Albania: For the Eighth Time At the Polls

AIM Tirana, 21 November, 1998

On Sunday, the Albanians will vote for the eighth time in the past eight years of the pluralist system, this time for the new Constitution of the country. Voting has become a ritual: four times general elections, twice local and two referendums for the Constitution, is the Albanian record which could not be beaten by any other country of the East.

Ever since 20 October, when the parliament dominated by the Socialists in power, in the absence of the opposition, adopted the draft Constitution which the electorate will vote on on Sunday, a sharp and nervous campaign for the referendum was waged. In fact, it was rather a war of the nerves between the authorities and the opposition. Such a climate was convenient for dramatic episodes with plenty of weapons, blocked roads and waterworks.

Albania is the only ex-communist country, apart from Belorussia, which has not managed to pass a new post-communist Constitution. After abolishment of the Stalinist 1976 Constitution, power in Albania is executed pursuant a package of constitutional laws adopted in 1991. This legislative code mostly regulates relations among the three forms of power and their duties and obligations. The constitutional package of laws, however, could not take place of a real constitution because it is incomplete, with serious deficiencies, founded on control of state institutions and the state itself by a single person.

In fact, there have never been big differences between constitutional platforms of major parties. On the contrary, concerning main issues, harmony was perfect. With the exception of the Party of Legality which has a purely monarchist platform but enjoys a negligible support of the voters, all the others are in favour of a republican regime. With the exception of some parties of marginal influence among Albanian voters, open inclination towards parliamentary republic is evident. Concerning other issues which refer to organization of the system of justice, along with decentralisation of power or local self-administration, different political forces either have no clear platform or differences among them are negligible.

However, what prevented adoption of the constitution in post-communist Albania was the severe political climate which has never permitted conducting of a normal constitutional debate. This is best illustrated by the history of efforts aimed at adoption of the constitution which have begun in 1991 and which have all failed.

Indeed, four years ago, in November 1994, the Albanians voted on the first draft constitution proposed by the Democratic Party. Having failed to win two-third majority necessary for adoption of the Constitution in the parliament, Berisha decided to disregard the parliamentary consensus and chose the road of national consensus, that is, a referendum. The precedent of the constitutional referendum, although not prescribed by the Albanian legislature was not the result of a political consensus, but as an expression of populist policy pursued by Berisha.

However, contrary to what he had expected, Berisha lost because of his very populism. The proposed draft opposed by the block of 17 opposition parties was rejected by more than half of the voters. After that, history of the constitution can be compared with the Sisyphus' stone which rolls unexpectedly downhill every time it is rolled up. After the defeat at the referendum, as compensation, authoritative power of Berisha was reinforced and perhaps that is one of the reasons for preparation of the great forgery of the elections on 26 May, 1996.

The efforts to create and adopt the latest draft constitution, four years later, took place in the same climate of the lack of political dialogue. Democratic Party of Berisha and its allies, boycotted the process from the beginning to end, refusing to participate in the work of the parliamentary commission. Ironically, but perhaps not only because of irony of destiny, at the very moment a compromising formula was reached, the arrest of six former state officials accused of crimes committed before and during last year's crisis, caused their new boycot and total refusal of dialogue.

On the other hand, parliamentary majority, in fear of the increasing indifference of the voters which could cause a low turnout, amended the law on referendum at a minute to twelve. Pursuant the new law, the result will not be affected by the turnout. While four years ago, for the referendum to succeed, 50 per cent of registered voters had to turn up at the polls, nowadays the number of voters has absolutely no significance, only the number of those who vote in favour. This has caused sharp reactions of the opposition which appealed on the voters to boycott the referendum.

"On Sunday, the Albanians should engage themselves with their family preoccupations and not vote for the passport of the current government", said Berisha.

In the country which lacks public opinion polls before the elections, it is hard to predict both the turnout and the possible result. Generally, the Albanians turn out at the polls in great numbers, but this time fear prevails that this might not happen. This is linked not so much to the fact that the opposition has set its mind on boycott, as to the fact that the indecisive and the discontented might choose to do the same: not go to the polls. It seems that on Sunday there will be more struggle with the electoral register than with the ballot boxes.

The result which will come out of the boxes is not expected to be a surprise, because it is believed that the new constitution will be adopted, especially because the Democrats will not vote, but if the turnout will be below 50 per cent, it will, of course, be possible to say that the first constitution of postcommunist Albania will be adopted legally, but not morally.

Political developments in the country will greatly depend on the fact what the turnout and the result of the voting will be next week. If the constitution is adopted with more than 50 per cent of the votes, it will be a signal for "rebellion in the palace" against Berisha. This means that the defeat will be used as a permit for moving him or even perhaps for completely removing of the leader of the opposition who has lost support of the West.

However, if a small number of citizens comes to the polls, or if the result will not be favourable for the ruling coalition, Berisha will become bolder and the government will be forced to schedule new elections. It is hard to believe that Majko's cabinet will survive. In this sense, Sunday will be an electoral test. This is the reason why hundreds of OSCE observers will come to Albania for the third time.

Mustafa NANO