Sloga (Harmony) after Elections

Replacements and Discharges

AIM Banja Luka, 12 November, 1998

Leaders of parties which, before the past parliamentary elections, established the coalition called Sloga (Harmony - Socialists, Serb National Union of Biljana Plavsic, and Social Democrats of Milorad Dodik) were convinced that they would win absolute majority or take at least half of the seats in the assembly.

The sum of the total of 28 seats was a fiasco concealed by laying too much stress on the failure of nationalistic parties in relation to earlier results. Only Social Democrats could express moderate satisfaction, since they have doubled the number of deputies. The least satisfied with the election results was the Serb National Union (SNS) of Biljana Plavsic. Contrary to all expectations SNS won twice less than in the local elections and lost the post of the president of the Republic it had been certain it would win.

Such fiasco of the party of the president of the Republic, that is, of the political favourite in all the estimates, caused immediate turmoil in the party and the cabinet of prime minister Dodik. Two ministers of key departments - internal affairs and justice - were discharged first, and then Ostoja Knezevic, vice president of the party and deputy in the assembly, was expelled from the party.

President Plavsic and prominent members of the SNS have pointed out to bad results and mistakes in the said ministries on several occasions. Curbing crime announced by the president ever since her inauguration, remained an enigma even for the government of prime minister Dodik, so that changes in these departments after the elections were only expected.

Minister Stankovic is the cadre of the Socialists, but the main pressure for his discharge was exerted by the SNS, the party of his assistant Ljubisa Savic Mauzer who had been seriously conflicted with Stankovic ever since the murder of Srdjan Knezevic in Pale. The Socialists were not satisfied with Stankovic's despotism either, since to the attempts of the party to influence the work of the ministry of internal affairs he responded by the thesis that the police was depoliticised and that his job was to make it a professional service.

Petko Cancar came to the post of the minister of justice as a personal choice of Biljana Plavsic whose favour he had won as the judge of the supreme court who rejected the appeal of Gojko Klickovic's government against her decision to dissolve the national assembly. Contrary to Stankovic who made certain moves and achieved results he defended with arguments, after a few vertical changes of the cadre in the judiciary, Cancar mostly preserved the existing situation. His term in office was marked by lodging of a criminal appeal against a judge of the district court in Bijeljina who had released from custody a local businessman from Zvornik arrested by Stankovic's police, on charges for violation of the law and receiving bribe. The appeal of the minister against a judge caused bitterness of the judiciary and was interpreted as a nervous and rash move made under influence of politics.

Stankovic said good-bye to the police, but was not transferred to a new post, while Cancar was nominated judge of the Constitutional Court of Republika Srpska. There are no indications from the Socialist Party about possible engagement of Stankovic, but news leaked in public that the party leadership was divided in evaluation of his work. A part of the main board believes that Stankovic has carried out well the most difficult part of the job and that great injustice was inflicted on him by Biljana Plavsic and SNS.

Pre-electoion consultations inside Harmony coalition and taken manoeuvring positions have additionally shaken Harmony. Vice presiedent of SNS and member of the negotiating team of Harmony, Ostoja Knezevic, was expelled from the party after interruption of assembly session with the explanation that he had seriously violated party discipline. In the capacity of assembly deputy, Knezevic refused to vote in favour of Harmony's proposals on the agenda and interruption of the session, revealing in this way discord in the coalition concerning strategy of division of parliamentary and executive power.

Knezevic explained that his party had punished him for his firm stand that authorities should be constituted by the patriotic coalition of parties from RS and his opposition that Harmony enter a coalition with the Coalition for United and Democratic B&H. Whether the split in SNS was caused only by that, or whether causes are deeper, it is hard to tell. Knezevic is not known as a man of firm principles who would for their sake sacrifice his privileged party position and post of director general of Telekom of RS, so that his departure will continue to be subject to guesses for some time.

Departure of Knezevic has caused concern among the Harmony coalition partners because of the possibility of deeper splits and weakening of party structure of SNS. "This would raise the question of survival of Harmony and could cause much disturbance", claims high official of Harmony who is inclined to defend Knezevic and predicts time of great temptation for SNS.

Among the Socialists there is still a latent conflict between two political factions which could become even more radical because of departure of Radisic to an important state post (Presidency of B&H). For a long time, there is a demand for modernisation of political strategy of the Socialists and change of the party's name. Dragutin Ilic, vice president of the Socialists and head of the group of deputies from this party, imposed himself as a politician of recognisable profile and unquestioned authority around whom party membership could gather and cause a conflict of party factions.

Social Democrats of prime minister Dodik are handicapped by the illness of their, according to many, the first and most important member - Nenad Bastinac. Bastinac has so far successfully and very skilfully used the position of the assembly deputy to promote his party. After he was forced to withdraw for medical treatment, the Social Democrats have not yet promoted a person who could take his place. Dodik's role, which is not always gratifying for plitical promotion of the party he belongs to, will not be sufficient to maintain the trend of growth and establish firm party structure.

Departure of Radisic, Bastinac and Knezevic will bring new men to the surface. In complicated political relations which are revealed at the time of constituting parliamentary and executive power, this could lead to unexpected shifts among members of Harmony coalition.

Branko Peric

AIM)