Hundred Days of Montenegrin Government

Economy Limited by Politics

AIM Podgorica, 10 November, 1998

Results of the first hundred days of joint work of the coalition "reformist" government of the Republic of Montenegro offers plenty of arguments both to those who support it with more or less reservations, but also to those who oppose it. Both the ones and the others have plenty of arguments to corroborate their evaluations, but not enough to prove that it is excusively either successful or unsuccessful, so that all one van say with certainty is that all assessments are premature.

The election slogan of the ruling coalition of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the National Party (NS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP): "We have deserved, we know, we shall, we can - live better", is still nothing but a promise. Life in Montenegro is no better. On the contrary. Industrial production in the first ten months of 1998 has gone down in reference to the same period last year by 5.3 per cent. At the same time, the earnings are by 6.3 per cent lower.

On the other hand, the employed in Montenegro for the first time have higher salaries than their colleagues in Serbia. The average September salary in Montenegro is almost by one fifth higher than the average salary in the neighboring republic. Similar is the case with pensions. While the Montenegrin retirement and disabled retirement fund, despite the lack of large sums of money from the federal budget which it is entitled to pursuant the law, is about to make the payment of the first part of the September pensions, while calculations have been made in Serbia according to which the authorities owe their pensioners eight monthly incomes.

Every comparison with Serbia would be inappropriate, of course, if one could disregard the fact that it is the incomparably larger part of the joint state - FRY, as well as that in Belgrade, past the knowledge and without the consent of Podgorica, decisions of crucial significance for Montenegro are made. That is why it is possible to agree with the Montenegrin prime minister Filip Vujanovic who in the assessment of the performance of his government said that "in the first hundred days the government operated in an exceptionally inconvenient ambience".

"Federal government worked to the detriment of Montenegro. The country was shaken by the crisis in Kosovo and the threat of military intervention of NATO", Vujanovic explained, concluding that "in such conditions the maximum was achieved".

Many would not agree with the latter statement. They remind that the current authorities have once promised that they would protect Montenegrin conscripts from dying in the conflicts in Kosovo; that they would open borders with the neighbours; that they would privatise the economy and begin the process of voucher privatisation; that they would re-establish control of the airports in Podgorica and Tivat; protect themselves of frequent monetary coups,..., and that almost nothing of what they had pomised has been done.

In fact, Montenegrin authorities still have not managed to bring their newly elected delegation into the Chamber of the Republics of the Federal Assembly, which is a threat to the fundamental principle of proclaimed equality in the federation. Should it be added that federal prime minister Momir Bulatovic and his cabinet, which are for more than six months in Montenegro called "the so-called" and "self-proclaimed", are reinforcing their position at the post they are holding past the will of Montenegrin majority.

That is why the government in Montenegro has been forced, instead to carry out the promised economic and political reform, to draw moves at the last minute which could repair damage caused by acts of the federal administration. And it has often quite deliberately worked against the interest of Montenegro. An example is the decision of Bulatovic's government to ban economic cooperation with Slovenia at the moment when Montenegro was about to realise the first instalment of the credit granted in Ljubljana. Or another is the malice with which the official Belgrade commented on forcible landing of planes of Montenegro Air Lines on international flights because of escalation of the conflict in Kosovo. It is needless to even mention illegal confiscation of foreign currency that belonged to Montenegrobank which took place at Belgrade airport and that this money still has not been returned to the owner, because it belongs more in the sphere of economic crime.

As counter-measures, the Montenegrin government has claimed such authorisations which belong to the federal administration. The most prominent and the most useful for Montenegro was the decision on issuing importing permits to entrepreneurs from Montenegro on its own accord. In this way 75 million dollar worth of commodities has been imported in Momntenegro in the past three months, while the republican budget has become wealthier for more than hundred million dinars. At the same time, Montengrin authorities have "conquered" the customs offices and, at least for the time being, taken the lead in the struggle for control of the branch of the National Bank of Yugoslavia in Podgorica.

Nevertheless, the following warning given by Nebojsa Medojevic, member of Group 17, turned out to be true: "The planned reforms cannot be carried out as long as Montenegro is in such a state community. It is clear that the federal administration is under pressure exerted by Milosevic pursuing an anti-reformist, mafia-like policy, and it is not realistic to expect that anything can be done in this sense. In such an environment, the maximum that can be achieved by the administraztion in Montenegro is to make life for its citizens by five or ten per cent better than that in Serbia".

Numerous ministers in Montenegrin government were quite aware of this limitation, but an obstacle stood in the way to overcoming it - politics. Put in a tight spot by accusations on the one hand of "separatism" and on the other of "unitarism", the authorities in Podgorica are from the very beginning walking the tight-rope, trying to establish the correct equilibrium between its "Montenegrindom" and its "Yugoslavdom". This is understandable when one has in mind that among the ruling coalition there are completely opposite views of the future of FRY and the position of Montenegro in it.

While minister of religion Slobodan Tomovic proclaims the Serb Orthodox Church the state Church, violating in this way the provisions of the Constitution of Montenegro, his colleague Vojin Djukanovic is announcing that Montenegro will begin next year with its own economic program prepared independently both from the federal state and Serbia. During all that time government secretary of information Bozidar Jaredic is sticking strictly to the idea of "Yugoslavdom", and he is doing his best to enable Belgrade independent media which are targets of repression of the Serbian regime to work. However, rigidity of the regime in Belgrade might turn this attempt into a "separatist" act should Jaredic make his threat effective that he would introduce reciprocity in preventing distribution of undesirable press from the other republic.

However, it would be naive to lay all failures of Montenegrin authorities at the door of someone else, even if it were Slobodan Milosevic. The just seriously initiated process of privatization of Montenegrin economy has brought too many unpleasant surprises for the Montenegrin government which is in charge of its implementation to win applause. Directors of state funds have deluded workers of Niksic brewery Trebjesa concerning its sale to Interbrow from Belgium. Former federal prime minister Milan Panic and his ICN concern, in the absence of any competition got hold of one third of shares of "Simo Milosevic" Institute in Igalo. Swiss "Glencor", without the customary call for tenders, acquired the right to control the most important Montenegrin enterprise

• the aluminium combine - in the next five years. Numerous doubts and suspicions about the interests that led Montenegrin negotiators remained after closing of this deal.

Vujanovic's government can also be reproached for the almost two-month delay of the announced process of mass voucher privatisation in the part which solely depends on the readiness and capability of Montenegrin authorities to prepare the adequate legal foundation. Unfortunately, these are probably not the greatest reproaches that can be attributed to the work of the government of Montenegro.

All things considered, one may conclude that the greatest success of the government formed by members of the coalition "For Better Life" is that they are still together. The leaders of the three different parties have so far managed to overcome personal intolerance, numerous political challenges and traps, and to remain on the same team. And to what extent such behavior is the result of an endeavour to contribute to the prosperity of Montenegro, and to what extent it is the result of a wish to remain in power at all costs, remains to be seen.

Zoran RADULOVIC

(AIM Podgorica)