factors are faced in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. They have come to Kosovo without a set of defined cease-fire rules. There is an impression that with the approaching spring their anxiety is growing. If NATO and great powers persist in their decision not to allow the renewal of armed conflicts, they would have no other alternative but either to secure a more lasting truce or to rephrase their existing proposal: take it or leave it. However, as things stand now, both options would have to be imposed and probably only by resorting to force. Or perhaps they are considering the possibility of withdrawing altogether.

The crisis in the negotiating process has come after two months of indirect negotiations which produced no tangible results. It is well known that nothing was achieved within time limits announced in late October. After the November deadline for reaching the Serbian - Albanian agreement was moved for late December, there is now talk of January and even beginning of February. During his last visit to Belgrade, the American negotiator Hill said that negotiations have not yet reached the stage at which the proposed solution could be formulated: take it or leave it. But, everyone would like to know what will happen in spring. It seems that a race against time has started.

Accidentally or not, the postponement of the formal beginning of the operation of the OSCE Verification Mission has coincided with the mentioned dalays. First late November was mentioned, then December and now the start is forecast, although not with much certainty, for the first half of January. Its chief William Walker takes advantage of every public address to reiterate that the only reason is nothing else but the bureaucratic inertia of the huge organisation such as the OSCE. Until now, some 400 - 500 monitors have arrived. It is unofficially estimated that best chances are that another thousand will come. Chiefs of missions do not hide that their first duty is to ensure the security of unarmed monitors. According to available information they did not have any serious security problems, but that doesn't mean that it will be so if the Kosovo situation starts going downhill.

Such fears are not totally ungrounded. With some 15 killed Albanians and seven wounded Serbs and Albanians in a very short time at the beginning of this month, the daily quota of violence recorded during the war has been reached. These incidents occurred at different places and are not mutually linked or conditioned. But, all of them, same as the earlier ones, since late October till today, have almost classical pattern of assassinations or attacks from ambush. This doesn't have to be a sign of the resumption of war operations, but can probably be interpreted as a proof that the war is continuing, in a different way, even during formal truce.

The latest bloodshed is only a tip of the iceberg of the Kosovo reality. Many other things show that the present situation is untenable. The cease-fire is not based on pre-defined rules of behaviour and is maintained only by threats and pressures from outside. Everything else that is important for the assessment of the current situation is visible to the naked eye: movement of military forces, deployment of forces for war operations, arms build-up, entrenching, critical humanitarian situation, strict road control, restricted freedom of movement of people and goods, numerous arrests and torture of Albanians and even more numerous trials. The Albanians practically do not use intercity transportation. They use local roads and paths and thus risk being arrested or killed as KLA members. Under such conditions, the black market is the only possible form of trade.

According to some Albanian sources, in this year alone about 800 Albanians have been convicted by the District Court in Pec or are waiting to be tried. In Kosovska Mitrovica, some 190 Albanians are under investigation. In Kosovo there are District Courts in Prizren, Pristina and Gnjilane and all are extremely "busy". The Albanian, Serbian and international humanitarian organisations mention several hundreds of kidnapped, lost and missing persons. Neither their relatives nor the public know anything about their destiny, but those who do or supposed to know are silent on that matter.

Fehim REXHEPI