The Wrong Reply to the Greek Voters' Messages

From "Modernism" to "Populism?"

AIM Athens, 30 October, 1998

"Costas Simitis, in the 34 months he is on the helm of the government's ship -in the head of which [PASOK Secretary General] Costas Scandalidis has read the name "Titanic"- belied all those who had hopes for a prudent management of state affairs. Problems have grown and the state apparatus has become increasingly hostile towards those it has a mission to serve, the citizens" (Eleftherotypia 27/10/1998). This quote described very succinctly the reason for PASOK's defeat at the prefecture and municipal elections of 11 and 18 October 1998.

The defeat appeared very large, as socialist PASOK won fewer prefectures than conservative ND and lost to it not only the country's three largest cities (Athens, Salonica, and Piraeus) -which had happened again in 1986- but also traditional bastions of the center left like Patras and Larisa, for the first time since the restoration of democracy in 1974. However, when looking at the actual votes of the first round, the defeat was not that big. Comparing with the 1996 parliamentary elections, there was a swing away form PASOK and towards ND of only 1.5%, while there was also another swing of 1% away from the socialist splinter party DIKKI to the orthodox communist party KKE. So, the first round results put the two main parties at a par with 40% of the votes each (7% for KKE, 5% for left reformist Coalition, and 4% for DIKKI).

However, what transformed this modest swing of the first round into an impressive defeat in the second round was the apparently unprecedented number of voters of the three smaller leftist parties who did not vote for the socialist candidates in the second round, opting instead for abstention or blank vote, if not, in many cases, for a vote for their conservative rivals. The disappointment of the voters to the left of PASOK was so great that they wanted to send a resounding message to the government, even via the election of conservative candidates. Such widespread "deviant" behavior was unthinkable 15 years ago, and the conservatives can rightly rejoice for the collapse of the traditional cleavages: in fact, the losses of Patras, Larisa, and probably Salonica, as well as a large number of smaller cities were the result of this new behavior.

What disappointed so many Greeks was the apparent decline in the efficiency of the state apparatus. This became clear in two series of events, one in the summer and one in the fall. First, Greece was ravaged by the worst forest fires ever and the state authorities appeared impotent whether to put them down or to catch the supposed arsons. For over a month, the main news focused on that problem, especially as Greek television news is stressing, if not exaggerating news that announce disasters, crimes, scandals, etc.

Then came an avalanche of negative news concerning police. In the background of revelations about policemen involvement in racketeering, prostitution rings, drug traffic etc., Greek police also had the misfortune of one of its worst failures covered live on television. An escaped convict, Sorin Mattei, managed to be avoiding arrest twice by taking hostages. The first time, the hostage was no other than a policeman and Mattei was let go not to endanger the life of the officer. The second time, police special forces surprised him in a hide out but he managed once more to escape and took hostages a near by family. The story ended with the police leadership itself (!) negotiating with Mattei either in front of the apartment or via a television channel (!) until a decision was taken to move in: the result was a hostage dead, two policemen crippled and Mattei injured.

The police leadership was immediately replaced but within 48 hours Mattei died in the infirmary of the prison where he was transferred from a state hospital though he was under heavy sedation. No matter what the courts will decide in the future, most Greeks believed that Mattei was "conveniently" eliminated by an embarrassed and/or vengeful police with the hospital doctors as accomplices. Hardly a reassuring picture for a society that has seen crime quintupled in the course of the last decade.

This image of complete disarray of the state was partly unfair to the Simitis government. In the nearly three years in power, it had managed to steer Greece towards some long overdue reforms aimed at modernizing society and allowing the country to join the EU=92s EMU (Economic and Monetary Union). In foreign policy, pragmatism replaced grandstanding, thus helping Greece significantly improve its relations with its Balkan neighbors (with the traditional exception of Turkey) and cease being seen as the black ship by its allies in NATO, the EU, and the OSCE. There were even steps ahead in human rights-related issues, though here the improvement was modest and hesitant even if the intentions were clearly good.

The way Simitis decided to react to these challenges was disheartening, and reminiscent of the populist antics of his predecessor Andreas Papandreou. On 29 October 1998, he carried out a marginal and negligible reshuffle of his cabinet, instead of a profound restructuring and sizing down of the very large cabinet, most people considered necessary. Moreover, without really presenting any new ideas or policy decisions, he asked for a vote of confidence in parliament (scheduled for 3 November 1998) so as to silence all his critics, including if not mainly those inside his party. Even prominent members of his own modernist party wing voiced their displeasure.

Worse, since already before the elections and soon after the Mattei incident, the Greek Prime Minister, as well as some key ministers, have engaged into what would elsewhere be considered as xenophobia. In late September 1998, Simitis said that "migrants contribute in the rise of criminality" and his second, Minister of Public Administration and Interior Alekos Papadopoulos, announced a new law on migration (at a time where the old one dating from 1997 has yet to be fully implemented) as "migration is the Greek society=92s major problem in recent years." These statements were helped by the persistent reference to Mattei as "the Romanian" although he grew up in Greece with his Greek mother. Reference made even by state authorities including the government spokesman.

A month later, things turned more alarming. First Minister of Public Order George Romaios stated on 26 October 1998 that "Greek people are concerned by criminality and those to blame most for criminality are the illegal immigrants." Well one may argue that Romaios was replaced 72 hours later and may not matter. Nevertheless, in the very ceremonial address to the nation on the occasion of the national day of 28 October, Simitis himself imitated his Minister, this time generalizing for Europe as a whole: "criminality is due mostly to the unchecked economic migration in European countries." The fact that all statistics for Greece as well as the EU belie this argument does not matter For the record, all official statistics in Greece show that foreigners are responsible for some 4-5% of all crimes and it has to be recalled that they make up some 4-5% of the country=92s population.. Although Simitis can hardly be called a racist, he and his government have been using what elsewhere may be called "Le Pen-styled rhetoric," probably to cover up by "explaining away" the authorities' failure to stop the spectacular rise of criminality.

It remains to be seen whether, despite all these negative omens, the Greek government will be able to recover over time its modernist taint. Or whether, in view of two years of electioneering, for the European parliament in 1999 and for the national parliament in 2000, it will instead continue along the traditional populist PASOK path to help it rescue its hold of power in the next millenary, whatever the cost for the country such a choice may result in. It will be unfortunate for Greece if the cartoonist of leftist Avghi (30/10/1998) is proven right. He shows Simitis dictating the reshuffle's list to Government Spokesman Dimitris Reppas: after the list of ministerial replacements he adds one more, "Simitis replaced by Andreas" [Papandreou].

Panayote Elias Dimitras