Elections in Macedonia

Albanians in the Government?t

Coalition of the "rightist and nationalist" VMRO-DPMNE and the Democratic Alternative which is closer to the centre, scored a decisive victory against the "leftist" Social Democratic Alliance and proved that Macedonia was ready "for changes"

AIM Skopje, 4 November, 1998

Hardly anyone outside Macedonia knows that the nationalist party VMRO-DPMNE was the winner in the first multi-party elections in this state (1990). This fact has almost completely been forgotten even here, because the winners of the elections at the time could not find a partner to form the government with, and the current authorities invested an effort to wipe out results of the first elections from the collective memory of the nation. That is why after the results of the third parliamentary elections the following question arises: have the Macedonians gone back to their ideological favourites, or that same VMRO-DPMNE, with the same leader, Ljubce Georgijevski, this time in a coalition with the Democratic Alternative (DA) of Vasil Tupurkovski rightfully anticipated that Macedonia was ready "for changes", and with this slogan set out in the struggle for voters' souls, and, as it turned out, won a more than decisive victory.

Whatever may have been the case, precise quantifications of the voters' will have remained, which show that a complete change of authorities has occurred in Macedonia. After all the addition and subtraction, division and multiplication (the elections were conducted in a combination of majority and proportional system), two days after sealing of ballot boxes in the second round, the State Electoral Commission declared that the coalition "For Changes" (VMRO-DPMNE and DA) had won 58 seats in the assembly. In other words, it needs only another three votes to control the majority in the single-chamber parliament of 120 seats. The previous absolute holders of power in this state, the Social Democratic Alliance (SDSM) of prime minister Branko Crvenkovski (and of the head of the state Kiro Gligorov) won the "modest" 28 seats, while until now they have had 61. It turned out, however, that along with the victorious coalition, political parties of ethnic Albanians also won a specific victory of their own. Although ideologically different, the moderate Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) of Abdurrahman Aliti and the "radical" Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA) of Arben Xhaferi have established a kind of a partnership and, with the ratio of 13:12, won together 25 seats in the assembly, which can be considered as the optimum in relation to the composition of the electorate. And, when the outline of a new political ambience in Macedonia is concerned, this would be the end. Some parties which were, without any foundation, considered to be big, experienced a complete fiasco.

The Liberal Democrats of Petar Gosev and Stojan Andov won hardly four seats in the parliament, and the Socialist Party of Ljuboisav Ivanov only two. The remaining one seat was won by Amdi Bajram, leader of the Union of the Romanies, just in order to be the witness of picturesqueness of Macedonian parliament from the time of rudimentary multipartism. Two seats in the assembly have not yet been taken, but that cannot change anything anymore.

As soon as the results of the voters' will had become evident, leaders of the victorious coalition declared for the public that they would continue to pursue the same course of development of Macedonia as the previous authorities. Ljubco Georgijevski stated that the government which he would form, in the foreign political sphere, would remain on the same course of integration into European organizations, but that inside the country it would devote special attention to revival of the economy and alleviating social injustice. As concerning the victory he said that it belonged also to Social Democrats, because they would teach them democracy. Vasil Tupurkovski announced that the new authorities would preserve everythging good that they had inherited from the previous. Defeated prime minister Branko Crvenkovski, politely admitted the defeat but also elegantly failed to fulfill his promise that he would publicly congratulate the winners. "We have responsibly ruled this state, and now we will show what it is like to have a responsible and powerful opposition", said Crvenkovski. A large part of the media inclined towards the former authorities, with pronounced enthusiasm, repeated the fact that the Social Democrats peacefully surrendered power, showing that perhaps they had secretly hoped that this would not happen, and at the same time striking a blow at the departing team, which, to be perfectly honest, did not deserve to be suspected of being capable of such drastic attacks on democratic accomplishments.

A separate analysis would be necessary to explain reasons why SDSM's rating has so catastrophically dropped despite the fact that it has undoubtedly achieved results in emancipation of Macedonia from former Yugoslavia, its international recognition and significant reputation in the international community, especially in comparison with its immediate surroundings. The seed of defeat in these elections was sown back at the time of the glorious victory in the last (1994) elections. At the time SDSM (in a coalition with LP and SP) won almost 100 seats in the Assembly, and later, partnership with the Albanians' PDP in the executive authorities, ensured almost hundred per cent support for the government in the parliament. Since all party leaders were members of the cabinet, the government imposed itself on the legislature, and the government substituted or, to say the least, pushed to the margins all the other institutions, including the head of the state. The process of executing power was created solely by the top leaders of the SDSM and there was no institutional correctives. Fascination with quick reforms and the aspiration towards prompt joining the "big" world, simply sweeped all the problems arising in this country under the carpet. Consequences were economic recession, the highest unemployment rate in Europe, drastic stratification of the society and rapid impoverishment of a large portion of the population, but also uncontrolled increase of crime, bribery and corruption. Many analysts say that SDSM simply had to be punished for this type of rule and that this is the reason for its crushing defeat. The last communist leader in Macedonia Petar Gosev declared that the people had voted for VMRO-DPMNE because this party was capable of punishing the former authorities the way they deserved to be punished.

The first experience, however, indicates that the winning coalition has no intention to be harsh on the defeated. Instead of revanchism, its leaders are offering cooperation for the good of Macedonia. Ljubco Georgijevski who will be nominated by president Gligorov to form the new government, even declared that, if he won the majority, he would look for a "third partner" to form the government. He has not addressed an offer to anyone yet, so it can just be guessed who that will be. It would be only natural for him to address the oppositionist Liberal Democratic Party which could bring him the majority in the assembly with its four votes. It is hard to believe, however, that Georgijevski, who has in the meantime transformed from an aggressive chauvinist into a pragmatic moderate civil-oriented politician, would miss the opportunity to neglect one of the most significant achievements of the previous authorities, its multiethnic structure, whatever that may mean. The natural continuity of power would also imply partnership with one (why not both) of the parties with Albanian ethnic prefix. Leaders of "Albanian" parties have not a priori rejected this possibility, although Arben Xhaferi, leader of DPA, is more inclined towards it, although along with the party of the future candidate for prime minister, bears the attribute of radicalism. Abdurrahman Aliti and his PDP would rather share the destiny of its partners from the previous authorities, SDSM. But, Aliti is a very pragmatic politician with an unusual intuition and impeccable reflex.

Georgijevski, of course, knows that without the Albanians in the excutive power, it will neither be the government of the state of Macedonia nor will it have full international legitimacy. There are opinions that "experts" of Albanian origin might be included in the government, and in Democratic Alternative of Vasil Tupurkovski there are quite a few activists from the ranks of the ethnic Albanian population. The fact remains, however, that they would not be legitimate representatives of politically organized ethnic Albanians, but "ikebana Albanians" as quite tactlessly the usually moderate and steady Abdurahman Aliti (dis)qualified them. Regardless of political taste, this is what things are like at least for the time being.

AIM Skopje

BUDO VUKOBRAT